In the first nine months of 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the Vietnamese economy. In particular, the epidemic that has lasted from July to now in the Southeast provinces, the Mekong Delta and Hanoi must implement social distancing according to Directive 16 for a long time, which has affected the growth results. According to that, GDP in the third quarter of 2021 had the deepest decline since the quarterly GDP was calculated and announced in Vietnam.
GDP in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 6.17% compared to the same period last year, in which, except for the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, which achieved a positive growth of 1.04% but still very low in the past 10 years (only higher than growth rate of 0.97% in 9 months of 2016); Industry and construction, and service sectors both decreased by 5.02% and 9.28%, respectively. Although GDP in the third quarter of 2021 decreased sharply, in 9 months, GDP growth still reached 1.42% compared to the same period last year; in which, besides the service sector, it decreased by 0.69%, the agriculture, forestry and fishery, and the service sector still achieved positive growth of 2.74% and 3.57%, respectively, but both were lower than that of the service sector as expected.
– The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector has low growth (+1.04%) in the third quarter of 2021 due to the prolonged social distancing, which has greatly affected the production, harvesting and consumption of agricultural products. Especially aquaculture in the Mekong Delta when more than 90% of the output of brackish-water pangasius and shrimp is concentrated in this region. Aquaculture production nationwide in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 8.8%, of which pangasius decreased by nearly 20% and shrimp decreased by 5.2%.
– Industry and construction declined in most industries in the third quarter, of which the largest decline was the construction and mining industry with a decrease of 11.41% and 8.25%, respectively. As for the processing and manufacturing industry, which has always played the role of a growth engine of the economy, in the third quarter it decreased by 3.24%;
– The service sector in the third quarter of 2021 saw a record decrease due to the prolonged social distancing period (down 9.28%). In which, the accommodation and food service industry decreased by 54.8% (20 provinces and centrally-run cities implemented social distancing under Directive 16, accounting for 63% of the service industry nationwide); transportation and warehousing decreased by 21.1%; wholesale and retail down nearly 20%. However, in the third quarter of 2021, a number of industries achieved positive growth, especially the health sector and social assistance activities with a very high increase of 38.7% due to the focus on fighting the epidemic; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.1% due to good credit growth; information and communication activities increased by 5.3% with the output mainly serving epidemic prevention and management activities of state agencies, students’ learning, etc.
Economic activity in the third quarter of 2021 dropped sharply mainly due to strict containment measures applied on a large scale, for a long time according to Directive 16 to control the epidemic, especially in the Southeast provinces. Ministry, Mekong Delta and Hanoi; The total GRDP of these 20 provinces and cities accounts for nearly 57% of GDP (Ho Chi Minh City accounts for 17%; Hanoi accounts for 12.6%; Binh Duong 4.8%; Dong Nai accounts for 4.5%; Ba Ria- Vung Tau accounted for 3.8%. In which, the industry and construction sector accounts for nearly 53% of the industry and construction sector of the country; service sector accounts for more than 63%. Due to the large proportion, each change in GRDP growth of these key provinces and cities has a significant impact on the GDP of the whole economy. When the pandemic broke out, prolonged social distancing led to a disruption in circulation, and stalled production and business. Many businesses have been forced to choose the production option “3 on the spot” or “1 route, 2 destinations” to prevent the spread of the disease, otherwise, they will have to suspend operations, affecting other industries, previously signed orders. However, in order to operate like this, businesses also have to bear huge operating costs, lack of labor force due to layoffs, and the supply of raw materials is interrupted, so many exporting enterprises have not been able to complete the work,, orders on time, have to extend or cancel the contract. Many businesses went bankrupt or dissolved due to exhaustion and lack of strength to endure the epidemic for a long time. Some enterprises had to suspend their business or conduct business in moderation, delaying production due to inefficiencies or losses in very difficult conditions.
In the stage of circulation and transportation of goods between provinces and cities, the maximum limit is minimized, even all forms of transport must stop operating in the provinces with social distancing. Agricultural, forestry and fishery activities also face many difficulties due to the inability to circulate agricultural products. In addition, many food and food processing enterprises stop purchasing agricultural products, export packing enterprises do not operate or operate in moderation, making many agricultural products (rice, fruits of all kinds) unable to be exported. . The product cannot be sold due to traffic congestion, transportation and storage costs have increased, so the purchase price of agricultural products has decreased sharply, but the selling price to consumers is high due to high transportation costs. Depending on the epidemic situation, localities have implemented strict social distancing according to the Government.