Socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter and 2024

1. Gross domestic product growth rate

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2024 was estimated to increase by 7.55% over the same period last year, only lower than the fourth quarter of 2017 and 2018 in the period 2011-2024 , maintaining the trend of each quarter being higher than the previous quarter (the first quarter increased by 5.98%, the second quarter increased by 7.25%, the third quarter increased by 7.43%). Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.99%, contributing 4.86% to the total added value of the entire economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.35%, contributing 44.03%; the service sector increased by 8.21%, contributing 51.11%. Regarding GDP use in the fourth quarter of 2024, final consumption increased by 7.54% over the same period last year; accumulated assets increased by 7.98%; exports of goods and services increased by 11.35%; imports of goods and services increased by 13.49%.

GDP in 2024 was estimated to increase by 7.09% over the previous year, only lower than the growth rates of 2018, 2019 and 2022 in the period 2011-2024 . In the increase In the total added value of the entire economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.27%, contributing 5.37%; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.24%, contributing 45.17%; the service sector increased by 7.38%, contributing 49.46%.

 Figure 1. GDP and VA growth rates of regions by quarter in 2024 (%)

The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in 2024 achieved a positive growth rate of 3.27% despite being affected by natural disasters and floods. In particular, the output of many agricultural products increased, livestock developed stably, aquaculture output increased quite well. Specifically, the added value of the agricultural sector in 2024 increased by 2.94% over the previous year, contributing 0.26 percentage points to the total added value of the entire economy; the forestry sector increased by 5.03% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.03 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 4.03%, contributing 0.10 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, the industry positive recovery and strong growth compared to 2023. The added value of the industrial sector in 2024 increased by 8.32% over the previous year, only lower than the 8.52% increase in 2022 in the 2019-2024 period , contributing 2.70 percentage points to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy. Of which, the manufacturing industry increased by 9.83%, lower than the increase in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018 in the 2011-2024 period , contributing 2.49 percentage points. The water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 9.43%, contributing 0.06 percentage points. The electricity production and distribution increased by 10.05%, contributing 0.37 percentage points. The mining and quarrying decreased by 7.24%, contributing 0.21 percentage points. The construction increased by 7.87%, contributing 0.57 percentage points.

Trade and tourism activities maintained high growth momentum, contributing positively to the growth of the service sector. The added value of the service sector in 2024 increased by 7.38%, higher than the growth rate of 6.91% in 2023 . Some market service sectors with large proportions made important contributions to the growth rate of total added value of the entire economy, such as: Wholesale and retail increased by 7.96% over the previous year, contributing 0.80 percentage points; the transportation and warehousing increased by 10.82%, contributing 0.68 percentage points; finance, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.11%, contributing 0.43 percentage points; accommodation and food services increased by 9.76%, contributing 0.26 percentage points.

Regarding the economic structure in 2024, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 11.86%; the industry and construction sector accounts for 37.64%; the service sector accounts for 42.36%; product taxes minus product subsidies account for 8.14% (The corresponding structure in 2023 was 11.86%; 37.58%; 42.30%; 8.26%).

Regarding GDP use in 2024, final consumption increased by 6.57% compared to 2023; accumulated assets increased by 7.20%; exports of goods and services increased by 15.45%; imports of goods and services increased by 16.10%.

GDP scale at current prices in 2024 was estimated to reach 11,511.9 trillion VND, equivalent to 476.3 billion USD^[1]. GDP per capita in 2024 at current prices was estimated at 114 million VND/person, equivalent to 4,700 USD, an increase of 377 USD compared to 2023. Labor productivity of the entire economy in 2024 at current prices was estimated at 221.9 million VND/worker (equivalent to 9,182 USD/worker, an increase of 726 USD compared to 2023); at comparable prices, labor productivity increased by 5.88% due to improved qualifications of workers (the rate of trained workers with degrees and certificates in 2024 was estimated at 28.3%, 1.1 percentage points higher than in 2023).

2. Agricultural, forestry and fishery production

a) Agriculture

Agricultural, forestry and fishery production in 2024 took place in complex weather conditions but will still maintain positive growth, meeting domestic and export demand. The rice area in 2024 was estimated at 7.13 million hectares, an increase of 12,000 hectares compared to the previous year; rice yield was estimated at 60.9 quintals/ha, a decrease of 0.2 quintals/ha; rice output reached 43.46 million tons, down 33.6 thousand tons. Grain output in 2024 reached 47.87 million tons, down 65.0 thousand tons compared to 2023, of which corn output reached 4.4 million tons, down 31.4 thousand tons.

– Spring rice: In the 2024 spring rice crop, the whole country planted 2.95 million hectares, up 1.5 thousand hectares compared to 2023; rice yield reached 68.8 quintals/ha, up 0.4 quintals/ha, output reached 20.33 million tons, up 145.0 thousand tons.

– Summer-autumn rice: The area of summer-autumn rice cultivation nationwide reached 1.91 million hectares, down 3.6 thousand hectares compared to 2023; the yield reached 58.4 quintals/ha, an increase of 0.8 quintals/ha; the output reached 11.16 million tons, an increase of 139.1 thousand tons.

– Autumn-winter rice: Autumn-winter rice area planted 717.9 thousand hectares, an increase of 10.2 thousand hectares compared to the autumn-winter crop in 2023; the yield reached 57.9 quintals/ha, an increase of 0.8 quintals/ha; the output reached 4.16 million tons, an increase of 118.5 thousand tons.

– Winter rice: This year’s winter rice crop nationwide has planted 1.55 million hectares of winter rice, an increase of 3.9 thousand hectares compared to the 2023 winter crop; the estimated rice yield was 50.4 quintals/ha, down 2.9 quintals/ha; the output was 7.81 million tons, down 436.4 thousand tons.

– Annual crops: The planting area of some crops such as corn, peanuts, soybeans decreased compared to the previous year due to low economic efficiency, farmers narrowed production to focus on growing vegetables or switching to growing fruit trees, plants for animal feed, implementing circular agricultural economy.

– Perennial crops: In 2024, the area of perennial crops reached 3,815.5 thousand hectares, up 1.2% over the previous year, of which: Industrial crops reached 2,172.6 thousand hectares, up 0.1%; fruit trees reached 1,302.8 thousand hectares, up 2.6%.

– Livestock: Cattle and buffalo farming tends to decrease, poultry development is stable, and diseases were basically controlled.

b) Forestry

In Q4 2024, the area of newly concentrated planted forests was estimated at 103.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.4% compared to the same period last year, while the damaged forest area was 172.8 hectares, an increase of 24.7%. For the whole year 2024, the area of newly concentrated planted forests was estimated at 301.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous year, while the damaged forest area was 1,627.3 hectares, a decrease of 5.5%.

c) Fisheries

In Q4 2024, total fishery production was estimated at 2,524.5 thousand tons, an increase of 2.4% compared to the same period last year. For the whole year 2024, total fishery production was estimated at 9,547.0 thousand tons, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous year. Of this, aquaculture production was estimated at 5,721.6 thousand tons, an increase of 4.0%, and captured fishery production was estimated at 3,825.4 thousand tons, an increase of 0.3%.

3. Industrial Production

The industrial production index (IIP) in 2024 was estimated to increase by 8.4% compared to the previous year (2023 saw an increase of 1.3%). Specifically, the manufacturing and processing sector grew by 9.6% (2023: 1.5%), contributing 8.4 percentage points to the overall growth. The electricity production and distribution sector increased by 9.5%, contributing 0.8 percentage points. The water supply, waste management, and wastewater treatment sector grew by 10.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points. However, the mining sector contracted by 6.5%, reducing the overall growth rate by 1.0 percentage points.

The consumption index for the manufacturing and processing sector in December 2024 decreased by 5.1% compared to the previous month but increased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. For the whole year 2024, the consumption index for the manufacturing and processing sector increased by 11.3% compared to 2023 (2023 saw an increase of 1.6%).

The inventory index for the manufacturing and processing sector as of December 31, 2024, was estimated to have increased by 10.0% compared to the previous month and by 10.6% compared to the same period last year (same period in 2023: 19.8%). The average inventory ratio for the manufacturing and processing sector in 2024 was 77.1% (2023: 88.0%).

The number of workers employed in industrial enterprises as of December 1, 2024, increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month and by 3.2% compared to the same period last year.

4. Enterprise activities

a) Enterprise registration status ^[2]

– In December, the whole country had nearly 10.0 thousand newly established enterprises, a decrease of 10.4% over the previous month and a decrease of 12.6% over the same period last year; over 8.8 thousand enterprises resumed, up 14.8% and up 38.3%; 4,187 temporarily inactive enterprises, down 1.3% and up 10.1%; 19,886 enterprises ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, up 163.4% and up 128.9%; 2,345 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 22.8% and up 21.2%.

– Overall, in 2024, the whole country had over 233.4 thousand newly registered businesses and return to operation, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; on average, there were nearly 19.5 thousand new businesses established and resumed per month. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market was 197.9 thousand ones, an increase of 14.7%; on average, nearly 16.5 thousand enterprises withdrawing from the market per month.

1. b) Business trends of the enterprise

Evaluating production and business activities of enterprises^[3] in the forth quarter of 2024 compared to the third one, 77.3% of businesses assessed that production and business activities in the forth quarter of 2024 were better and remained stable compared to the previous one (28.6% better and 48.7% stable); 22.7% of businesses rated more difficult^[4]. Compared to the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of businesses rated more favorably than the previous one increased by 5.1%; kept steady up 0.4% and harder down 5.5%.

5. Service activities

a) Retail sales of consumer goods and services

The total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices in December 2024 were estimated to reach 570.7 trillion VND, an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous month and 9.3% compared to the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices were estimated at 1,686.1 trillion VND, up 5.9% from the previous quarter and 9.3% from the same period last year. In 2024, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices were estimated to reach 6,391.0 trillion VND, an increase of 9.0% compared to the previous year (9.4% increased in 2023). Excluding the price factor, it rose by 5.9% (6.8% increased in 2023).

Passenger transport in the fourth quarter of 2024 was estimated at 1,388.9 million passengers, up 9.2% compared to the same period last year and passenger traffic was estimated at 71.4 billion passenger-kilometers, up 10.7%. For the entire year of 2024, passenger carried was estimated to reach 5,067.6 million passengers, an increase of 8.3% compared to the previous year and passenger traffic reached 275.4 billion passenger-kilometers, up 11.6%.

Freight transport in the fourth quarter of 2024, freight transport was estimated at 740.0 million tons, an increase of 12.8% compared to the same period last year and reached 149.6 billion ton-kilometers, up 13.4%. For the entire year of 2024, freight transport was estimated to reach 2,670.6 million tons, up 14.0% compared to the previous year, with a turnover of 545.1 billion ton-kilometers, up 11.8%.

Telecommunications revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was estimated at 89.3 trillion VND, an increase of 3.2% compared to the same period last year. For the entire year of 2024, telecommunications revenue was estimated at 355.4 trillion VND, up 4.0% compared to the previous year (excluding the price factor, the increase was nearly 4.0%).

The number of international visitors to Viet Nam in December 2024 reached 1.75 million, an increase of 27.4% compared to the same period last year. The number of Vietnamese people leaving the country reached 363.1 thousand, an increase of 3.1%. For the entire year, international visitors to Viet Nam reached nearly 17.6 million, up 39.5% compared to the previous year and equal to 97.6% of 2019 – the year before the Covid-19 pandemic; the number of Vietnamese people leaving the country reached 5.3 million, up 5.5% compared to 2023.

6. Banking, insurance, stock market activities

– As of December 25, 2024, the total liquidity increased by 9.42% compared to the end of 2023 (same period last year increased by 10.34%); capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 9.06% (same period last year increased by 11.19%); the economy’s credit growth reached 13.82% (same period last year increased by 11.48%).

– Premium revenue of the entire insurance market in the fourth quarter of 2024 was estimated to increase by 0.2% over the same period last year. In general, in 2024, premium revenue of the entire insurance market was estimated at VND 227.5 trillion, down 0.25% over the previous year.

– As of December 31, 2024, the average trading value reached VND 21,008 billion/session, up 19.5% compared to the average in 2023; the average trading value reached VND 11,802 billion/session, up 81.1% compared to the average of 2023; , the derivatives market had an average trading volume of 211,346 contracts/session, down 10.2%.

7. Development investment

Total social investment capital in the first quarter of 2024 at current prices is estimated at 1,274.5 trillion VND , up 8.7% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in 2024, the total social investment capital at current prices is estimated to reach 3,692.1 trillion VND, up 7.5% over the previous year.

Total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of December 31, 2024, including: newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contribution and share purchase value of foreign investors, reached 38.23 billion USD, down 3.0% over the same period last year. Foreign direct investment realized in Vietnam in 2024 is estimated at 25.35 billion USD, up 9.4% over the previous year.

Vietnam’s overseas investment in 2024 had 164 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total capital of 603.7 million USD from the Vietnamese side, more than double that of the previous year; there were 26 projects adjusting capital with an adjusted capital of 61.1 million USD, down 55.8%. In 2024, Vietnam’s total investment capital abroad (newly granted and adjusted capital) reached 664.8 million USD, an increase of 57.7% over the previous year.

8. State budget revenue and expenditure

Total state budget revenue in December 2024 was estimated at 206.5 trillion VND. Cumulative total state budget revenue in 2024 was estimated at 2,037.5 trillion VND, equal to 119.8% of the annual estimate and an increase of 16.2% over the previous year.

Total state budget expenditure in December 2024 was estimated at VND 283.9 trillion; accumulated expenditure in 2024 was estimated at VND 1,830.8 trillion, equal to 86.4% of the annual estimate and up 5.7 % over the previous year.

9. Export and import of goods and services^[5]

a) Export and import of goods^[6]

 – Export of goods: Export turnover of goods in 12/2024 reached 35.53 billion USD, up 5.3% over the previous month and increased by 12.8% compared to the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, export turnover reached 105.9 billion USD, up 11.5% compared to the same period last year and down 2.5% compared to the third quarter of 2024. Generally in 2024, the export turnover of goods reached 405.53 billion USD, up 14.3% over the previous year.

+ Regarding the structure of exported groups in 2024, the group of processing industry reached 356.74 billion USD, accounting for 88.0%.

 – Import of goods: Import turnover of goods in 12/2024 reached 35.01 billion USD, increased by 7.2% over the previous month and increased by 19.2% compared to the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, import turnover of goods reached 101.9 billion USD, up 14.9% over the same period last year and up 2.2% compared to the third quarter of 2024. Generally in 2024, the import turnover of goods reached 380.76 billion USD, increased by 16.7% over last year.

+ Regarding the structure of imported groups in 2024, the group of production materials reached 356.43 billion USD, accounted for 93.6%.

– Regarding the export and import market of goods in 2024, the United States was the Viet Nam’s largest export market with a turnover of 119.6 billion USD. China remained the largest import market of Viet Nam with a turnover of 144.3 billion USD.

– The trade balance of goods in December had a trade surplus of 0.52 billion USD. Generally in 2024, the trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 24.77 billion USD (last year’s trade surplus was 28.4 billion USD).

b) Export and import of services

In the fourth quarter of 2024, export turnover of services estimated 6.56 billion USD, increased by 16.2% over the same period last year and up 10.5% over previous quarter; import turnover of services estimated 9.57 billion USD, went up by 18.4% over the same period last year and up 25.9% over previous quarter.

In 2024, export turnover of services estimated 23.85 billion USD, went up by 17.7% over last year, of which travel service estimated 12.19 billion USD (accounting for 51.1% of the total turnover), up 33.1%; transportation service estimated 6.52 billion USD (accounting for 27.3%), increased by 5.2%.

Import turnover of service in this year estimated 36.19 billion USD (of which transportation and insurance service fees for imported goods are 12.07 billion USD), up 24.4% over last year, of which transportation service estimated 14.6 billion USD (accounting for 40.3% of the total turnover), increased by 16.0%; travel service estimated 12.57 billion USD (accounting for 34.7%), increased by 60.6%.

The trade balance of services in 2024 had a trade deficit of 12.34 billion USD.

10. Consumer price index, gold price index and US dollar price index

a) Consumer price index, gold price index and US dollar price index

– Consumer price index (CPI) in December 2024 increased by 0.29% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2023, December CPI increased by 2.94%. Average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 2.87% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. For the whole year 2024, CPI increased by 3.63% compared to the previous year, reaching the target set by the National Assembly.

– Gold price index in December 2024 decreased by 1.38% compared to the previous month; increased 31.07% over the same period last year; The average increase for the whole year 2024 is 28.64%.

– US dollar price index in December 2024 increased by 0.09% compared to the previous month; increased 4.31% over the same period last year; The average increase in 2024 is 4.91%.

b) Producer price index

The producer price index of agricultural, forestry and fishing, industry, services, input producer price index and merchandise export price index in the fourth quarter and 2024 tend to increase compared to the same period last year. Last year’s period, the merchandise import price index alone decreased according to the world market. Overall in 2024, the producer price index of agricultural, forestry and fishing increased by 8.56% compared to the previous year; the producer price index of industry increased by 0.59%; the producer price index for services increased by 5.86%; the input producer price index increased by 2.26%; merchandise export price index increased by 1.15%; merchandise import price index decreased by 1.94%.

11. Some social situations

a) Population, labor and employment

The average population in 2024 is estimated at 101.3 million people, an increase of 1,034.5 thousand people, equivalent to an increase of 1.03% compared to 2023. Population quality has improved, fertility has decreased sharply and is basically maintained. replacement fertility rate from 2005 onwards. The death rate remains low, average life expectancy increases due to the achievements of medical development and improved health care.

The labor and employment situation in the fourth quarter of 2024 showed many signs of improvement compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.

The country’s labor force aged 15 and older in the fourth quarter of 2024 is estimated to be 53.2 million people, an increase of 390.1 thousand people over the previous quarter and an increase of 625.3 thousand people over the same period last year. Overall, in 2024, the labor force aged 15 and over is nearly 53.0 million people, an increase of 575.4 thousand people compared to the previous year.

Employed persons in the fourth quarter of 2024 are estimated to be 52.1 million people, an increase of 414.9 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 639.1 thousand people over the same period last year. Overall, in 2024, there will be 51.9 million employed workers, an increase of 585.1 thousand people (equivalent to an increase of 1.1%) compared to the previous year.

The underemployment rate among the working age in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 1.65%, down 0.22 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and down 0.32 percentage points over the same period last year. Overall, in 2024, the underemployment rate among the working age population is 1.84%, down 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous year; of which the underemployment rate in urban areas is 1.28%, down 0.32 percentage points; the underemployment rate in rural areas is 2.20%, down 0.07 percentage points.

The average income of employees in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 8.2 million VND/month, an increase of 550 thousand VND compared to the third quarter of 2024 and an increase of 890 thousand VND compared to the same period in 2023. Overall, in 2024, the average income of employees is 7.7 million VND/month, an increase of 8.6%, equivalent to an increase of 610 thousand VND compared to the previous year.

The unemployment rate among the working age in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.22%, down 0.01 percentage point compared to the previous quarter and down 0.04 percentage point over the same period last year. The unemployment rate among the working age population in 2024 is 2.24%, down 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous year, of which 2.53% in urban areas; rural areas is 2.05%.

b) Residential life and social security assurance

Income and living standards of households have improved. Social security work continues to receive attention from all levels and sectors from central to local levels. According to preliminary results of the 2024 Residential Living Standards Survey, the average income per capita at current prices in 2024 will reach about 5.4 million VND/person/month, an increase of 8.8% compared to 2023.

According to reports compiled from localities, from the beginning of the year until now (as of December 28, 2024), the total support for people with meritorious services and relatives of people with meritorious services to the revolution is nearly 33.9 trillion VND. copper; Support for social protection subjects according to Decree No. 20/2021/ND-CP dated March 15, 2021 is 27.3 trillion VND; Support for poor households, near-poor households, households in difficult circumstances, and social policy households not covered by Decree No. 20/2021/ND-CP is more than 4.9 trillion VND; Extraordinary support arising locally is more than 3.8 trillion VND. There are more than 26.7 million health insurance cards/books/free medical examination and treatment cards distributed and given to beneficiaries.

As of December 30, 2024, to promptly provide rice support to people severely affected by storm No. 3, the Government has decided to provide 619.9 tons of rice support to people. In 2024, the Government, ministries, branches and localities have supported people with nearly 22.4 thousand tons of rice, of which: The Government supported 10.4 thousand tons of rice for hunger relief on the occasion of the Lunar New Year Giap Thin for 693.4 thousand people; 5.9 thousand tons of rice to relieve hunger in 2024 for 396.3 thousand people; Nearly 1.1 thousand tons of rice provided relief to about 70.2 thousand people affected by natural disasters.

c) Traffic accident

This year, there were 23,484 traffic accidents nationwide, killing 10,944 people and injuring 17,342 people. On average, every day in 2024, there will be 64 traffic accidents nationwide, killing 30 people and injuring 47 people.

d) Damage caused by natural disasters

In 2024, natural disasters left 570 people dead and missing; 2,204 people were injured; 302.4 thousand hectares of rice and 111.4 thousand hectares of crops were damaged; 5.4 million livestock and poultry died; 296.8 thousand houses collapsed, swept away and damaged. The total value of property damage caused by natural disasters in 2024 is estimated at nearly 89,253.6 billion VND, 17.5 times higher than in 2023.

[1]The average central VND/USD exchange rate in 2024 is 24,170.59 VND.

[2] Source: National Business Registration Information System, Department of Business Registration Management, Ministry of Planning and Investment, received November 02^nd, 2024. Implementing Decree No. 62/2024/ND-CP dated June 07^th, 2024 of the Government (effective from August 01^st, 2024), the data period on business registration in the month is calculated from the 1st to the last day of the reporting month. Particularly for time indicators (enterprises returning to operations, enterprises temporarily suspending business for a limited period of time, enterprises temporarily suspending operations awaiting dissolution procedures), the data period is the months before the time. August 01^st, 2024 is calculated from the 21^st of the month preceding the reporting month to the 20^th of the reporting month.

^[3] To assess the production and business situation of enterprises in the forth quarter of 2024, the General Statistics Office conducted a survey of 30,576 enterprises, including: 6,327 enterprises in the manufacturing industry sector; 6,393 construction enterprises; 17,856 businesses in the trade and service sector, representing 63 provinces and cities.

^[4] The 3^rd quarter of 2024: 71.8% of businesses assessed that their production and business situation would be better and remain stable (23.5% better and 48.3% stable); 28.2% of businesses rated it more difficult.

[5] The value of export turnover is calculated at F.O.B price and import turnover is calculated at C.I.F price (including transportation and insurance costs of imported goods).

[6] Preliminary import and export data for December 2024 provided by the Viet Nam Customs on January 3, 2025.