Socio-economic situation in the third quarter and nine months of 2023

1. Gross domestic product growth rate

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 5.33% over the same period last year, although only higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2020 and 2021 in the period 2011-2023[1], but with positive trend (first quarter increased by 3.28%, second quarter increased by 4.05%, third quarter increased by 5.33%). Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.72%, contributing 8.03% to the increase in total added value of the whole economy; the industrial and construction sector increased by 5.19%, contributing 38.63%; the service sector increased by 6.24%, contributing 53.34%. Regarding GDP expenditure in the third quarter of 2023, final consumption increased by 3.79% over the same period last year, contributing 40.56% to the overall growth rate of the economy; gross capital formation increased by 6.61%, contributing 44.92%; export of goods and services increased by 2.27%; imports of goods and services increased by 1.42%; trade balance (goods & services) contributes 14.52%.

GDP in 9 months of 2023 increased by 4.24% over the same period last year, only higher than the growth rate of 2.19% and 1.57% of 9 months of 2020 and 2021 in the period 2011-2023[2]. In the increase in total added value of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.43%, contributing 9.16%; the industrial and construction sector increased by 2.41%, contributing 22.27%; the service sector increased by 6.32%, contributing 68.57%.

In the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, the productivity of winter-spring and summer-autumn rice was quite good, the output of some perennial crops mainly increased compared to the same period last year, livestock production developed stably, and aquaculture achieved positive results. The added value of the agricultural sector in 9 months of 2023 increased by 3.42% over the same period last year, contributing 0.29 percentage points to the increase in the total added value of the entire economy; the forestry sector increased by 3.13% but accounted for a low proportion so it only contributed 0.02 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 3.56%, contributing 0.09 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, the industry faces many difficulties and challenges in the context of declining world aggregate demand. The added value of the entire industry in the 9 months of 2023 only increased by 1.65% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase of the same period of years in the period 2011-2023[3], contributing 0.56 percentage points to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy. Of which, the manufacturing increased by 1.98%, which is the lowest increase of the same period of years in the period 2011-2023[4], contributing 0.51 percentage points. The construction industry increased by 6.17%, contributing 0.42 percentage points.

The trade and tourism sectors maintain high growth momentum, positively contributing to the growth of the service sector. The added value of the service sector in 9 months of 2023 increased by 6.32% over the same period last year, higher than the increase of 1.87% and the decrease of 0.05% in the same period of 2020 and 2021^[5]. In the service sector, the contributions of a number of industries with a large proportion to the increase in total added value of the whole economy were as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 8.04% over the same period last year, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the transportation and warehousing industry increased by 8.66%, contributing 0.53 percentage points; finance, banking and insurance activities increased by 6.91%, contributing 0.4 percentage points; accommodation and food services increased by 13.17%, contributing 0.33 percentage points.

Regarding the economic structure in 9 months of 2023, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 11.51%; the industrial and construction sector accounts for 37.16%; service sector accounts for 42.72%; product tax minus product subsidies accounts for 8.61% (The corresponding structure for the same period in 2022 was 11.47%; 38.49%; 41.29%; 8.75%).

Regarding GDP expenditure in 9 months of 2023, final consumption increases by 3.03% over the same period in 2022, contributing 34.30% to the overall growth rate of the economy; gross capital formation increased 3.22%, contribution 19.35%; export of goods and services decreased by 5.79%; imports of goods and services decreased by 8.19%; trade balance (goods & services) contributes 46.35%.

2. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery

a) Agriculture

– Winter rice: As of september 15, 2023 the whole country cultivated 1,492.5 thousand ha of winter rice, equaling 99.2% of the same period last year, of which: Northern localities cultivated 1.005.6 thousand ha, equaling 98.3%; the southern localities planted 486.9 thousand ha, equaling 101.1%.

– In this year’s summer-autumn rice crop, the country cultivated 1,911.7 thousand hectares, a decrease of 2.8 thousand hectares compared to last year’s summer-autumn crop. As of September 15, 2023, localities have harvested 1,786.3 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice, accounting for 93.4% of the cultivated area and equal to 94.8% of the same period last year, yield was estimated at 57.6 quintals/hectare, an increase of 0.1 quintals/ha; output reached 11 million tons, an increase of 173 thousand tons.

– By mid-September, the Mekong Delta river delta had planted 604.2 thousand hectares of autumn-winter rice, equal to 105% of the same period last year.

– The planted area of some crops such as maize, sweet potatoes, soybeans, and peanuts decreased compared to the same period last year due to low economic efficiency, so farmers narrowed production.

– Generally in the 9 months of 2023, the output of some perennial industrial plants increased compared to the same period last year, of which: of which: Tea buds reached 904.6 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7%; rubber reached 873.4 thousand tons, an increase of 2.3%; coconut reached 1,483.1 thousand tons, an increase of 6.3%; cashew nuts reached 358.3 thousand tons, an increase of 5.4%.

– Livestock: Buffalo and cow husbandry in the 9 months of 2023 developed stably; raising pigs and poultry supply adequate for the market; the disease was controlled.

b) Forestry

The area of concentrated newly planted forests the third quarter, 2023 was estimated at 72.6 thousand hectares, down 3% over the same period last year; the damaged forest area was 425.9 hectares, up 51%. Generally, in the 9 months of 2023, the area of newly concentrated planted forest was estimated at 197.9 thousand hectares, equal to the same period last year; the damaged forest area was 1,594 hectares, up 79.5%.

c) Fishery

Fishery output in the third quarter, 2023 was estimated at 2,520.2 thousand tons, up 2.6% over the same period last year. In general, in 9 months of 2023, fishery output was estimated at 6,796.7 thousand tons, up 2.1% over the same period last year, including: aquaculture output reached 3,792.5 thousand tons, up 3.6%; the caught fishery output reached 3,004.2 thousand tons, up 0.4%.

3. Industrial production

– The added value of the entire industrial sector in the 9 months of 2023 is estimated to increase by 1.65% over the same period last year (first quarter decreased by 0.75%; second quarter increased by 0.95%; third quarter increased by 4.57%) . Of which, the manufacturing industry increased by 1.98% (first quarter decreased by 0.49%; second quarter increased by 0.6%; third quarter increased by 5.61%), contributing 0.51 percentage points on the increase in total added value of the entire economy.

– The industrial production index in 9 months of 2023 compared to the same period last year increased in 49 localities and decreased in 14 localities across the country.

– The consumption index of the manufacturing industry in 9 months of 2023 increased by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2022 (the same period in 2022 increased by 9.7%).

– The inventory index of the manufacturing industry was estimated as of September 30, 2023  increase by 2.5% compared to the same time last month and by 19.4% compared to the same time last year (the previous year increased by 13.4%). The average inventory rate of the whole manufacturing industry in 9 months of 2023 was 85.3% (average of 9 months in 2022 was 76.4%).

– The number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of September 1, 2023 increased by 0.9% compared to the same time last month and decreased by 1.9% compared to the same time last year.

4. Enterprise activities

a) Enterprise registration status

 – In September 2023, the whole country had 12,684 newly established enterprise, down 9.7% compared to last month and up 10.6% compared to the same period 2022; 5,808 re-operated enterprises in the whole country, which decreased by 7.2% up 13.5%;4,124 enterprises ceased for a certain time, a decrease of 20.4% and an increase of 40.5%; 5,273 enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, an increase of 1.1% and an increase of 25.9%; 1,441 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, a decrease of 4.8% and a decrease of 4.9%.

– Generally, in the 9 months of this year, the whole country had 116.3 thousand newly registered enterprises, up 3.1% compared to the same period last year; 48.9 thousand re-operated enterprises,  a decrease of 3.2%; 75.8 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased for a certain time, an increase of 21.2%; 46.1 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, a climb up 26.9%; 13.2 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 4.3%.

b) Business trends of the enterprises

Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the third quarter of 2023 showed that: 30.1% of enterprises assessed that the business production situation was better than the second quarter of 2023 and for the expected outcome of the fourth quarter of 2023, 39.1% of enterprises presented that the tendency would get better than the third quarter of 2023.

5. Service activities

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in September was estimated at 524.6 trillion VND, up 2.4% over the previous month and up 7.5% over the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2023, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue are estimated to reach 1,550.2 trillion VND, up 1.9% over the previous quarter and up 7.3% over the same period last year. Generally for 9 months of 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices was estimated at 4,567.8 trillion VND, up 9.7% over the same period last year (up 20.9% in the same period in 2022), if excluding the price factor, up 7,3% (the same period in 2022 increased by 16,6%).

Passenger transport in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated at 1,189.4 million passengers, up 5.2% over the same period last year and passenger traffic was 64.9 billion passengers-kilometers, up 19.2%. Generally for 9 months of 2023, passenger carried was estimated at 3.406 million passengers, up 13.1% over the same period last year and passenger traffic was 184 billion passengers.km, increased by 27.9%.

Freight transport in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated at 573.7 million tons of freight carried, up 11.4% over the same period last year and 128.8 billion tons.km of freight traffic, up 9.8%. Generally for 9 months of 2023, freight transport was estimated at 1,686.2  million tons of freight carried, up 14.6% over the same period last year and 359.8 billion tons.km of freight traffic, an increase of 12.5%.

Telecommunications revenue in the third quarter of 2023 is estimated to reach 82 trillion VND, up 3.9% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, a 1.1% increase). In the 9 months of 2023, telecommunications revenue is estimated to reach 254.3 trillion VND, up 2.8% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, which increased by 0.1%).

International visitors to Viet Nam in September 2023 reached more than 1 million people, down 13.4% compared to the previous month and 2.4 times higher than the same period last year; the number of Vietnamese people leaving the country reached 501.4 thousand people, an increase of 43.1% over the same period last year. In the 9 months of 2023, international visitors to our country were estimated 8.9 million people, 4.7 times higher than the same period last year but still only 69% compared to the same period in 2019 – the year before the Covid epidemic occurred. -19; the number of Vietnamese leaving the country reached 3.8 million, 2.5 times higher than the same period last year.

6. Banking, insurance and securities activities

– As of September 20th, 2023, total means of payment increased by 4.75% compared to the end of 2022; capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 5.8%; the economy’s credit growth reached 5.73%.

– Total insurance premium revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated to reach 52.9 trillion VND, down 10.4% compared to the same period in 2022; in 9 months of 2023, total insurance premium revenue was estimated at 165.6 trillion VND, down 6.9%.

– From the beginning of the year until now, the average transaction value on the stock market has reached 16,940 billion VND/session, down 16% compared to the average in 2022; the average transaction value in the bond market reached 5,770 billion VND/session, down 24.9%; the average trading volume on the derivatives market reached 225,613 contracts/session, down 17%.

7. Investment in development

Realized social investment capital in the third quarter of 2023 at current prices is estimated at 902.5 trillion VND, up 7.6% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in the 9 months of 2023, realized investment capital of the whole society at current prices is estimated to reach 2,260.5 trillion VND, an increase of 5.9 % over the same period last year.

Total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of September 20, 2023, including: Newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and value of capital contributions and share purchases by foreign investors reached nearly 20.21 billion USD, an increase of 7.7%. compared to the same period last year. Foreign direct investment capital realized in Vietnam in the 9 months of 2023 is estimated at 15.91 billion USD, up 2.2% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of realized foreign direct investment in 9 months in the past 5 years.

Vietnam’s investment abroad in the 9 months of 2023 had 84 projects granted new investment certificates with a total Vietnamese capital of 244.8 million USD, down 29.5% over the same period last year; There were 18 projects with capital adjusted with the adjusted capital increasing by 172 million USD, 3.4 times higher. Overall, Vietnam’s total investment capital abroad (new and adjusted capital) reached 416.8 million USD, up 4.6% over the same period last year.

8. State budget revenue and expenditure

Total State budget revenue in September 2023 was estimated to reach 89.6 trillion VND. Accumulated state budget revenue in 9 months of 2023 was estimated at 1,223.8 trillion VND, equal to 75.5% of the yearly estimate and down 8.3% over the same period last year.

Total State budget expenditure in September 2023 was estimated to reach 156.1 trillion VND; accumulated for 9 months of 2023 was estimated to reach 1,239.4 trillion VND, equal to 59.7% of the year’s estimate and up 14.1% over the same period last year.

9. Export and import of goods and services

a) Export and import of goods^[6]

 – Export of goods: Export turnover of goods in September 2023 was estimated at 31.41 billion USD, down 4.1% over the previous month and up 4.6% compared to the same period last year. Generally in 9 months of 2023, the export turnover was estimated at 259.67 billion USD, decreased by 8.2% over the same period last year.

+ Regarding the structure of exported groups in 9 months of 2023, the group of processing industry was estimated at 229.22 billion USD, accounting for 88.3%.

 – Import of goods: Import turnover in September 2023 was estimated at 29.12 billion USD, decreased by 0.7% over the previous month and increased by 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Generally in 9 months of 2023, the import turnover was estimated at 237.99 billion USD, decreased by 13.8% over the same period last year.

+ Regarding the structure of imported groups in 9 months of 2023, the group of production materials was estimated at 223.08 billion USD, accounted for 93.7%.

– Regarding the export and import market of goods in 9 months of 2023, the United States was Viet Nam’s largest export market with a turnover of 70.9 billion USD. China remained the largest import market of Viet Nam with a turnover of 79.1 billion USD.

– The trade balance of goods in September was estimated to have a trade surplus of 2.29 billion USD. Generally in 9 months of 2023, the trade balance of goods was estimated to have a trade surplus of 21.68 billion USD (in the same period last year, the trade surplus of 6.9 billion USD).

b) Export and import of services

In the third quarter of 2023, export turnover of services reached 5.1 billion USD, increased by 24.9% over the same period in 2022 and up 11.6% over previous quarter; import turnover of services reached 7.7 billion USD, went up by 4.8% and up 11.9%. Generally in 9 months of 2023, export turnover of services was estimated at 14.2 billion USD, went up by 60.6% over the same period in 2022; import turnover of service in 9 months of this year was estimated at 20.9 billion USD (of which transportation and insurance service fees for imported goods are 7.5 billion USD), up 0.8% over the same period last year. The trade deficit of services in 9 months of 2023 was 6.7 billion USD.

10. Consumer price index, gold price index and US dollar price index

– Consumer price index (CPI) in September 2023 increased by 1.08% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2022, September CPI increased by 3.12% and compared to the same period last year increased by 3.66%. Average CPI in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 2.89% compared to the third quarter of 2022. In the 9 months of this year, CPI increased by 3.16% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 4.49%.

– Gold price index in September 2023 increased by 0.94% compared to the previous month; an increase of 4.91% compared to December 2022; increased 7.83% over the same period last year; the average in the 9 months of 2023 increased by 2.22% over the same period last year.

– US dollar price index in September 2023 increased by 1.53% compared to the previous month; an increase of 0.35% compared to December 2022; increased 2.43% over the same period last year; The average increase in the 9 months of 2023 was 2.29% over the same period last year.

11. Some social situations

The labor and employment situation tends to increase, but the labor market and employment increase slowly due to continuing to face many difficulties and challenges, mainly due to low production orders of businesses; the lives of households have improved. Social security work continues to receive attention from all levels from central to local levels.

The country’s labor force aged 15 and older in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated to be 52.4 million people, an increase of 92.6 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 546 thousand people over the same period last year. In the 9 months of 2023, the labor force aged 15 and over was 52.3 million people, an increase of 760 thousand people over the same period last year.

Employed persons in the third quarter of 2023 were estimated to be 51.3 million people, an increase of 87.4 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 523.6 thousand people over the same period last year. In the 9 months of 2023, the number of employed persons increased by 776 thousand people compared to the same period last year.

The unemployment rate of the working age in the third quarter of 2023 was 2.3%, unchanged compared to the previous quarter and increased by 0.02 percentage points over the same period last year. The unemployment rate of the working age in 9 months of 2023 was 2.28%, down 0.07 percentage points over the same period last year, of which 2.73% in urban areas; rural areas was 2%.

The underemployment rate of the working age in the third quarter of 2023 was 2.06%, unchanged compared to the previous quarter and increased by 0.14 percentage points over the same period last year. Generally for the 9 months of 2023, the underemployment rate of the working age population was 2.02%, down 0.27 percentage points over the same period last year.

The average income of workers in the third quarter of 2023 was 7.1 million VND/month, an increase of 146 thousand VND compared to the second quarter of 2023 and an increase of 359 thousand VND compared to the same period in 2022. Overall, for the 9 months of 2023, income the average income of workers was 7 million VND/month, an increase of 6.8%, equivalent to an increase of 451 thousand VND compared to the same period last year.

Social security work is carried out promptly and practically by all levels from central to local levels. According to local reports, as of September 19, 2023, the value of gifts to sponsors under Decree 20/2021/ND-CP was 3.2 trillion VND; The value of money, gifts and support for poor and near-poor households was nearly 3.1 trillion VND; The value of money and gifts for preferential subjects who are people with meritorious services and relatives of people with meritorious services to the revolution was 6.4 trillion VND (on July 27 alone, it was nearly 1.7 trillion VND); Sudden and unusual support (natural disasters, storms and floods…) arising locally was more than 132.9 billion VND. In addition, there were nearly 27.9 million health insurance cards/books/free medical examination and treatment cards distributed and given to policy beneficiaries across the country.

[1] The growth/decrease rate of GDP in the third quarter compared to the same period last year in the years 2011-2023 were: 6.37%; 5.5%; 5.71%; 6.59%; 7.16%; 6.91%; 7.54%; 7.2%; 7.62%; 3%; -6.03%; 13.71%; 5.33%, respectively.

 [2] The GDP growth rate in the 9 months of 2011-2023 compared to the same period last year was: 6.2%; 5.34%; 5.26%; 6.11%; 6.85%; 6.4%; 6.49%; 7.35%; 7.3%; 2.19%; 1.57%; 8.85%; 4.24%, respectively.

[3] The growth rate of industrial added value in the 9 months of 2011-2023 compared to the same period last year was: 8.79%; 7.92%; 4.62%; 5.51%; 8.93%; 7.07%; 6.92%; 8.9%; 8.64%; 2.3%; 3.65%; 9.27%; 1.65%, respectively.

[4] The growth rate of added value in the manufacturing in the 9 months of 2011-2023 compared to the same period last year was: 12.06%; 8.1%; 5.91%; 6.21%; 8.78%; 10.49%; 10.76%; 11.51%; 9.91%; 3.2%; 5.02%; 10.20%; 1.98%, respectively.

[5] The growth rate of value added in the service sector in the 9 months of 2011-2023 compared to the same period last year was: 7.43%; 6.8%; 6.59%; 7.21%; 6.97%; 7.29%; 6.97%; 7.25%; 7.52%; 1.87%; -0.05%; 10.73%, 6.32%, respectively.

[6] Estimated total export and import value in September 2023 provided by the General Department of Customs on September 27, 2023. The General Statistics Office estimated the import and export value of key commodities in September 2023 based on preliminary data provided by the General Department of Customs by September 24, 2023.