Socio-economic situation report in the second quarter and six months of 2023

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 4.14% over the same period last year, only higher than the growth rate of 0.34%[1] in the second quarter of 2020 in the period 2011-2023. In which, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector increased by 3.25%, contributing 8.53% to the increase in the total added value of the whole economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 2.50%, contributing 23.63%; the service sector increased by 6.11%, contributing 67.84%.

GDP in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 3.72%, just higher than the 1.74% growth rate of the first 6 months of 2020 in the period 2011-2023[2]. In the increase in the total added value of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector increased by 3.07%, contributing 9.28%; the industry and construction sector increased by 1.13%, contributing 11.87%; the service sector increased by 6.33%, contributing 78.85%.

In the area of ​​agriculture, forestry, and fishery, the yield of winter-spring rice was quite good, the output of some perennial crops mainly increased compared to the same period last year, the poultry production developed stably, and the aquaculture reached positive results. The added value of the agricultural sector in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 3.14% over the same period last year, contributing 0.27 percentage points to the increase in the total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 3.43% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.02 percentage points; the fishery industry increased by 2.77%, contributing 0.07 percentage points.

In the industry and construction sector, the industry faces many difficulties in the general context of the world economy. The industry-added value in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 0.44% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase of the same period of years in the period 2011-2023[3], contributing 0.15 percentage points to the growth rate of total value added of the whole economy. The processing and manufacturing industry increased by 0.37%[4], contributing 0.1 percentage points. Electricity production and distribution increased by 1.79%, contributing 0.07 percentage points. The mining industry decreased by 1.43%, reducing 0.05 percentage points in the increase in the total value added to the whole economy. The construction industry increased by 4.74%, only higher than the growth rate of 0.07%, 2.54%, and 4.19% of the same period in 2011, 2012, and 2022 in the period 2011-2023, contributing 0. 31 percentage points.

Policies to stimulate domestic consumption, promotion and promotion of tourism have contributed to maintaining the growth of the service sector. The added value of the service sector in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 6.33% over the same period last year, higher than the increase of 1.18% and 4.53% of the same period in 2020 and 2021. In the service sector, the contributions of some industries with a large proportion to the increase in total value added of the whole economy are as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 8.49% over the same period last year, contributing 0.88 percentage points; transportation and warehousing increased by 7.18%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.13%, contributing 0.4 percentage points; accommodation and food services increased by 15.14%, contributing 0.37 percentage points.

Regarding the structure of the economy in the first 6 months of 2023, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector accounted for 11.32%; industry and construction accounted for 36.62%; the service sector accounted for 43.25%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.81% (corresponding structure of the same period in 2022 was 11.21%; 38.00%; 41.85%; 8.94%).

Regarding GDP in use-method in the first six months of 2023, final consumption increased by 2.68% over the same period in 2022, contributing 30.27% to the overall growth rate of the whole economy; accumulated assets increased by 1.15%, contributed 6.28%; exports of goods and services decreased by 10.0%; import of goods and services decreased by 13.20%, the difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 63.45%.

2. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery

a) Agriculture

The country’s spring rice cultivation area in 2023 reached 2,952.5 thousand hectares, equaling 98.7% of the previous year’s spring crop; yield was estimated at 68.4 quintals/ha, an increase of 1.6 quintals/ha; production was estimated at 20.2 million tons, an increase of 231.9 thousand tons. Of which: Northern localities reached 1,067.7 thousand hectares, equaling 99%, yield reached 64.4 quintals/ha, an increase of 2.2 quintals/ha, production reached 6.9 million tons, up 165.8 thousand tons; the southern provinces reached 1,884.8 thousand ha, equaling 98.5%, yield reached 70.8 quintals/ha, an increase of 1.5 quintals/ha; production reached 13.3 million tons, an increase of 66.1 thousand tons.

– In the first 6 months of 2023, the production of many perennial industrial crops increased compared to the same period in 2022 due to favorable weather and reasonable restructuring of crops.

– Livestock: Buffalo and cattle breeding in the 6 months developed stably. Pigs and poultry production was well developed, disease was under control.

b) Forestry

In the second quarter, the area of concentrated newly planted forests was estimated at 87.3 thousand hectares, up 1.1% over the same period last year; the damaged forest area was 913.4 hectares, 2.5 times higher. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2023, the area of newly concentrated planted forest was estimated at 125.5 thousand hectares, up 1.8% over the same period last year; the damaged forest area was 1,168 hectares, up 92.8%

c) Fishery

Fishery output in the second quarter, 2023 was estimated at 2370.4 thousand tons, up 1.6% over the same period last year. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2023, fishery output was estimated at 4,270.5 thousand tons, up 1.7% over the same period last year, including fishes reached 3,093.2 thousand tons, up 1.6%; shrimp reached 538.1 thousand tons, up 3.5%; other fishery products reached 639.2 thousand tons, up 1.1%.

3. Industrial production

– The added value of the whole industry in the first 6 months of 2023 was estimated to increase by 0.44% over the same period last year (in the first quarter, it decreased by 0.75%; in the second quarter, it increased by 1.56%). Of which, The manufacturing increased by 0.37% (in the first quarter, it decreased by 0.49%; in the second quarter by 1.18%), contributing 0.10 percentage points.

Industrial production index in the first 6 months of 2023 compared with the same period last year increased in 48 localities and decreased in 15 localities across the country.

– In the first 6 months of 2023, the consumption index of the whole manufacturing industry decreased by 2.2% compared to the same period in 2022 (in the same period in 2022, it increased by 9.4%)

– The inventory index of the manufacturing industry was estimated as of June 30, 2023, up 19.9% over the same period last year (the same period last year increased by 14.1%). The average inventory rate of the whole processing and manufacturing industry in the first 6 months of 2023 was 83.1% (the same period last year was 78%).

– The number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of June 1, 2023 increased by 0.8% over the same period last month and decreased by 4.2% over the same period last year.

4. Enterprise activities

a) Enterprise registration status

– In June, the whole country had 13.9 thousand newly established enterprises, up 14.9% over the previous month and 4.8% over the same period last year; 7.1 thousand enterprises returned to operation, up 19.3% and 3.2 times higher; 5,102 enterprises registered to suspend business for a definite time, down 4.9% and 0.5%; there were 5,749 enterprises shutting down and waiting for dissolution procedures, up 21.9% and 11.7%; 1,482 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 21.2% and down 12.2%.

– Generally, in the first 6 months of 2023, the whole country has 75.9 thousand newly registered enterprises, down 0.5% over the same period last year; nearly 37.7 thousand enterprises returned to operation, down 7.4%; 60.2 thousand enterprises temporary business for a definite time; 31 thousand enterprises stopped operating and waited for dissolution procedures, up 28.9%; 8.8 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 2.8%.

b) Business trends of the enterprises

The survey results on business trends of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry in the second quarter of 2023 showed that 27.5% of enterprises rated their business and production situation better than in the first quarter of this year. 2023 and it is expected that in the third quarter of 2023, 34.3% of enterprises rated the trend to be better compared to the second quarter of 2023.

5. Service activities

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in June was estimated at 505.7 trillion VND, up 0.5% over the previous month and up 6.5% over the same period last year. In the second quarter of 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services was estimated at 1,520.2 trillion VND, up 1.6% compared to the previous quarter and 8.7% over the same period last year. Generally for the first 6 months of 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices was estimated at 3,016.8 trillion VND, up 10.9% over the same period last year (up 12.2% in the same period in 2022), if excluding the price factor, up 8.44%, same period in 2022.

Passenger transport in June was estimated at 355.5 million passengers, up 2.9% over the previous month and 19.8 billion passengers-kilometers, up 3.1%. In the first 6 months of 2023, passenger carried was estimated at 2,178.8 million passengers, up 15.9% over the same period last year and passenger traffic was 118.4 billion passengers.km, increased by 32.4%. Freight transport in June was estimated at 186.4 million tons of freight carried, up 0.7% from the previous month and 39.4 billion tons.km of freight traffic, up 3.3%. Generally for the first 6 months of 2023, freight transport was estimated at 1,109 million tons of freight carried, up 15.9% over the same period last year and 232.5 billion tons.km of freight traffic, an increase of 14.8%.

­­­­ Telecommunications revenue in the second quarter of 2023 was estimated at 87.1 trillion VND, up 3.6% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, it increased by 0.7%). In the first 6 months of 2023, telecommunications revenue was estimated at 174 trillion VND, up 3.3% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, it increased by 0.5%).

International visitors to Viet Nam in June reached 975 thousand arrivals, up 6.4% compared to the previous month and 4.1 times higher than the same period last year. In the first 6 months of 2023, international visitors to our country reached 5.6 million arrivals, 9.3 times higher than the same period last year but still equal to 65.7% compared to the same period in 2019 – the year without Covid-19.

Vietnamese citizens exit of the country in 6/2023 reached 447.4 thousand arrivals, 2.1 times higher. Generally in the first 6 months of 2023, Vietnamese citizens exit of the country reached 2,4 million arrivals, 4 times higher than the same period last year.

6. Banking, insurance, stock market operations

– As of June 20, 2023, the total means of payment increased by 2.53% compared to the end of 2022; capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 3.26%; credit growth reached 3.58%[5].

– Total insurance premium revenue in the second quarter of 2023 was estimated at 61.3 trillion VND, down 3.12% over the same period in 2022; in the first 6 months of 2023, total insurance premium revenue was estimated at 117 trillion VND, down 1.62%.

– From the beginning of the year until now, the average trading value on the stock market has reached 13,118 billion VND/session, down 35.7% compared to the average in 2022; the average trading value on the bond market reached 5,596 billion VND/session, down 27.2%; The average trading volume on the derivatives market reached 243,037 contracts/session, down 11%.

7. Development investment

Realized investment capital for the whole society in the second quarter of 2023 at current prices was estimated at 774.9 trillion VND, up 5.5 % over the same period last year. It was estimated that in the first 6 months of 2023 , the realized investment capital of the whole society at current prices was estimated at 1,357.7 trillion VND, up 4.7% over the same period last year. Realized investment capital of the State sector increased by 12.6%, showing the determination and efforts of the Government, ministries, sectors and localities in drastically promoting the implementation of public investment capital in order to create motivation to promote public investment, economic growth in both the short and long term.

Total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of June 20, 2023, including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and value of capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached 13.4 billion USD, down 4.3% compared to the previous year. Realized foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2023 was estimated at 10.02 billion USD, up 0.5 % over the same period last year.

Vietnam’s investment abroad in the first 6 months of 2023 has 60 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total capital of 147 million USD, down 51.2 % over the same period last year; There were 16 times of projects with capital adjustment increasing by 173.7 million USD, 3.9 times higher.The total investment capital of Vietnam abroad (newly and adjusted capital) reached 320,6 million USD, down 7.3 % compared to the same period last year.

8. State budget revenue and expenditure

Total state budget revenue in June 2023 was estimated at 93.5 trillion VND. Accumulated total state budget revenue in the first 6 months of 2023 reached 875.8 trillion VND, equaling 54% of the year estimate and down 7.8% over the same period last year.

Total state budget expenditure in June 2023 was estimated at 155.9 trillion VND, accumulated in the first 6 months of 2023 reaching 804.6 trillion VND, equaling 38.8% of the yearly estimate and increasing 12.2% compared to the same period last year.

9. Export and import of goods and services

a) Export and import of goods^[6]

 – Export of goods: Export turnover of goods in June 2023 was estimated at 29.3 billion USD, up 4.5% over the previous month and down 11.4% compared to the same period last year. Generally in 6 months of 2023, the export turnover was estimated at 164.45 billion USD, decreased by 12.1% over the same period last year.

 – Import of goods: Import turnover in June 2023 was estimated at 26.71 billion USD, increased by 2.6% over the previous month and decreased by 16.9% compared to the same period last year. Generally in 6 months of 2023, the import turnover was estimated at 152.2 billion USD, decreased by 18.2% over the same period last year.

– Regarding the export and import market of goods in 6 months of 2023, the United States was Viet Nam’s largest export market with a turnover of 44.2 billion USD. China remained the largest import market of Viet Nam with a turnover of 50.1 billion USD.

– The trade balance of goods in June was estimated to have a trade surplus of 2.59 billion USD. Generally in 6 months of 2023, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of 12.25 billion USD (in the same period last year, the trade surplus of 1.2 billion USD).

b) Export and import of services

In the second quarter of 2023, export turnover of services reached 4.4 billion USD, increased by 58.8% over the same period in 2022; import turnover of services reached 6.7 billion USD, went down by 3.1% over the same period in 2022. Generally in 6 months of 2023, export turnover of services was estimated at 8.8 billion USD, went up by 99.5% over the same period in 2022; import turnover of service in 6 months of this year was estimated at 12.9 billion USD (of which transportation and insurance service fees for imported goods are 3.8 billion USD), down 0.8% over the same period last year. The trade deficit of services in 6 months of 2023 was 4.1 billion USD.

10. Consumer Price Index, Gold Price Index and US Dollar Price Index

– The consumer price index (CPI) in June 2023 increased by 0.27% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2022, June CPI increased by 0.67% and compared with the same period last year by 2%. Average CPI in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 2.41% over the same period last year; on average in the first 6 months of 2023, CPI increased by 3.29%; core inflation increased by 4.74%.

– Gold price index in June 2023 decreased by 0.64% compared to the previous month; increased by 3.3% compared to December 2022; increased by 0.95% over the same period last year; average growth in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 0.67%.

– US dollar price index in June 2023 increased by 0.14% compared to the previous month; decreased by 2.23% compared to December 2022; up 1.14% over the same period last year; average growth in the first 6 months of 2023 increased by 2.61%.

11. Some social situations

The labor and employment situation in the second quarter of 2023 tends to increase, but the labor and employment market continues to face many difficulties and challenges mainly due to the lack of production orders by enterprises; the living standards of households in the first 6 months of 2023 will be improved. Social security work continues to be concerned by all levels from central to local levels.

Employed laborers in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 691.4 thousand people over the same period last year; unemployment rate was 2.3%. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2023, employed workers increased by 902 thousand people compared to the same period last year; unemployment rate was 2.27%, down 0.12 percentage points.

As of June 19, 2023, according to Decree 20/2021/ND-CP dated March 15, 2021, nearly 1.79 trillion VND were organized to visit, encourage and give gifts to social protection beneficiaries. copper; poor households, near-poor households was nearly 2.8 trillion VND; people with meritorious services, relatives of people with meritorious services to the revolution was more than 3.8 trillion VND; unexpected and unusual support arising in the locality was 65.4 billion VND. In addition, social insurance has issued more than 26.5 million health insurance cards/books/cards for free medical examination and treatment to beneficiaries./.

[1] [1] Tốc độ tăng GDP quý II so với cùng kỳ năm trước các năm 2011-2023 lần lượt là: 6,25%; 5,56%; 5,39%; 6,19%; 7,11%; 6,74%; 6,66%; 7,1%; 7,16%; 0,34%; 6,58%; 7,83%; 4,14%.

[2] Tốc độ tăng GDP 6 tháng đầu năm so với cùng kỳ năm trước các năm 2011-2023 lần lượt là: 6,1%; 5,25%; 5,03%; 5,86%; 6,68%; 6,13%; 5,93%; 7,43%; 7,12%; 1,74%; 5,76%; 6,46%; 3,72%.

[3] Tốc độ tăng giá trị tăng thêm ngành công nghiệp 6 tháng đầu năm so với cùng kỳ năm trước các năm trong giai đoạn 2011-2023 lần lượt là: 8,54%; 7,79%; 4,5%; 4,95%; 8,74%; 6,63%; 5,30%; 8,59%; 8,22%; 2,26%; 8,15%; 8,36%; 0,44%.

[4] The growth rate of added value of the processing and manufacturing industry in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year in the 2011-2023 period was: 11.96%, respectively; 8.3%; 4.95%; 5.73%; 8.63%; 9.77%; 8.62%; 10.73%; 9.64%; 3.04%; 10.84%; 9.49%; 0.37%.

[5] Cập nhật theo thông tin Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam gửi ngày 30/6/2023.

[6] Estimated total export and import value in June 2023 provided by the General Department of Customs on June 27, 2023. The General Statistics Office estimated the import and export value of key commodities in June 2023 based on preliminary data provided by the General Department of Customs by June 25, 2023.