Socio-economic situation report in the first quarter of 2024

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 was estimated to increase by 5.66% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of the first quarter of 2020-2023[1]. Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.98%, contributing 6.09% to the overall growth; the industry and construction sector increased by 6.28%, contributing 41.68%; the service sector increased by 6.12%[2], contributing 52.23%.

In the area of agriculture, forestry and fishery, the output of some perennial crops and the output of a number of main livestock products increased positively compared to the same period last year; aquaculture grew positively. The value added of the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 2.81% over the same period last year, contributing 0.26 percentage points to the increase in total value added of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 4.08% but accounted for a low proportion, so it contributed only 0.02 percentage points; the fisheries sector increased by 3.46%, contributing 0.08 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, industrial production prospered and continued growth momentum from the end of 2023. The value added of industries in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 6.18% compared to the same period last year (same period last year decreased by 0.73%), contributing 2.02 percentage points to the increase in total added value of the whole economy. The processing and manufacturing industry is the growth engine of the whole economy with an increase rate of 6.98%[3], contributing 1.73 percentage points; electricity production and distribution increased by 11.97 %, contributing 0.45 percentage points; water supply, garbage and wastewater management and treatment increased by 4.99%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; mining industry decreased by 5.84% (coal mining output decreased by 0.3% and crude oil production decreased by 3.2%), reducing 0.2 percentage points. The construction industry increased by 6.83%, much higher than the growth rate of 1.87% of the first quarter of 2023, contributing 0.4 percentage points.

In the service sector, trade activities took place vibrantly, tourism recovered strongly thanks to the effectiveness of favorable visa policies and tourism stimulus policies, export turnover of key products increased. The contribution of some service industries to the increase in total value added in the first quarter of this year is as follows: The transportation and warehousing industry increased by 10.58% over the same period last year, contributing 0.68 percentage points. Accommodation and catering services increased by 8.34% over the same period last year, contributing 0.24 points ; wholesale and retail increased by 6.94%, contributing 0.76 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 5.2%, contributing 0.32 percentage points; The information and communication sector increased by 4.14%, contributing 0.28 percentage points..

Regarding the structure of the economy in the first quarter of 2024, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 11.77%; industry and construction accounted for 35.73%; service sector accounted for 43.48%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.02%[4].

Regarding GDP use in the first quarter of 2024, final consumption increased by 4.93% over the same period last year, contributing 56.77% to the overall growth rate; accumulated assets increased by 4.69%, contributed 24.07%; exports of goods and services increased by 18%; import of goods and services increased by 17.08%, the difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 19.16%.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

a) Agriculture

– Spring paddy: As of mid-March, the whole country had planted 2,926.1 thousand hectares of spring rice, down 1.3 thousand hectares compared to the spring crop in 2023. Of which, the Mekong Delta region reached 1,478.6 thousand hectares, an increase of 8.9 thousand hectares and have harvested 868.8 thousand hectares, accounting for 58.8% of the cultivated area and equal to 106.1% of the same period last year, with yield estimated to be approximately the same as the previous crop; production was estimated at 10.7 million tons, an increase of 65 thousand tons.

– Winter rice: By mid-March, the Mekong Delta region winter rice cultivation area reached 183.1 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.2 thousand hectares compared to last year’s crop, yield reached high with 53.7 quintals/ha, an increase of 2.3 quintals/ha compared to last year’s crop, production reached 974.4 thousand tons, an increase of 60.3 thousand tons.

– Annual crops: As of mid-March, the planting progress of some winter-spring crops such as beans, corn, and sweet potatoes increased compared to the same period last year; The area of peanuts and soybeans decreased mainly due to low economic efficiency.

– Perennial trees: The output of some perennial crops in the first quarter of 2024 increased compared to the same period last year due to favorable weather and stable product prices.

– Livestock: Buffalo and cow husbandry tends to decrease; pig and poultry farming have developed well. At the end of 3/2024, pig population increased by 3.3% compared to the same period in 2023; poultry population increased by 2.1%; cattle population decreased by 0.1%; buffalo population decreased by 2.5%.

b) Forestry

The area of ​​newly concentrated planted forests in 3/2024 was estimated at 19.2 thousand hectares, up 0.9% over the same period last year; the damaged forest area was 163.7 hectares, up 7.8%, in which: The destroyed forest area was 94.3 hectares, up 6.5%; the burned forest area was 69.4 hectares, up 9.5%. In the 1^st quarter of 2024, the area of ​​newly concentrated planted forest was estimated at 37.3 thousand ha, down 1.4% over the same period last year due to rainy weather, it affected the progress of afforestation in some localities; the damaged forest area was 252.3 hectares, up 0.3% over the same period last year, of which the destroyed forest area was 182.2 ha, up 1.1%; the burned forest area was 70.1 hectares, down 1.9%.

c) Fishery

Fishery output in 3/2024 was estimated at 725.4 thousand tons, up 2.4% over the same period last year, including: Aquaculture output reached 400.3 thousand tons, up 3.9%; the caught fishery output reached  325.1 thousand tons, up 0.7%. Generally, in the 1^st quarter of 2024, fishery output was estimated at 1,941.5 thousand tons, up 2.2% over the same period last year, including fish reached 1,440.8 thousand tons, up 2%; shrimp reached 193 thousand tons, up 3.9%; other fishery products reached 307.7 thousand tons, up 2%.

3. Industrial production

The added value of the entire industry in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated to increase by 6.18% over the same period last year. Of which, the manufacturing increased by 6.98%, contributing 1.73 percentage points to the overall growth of the entire economy; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 11.97%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 4.99%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; the mining and quarying decreased by 5.84%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points

– Industrial production index for the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year increased in 54 localities and decreased in 9 localities across the country.

– The consumption index of the manufacturing in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 8.2% compared to the same period in 2023 (the same period in 2023 decreased by 2.9%).

– The inventory index of the manufacturing is estimated to increase by 9.8% compared to the same time last month and by 14.1% compared to the same time last year (same time as March 31, 2024 last year increased by 19.8%). The average inventory rate of the manufacturing in the first quarter of 2024 is 68.7% (the average in the first quarter of 2023 is 81.1%).

– The number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of March 1, 2024 increased by 1.3% compared to the same time last month and increased by 1.1% compared to the same time last year.

4. Enterprise activities

a) Enterprise registration status ^[5]

– In March, the whole country had 14.1 thousand newly established enterprises, up 64.3% over the previous month and down 0.7% over the same period last year; more then 3 thousand re-operated enterprises, down 43.4% and down 52%; 4,139 enterprises ceased for a certain time, down 19.6% and down 0.2%; 4,980 enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, an increase of 131.3% and an increase of 44.3%; 1,414 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, a decrease of 6.2% and equal to the same period last year.

– Overall, in the first quarter of 2024, the whole country had more than 59.9 thousand newly registered businesses and return to operation, an increase of 5.1% compared to the same period last year. On average, each month, there were nealry 20 thousand new businesses established and returned to operation. The number of businesses withdrawing from the market was 73.9 thousand, an increase of 22.8%. On average, nearly 24.7 thousand businesses withdraw from the market each month.

b) Business trends of the enterprise

Results of the survey of business trends of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry in the first quarter of 2024 show that 22.1% of enterprises rated it better than the forth quarter of 2023 and expected in the second quarter of 2024, 45.4% of enterprises assessed that the trend would be better compared to the first quarter of 2024.

5. Service activities

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices in 3/2024 was estimated at 509.3 trillion VND, up 0.5% over the previous month and up 9.2% over the same period last year. Overall, in the first quarter of 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices was estimated at 1,537.6 trillion VND, up 8.2% over the same period last year (up 13.9% in the same period in 2023), if excluding the price factor, up 5.1% (the same period in 2023 increased by 10.1%).

 Passenger transport in 3/2024 was estimated at 398.1 million passengers, decreased by 3.8% over the previous month and passenger traffic was 21.7 billion passengers-kilometers, down 6.9%. Overall, in the first quarter of 2024, passenger carried was estimated at 1,199.6 million passengers, up 8.5% over the same period last year and passenger traffic was 66.6 billion passengers.km, increased by 10.7%.

Freight transport in 3/2024 was estimated at 208.1 million tons of freight carried, decreased by 3.1% over the previous month and 41.4 billion tons.km of freight traffic, up 0.8%. Overall, in the first quarter of 2024, freight transport was estimated at  620.1 million tons of freight carried, up 13% over the same period last year and 129.2 billion tons.km of freight traffic, an increase of 11.2%.

Telecommunications activities in the first quarter of 2024 were generally stable with estimated revenue of 89.1 trillion VND, an increase of 3.4% compared to the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, an increase of 3.1%).

International visitors to Viet Nam in 3/2024[6] reached more than 1.6 million, up 4.4% compared to the previous month and increased by 78.6% compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, international visitors to our country reached more than 4.6 million arrivals, up 72% compared to the same period last year and up 3.2% to the same period of 2019 – the year before the Covid-19 pandemic.

6. Banking, insurance, stock market activities

        – As of March 25, 2023, capital mobilization of credit institutions will decrease by 0.76% compared to the end of 2023; credit growth of the economy reached 0.26%.

        – Total premium revenue in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated at VND 53,295 billion, down 4.3% over the same period in 2023.

– Regarding the stock market, the VN-Index tends to increase sharply compared to the end of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the average trading value on the stock market will reach VND 22,529 billion/session, up 28.2% compared to the average of 2023; The average transaction value on the bond market reached VND 9,698 billion/session, up 48.8%.

7. Investment in development

Realized social investment capital in the first quarter of 2024 at current prices is estimated at 613.9 trillion VND, up 5.2% over the same period last year, reflecting the recovery trend of domestic production and business in many industries and fields.

   Total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of March 20, 2024, including: Newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and value of capital contributions and share purchases by foreign investors reached nearly 6.17 billion USD, an increase of 13.4% compared to the same period last year.

Foreign direct investment capital realized in Vietnam in the first three months of 2024 is estimated to reach 4.63 billion USD, up 7.1% over the same period last year.

Vietnam’s investment abroad in the first three months of 2024 has 22 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total Vietnamese capital of 28.7 million USD, down 74.6% over the same period. last year; There were 2 rounds of capital adjusted projects with the adjusted capital increasing by 220 thousand USD, a decrease of 96.5%. In general, Vietnam’s total investment capital abroad (new and adjusted capital) reached 28.9 million USD, down 75.8% over the same period last year.

8. State budget revenue and expenditure

-Total state budget revenue in March, 2024 was estimated at 141.8 trillion VND. The accumulated total state budget revenue in the first quarter of 2024 was estimated at 539.5 trillion VND, equal to 31.7% of the yearly estimate and increasing by 9.8% over the same period last year.

-Total state budget expenditure in March, 2024 was estimated at 140.3 trillion VND; accumulated in the first quarter of 2024 was estimated at 393.5 trillion dong, equaling 18.6% of the year estimate and up 8.3% over the same period last year.

9. Export and import of goods and services

a) Export and import of goods^[7]

Total export and import turnover of goods^[8] in 3/2024 was estimated at 65.09 billion USD, up 35.6% over the previous month and up 12% over the same period last year. Generally, in the first quarter of 2024, the total export and import turnover of goods reached 178.04 billion USD, up 15.5% over the same period last year, of which exports increased by 17%; imports increased by 13.9%. The trade balance of goods had a surplus of 8.08 billion USD.

– Export of goods: Export turnover of goods in 3/2024 was estimated at 34.01 billion USD, up 37.8% over the previous month and increased by 14.2% compared to the same period last year. Generally in the first quarter of 2024, the export turnover was estimated at 93.06 billion USD, increased by 17% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector was 25.21 billion USD, went up 26.2%, accounting for 27.1% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 67.85 billion USD, increased by 13.9%, sharing 72.9%.

Regarding the structure of exported groups in the first quarter of 2024, the group of processing industry was estimated at 82.02 billion USD, accounting for 88.1%.

 – Import of goods: Import turnover in 3/2024 was estimated at 31.08 billion USD, increased by 33.4% over the previous month and increased by 9.7% compared to the same period last year. Generally in the first quarter of 2024, the import turnover was estimated at 84.94 billion USD, increased by 13.9% over the same period last year. Of which the domestic economic sector reached 29.7 billion USD, went up 14.4%; the FDI sector gained 55.28 billion USD, up 13.6%.

Regarding the structure of imported groups in the first quarter of 2024, the group of production materials was estimated at 79.9 billion USD, accounted for 94%.

– Regarding the export and import market of goods in the first quarter of 2024, the United States was the Viet Nam’s largest export market with a turnover of 26.2 billion USD. China remained the largest import market of Viet Nam with a turnover of 29.4 billion USD.

– The trade balance of goods in March was estimated to have a trade surplus of 2.93 billion USD. Generally in the first quarter of 2024, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of 8.08 billion USD (in the same period last year, the trade surplus of 4.93 billion USD). Of which, the domestic economic sector has a trade deficit of 4.49 billion USD; the FDI sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 12.57 billion USD.

b) Export and import of services

In the first quarter of 2024, service export turnover was estimated at 5.67 billion USD, up 24.7% over the same period last year. Service import turnover in the first quarter of 2024 was estimated at 8 billion USD (of which is included in the transportation and insurance service fee of imported goods is 2.69 billion USD), up 26.8% over the same period last year. Trade deficit of service in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.33 billion USD.

10. Consumer price index, gold price index and US dollar price index

– Consumer price index (CPI) in March 2024 decreased by 0.23% compared to the previous month, increased by 1.12% compared to December 2023 and increased by 3.97% compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, CPI increased by 3.77% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 2.81%.

– Gold price index in March 2024 increased by 4.59% compared to the previous month; an increase of 9.41% compared to December 2023; increased 22.71% over the same period last year; on average, in the first quarter of 2024, the gold price index increased by 18.23%.

– US dollar price index in March 2024 increased by 0.88% compared to the previous month; an increase of 1.81% compared to December 2023; increased 4.32% over the same period last year; the average increase in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.97%.

11. Some social situations

The labor and employment situation in the first quarter of 2024 has returned to the normal development trend as before the Covid-19 pandemic. The population’s life situation in the first quarter of this year improved. The work of ensuring social security is always carried out promptly and effectively by all levels and sectors.

The country’s labor force aged 15 and over in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated to be 52.4 million people, down 137.4 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and up 175.8 thousand people over the same period last year. The percentage of trained employed with degrees and certificates in the first quarter of 2024 is 27.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Employed persons in the first quarter of 2024 are estimated to be 51.3 million people, a decrease of 127.0 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 174.1 thousand people compared to the same period last year.

The underemployment rate in the working age in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.03% (urban areas are 1.20%, rural areas are 2.58%); The unemployment rate in the working age in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.24% (urban areas are 2.64%; rural areas are 1.99%); The unemployment rate for young people (from 15-24 years old) in the first quarter of 2024 is 7.99%.

The average income of employed in the first quarter of 2024 is 7.6 million VND/month, an increase of 301 thousand VND compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and an increase of 549 thousand VND compared to the same period in 2023.

The population’s life situation in the first quarter of this year improved. According to preliminary results from the 2024 Residential Living Standards Survey, average income per capita in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated to reach 5.2 million VND/month, an increase of about 8% compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 10% over the same period. 2023.

According to reports from the locality, as of March 19, 2024, the amount of support for social protection subjects according to Decree No. 20/2021/ND-CP dated March 15, 2021 is 8.1 thousand billions dong; Poor and near-poor households are more than 2.4 trillion VND; People with meritorious services and relatives of people with meritorious services to the revolution are 9.2 trillion VND; Unexpected and unusual support arising locally is nearly 26.8 billion VND.

According to information from the Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs, to prevent people from starving, from the beginning of the year until now, the total amount of rice the Government, ministries, branches and localities have supported people with is more than 17 million. 7 thousand tons of rice, of which: Supported 10.4 thousand tons of rice for hunger relief on the occasion of the Lunar New Year Giap Thin for 103.7 thousand households with 693.4 thousand people; The Government supports more than 2.3 thousand tons of rice to relieve hunger in 2024 for more than 33 thousand households with 155.7 thousand people./.

[1] The GDP growth rate in the first quarter compared to the same period last year in 2020-2023 was: 3.21%, respectively; 4.85%; 5.12%; 3.41%.

[2] The growth rate of added value of the service sector in the first quarter compared to the same period last year in 2020-2023 was: 3.03%; 4.51%; 4.38%; 6.86%.

[3] The added value of the processing and manufacturing industry in the first quarter of 2023 will decrease by 0.45% over the same period last year.

[4] The corresponding structure of the same period in 2023 is 11.74%; 36,02%; 43,07%; 9,17%.

[5] Source: National Enterprise Registration Information System, Business Registration Management Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment on 24^th March, 2024.

[6] The reporting period was from February 21, 2024 to March 20, 2024.

 [7] The value of export turnover is calculated at F.O.B price and import turnover is calculated at C.I.F price (including transportation and insurance costs of imported goods). When calculating the economy’s trade balance, import and export turnover is calculated according to the F.O.B price.

 [8] Estimated total export and import value in 3/2024 provided by the General Department of Customs on 27/3/2024. The General Statistics Office estimated the import and export value of key commodities in 3/2024 based on preliminary data provided by the General Department of Customs by 24/3/2024.