I. INTERNATIONAL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT
The world economic situation has improved in 2021, countries implement strongly the Covid-19 vaccination strategy, which has helped reduce the number of infections and deaths fast. However, the growth of the economies is different due to the different speeds of vaccine deployment and support policies in different countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and other international organizations have made forecasts about the global economic outlook including upward and downward revisions between economies. Global trade continued to recover but tended to slow down, prices of many items increased sharply compared to 2020, inflation increased, but in general, remained under control worldwide. Besides, the pandemic has caused global chain disruptions, making the price of production materials increase, which is a significant challenge for the production and business activities of countries.
Domestically, following the results achieved in 2020, in the first months of 2021, our country’s macro-economy continues to be stable and starts to prosper. However, the wave of the Covid-19 epidemic that broke out at the end of April with a new strain that spread rapidly, was dangerous and complicated in many localities, especially in economic center-point provinces and cities like Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An, Can Tho… seriously affected people’s life, health, production and business activities.
Faced with that situation, with the highest determination of the whole political system, the people of the country, the business community, and the frontline force against the epidemic has promoted the spirit of solidarity, consensus, joint effort, mobilization of all resources to repel the epidemic, protect the health, care for and stabilize people’s lives, and strive to maintain production and business activities. Achievements of industries and fields in the third quarter and nine months of 2021 are as follows:
I. ECONOMIC GROWTH
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the nine months of 2021 increased by only 1.42% over the same period last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic seriously affecting all sectors of the economy, many key economic localities had to implement social distancing for a long time to prevent disease. This is a great success for our country in disease prevention and business maintenance.
GDP in the third quarter of 2021 was estimated to decrease by 6.17% over the same period last year, the deepest decrease since Vietnam calculated and announced quarterly GDP up to now. In which, agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by 1.04%; the industry and construction sector decreased by 5.02%; service sector decreased by 9.28%. Regarding GDP use in the third quarter of 2021, final consumption decreased by 2.83% over the same period last year; accumulated assets increased by 1.61%; exports of goods and services increased by 2.51%; imports of goods and services increased by 10.75%.
GDP in the nine months of 2021 increased by only 1.42% over the same period last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic seriously affecting all sectors of the economy, many key economic localities had to implement social distancing for a long time to prevent disease. In the general increase of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.74%, contributing 23.52%; the industry and construction sector increased by 3.57%, contributing 98.53%; the service sector decreased by 0.69%, decreasing by 22.05%.
The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector play the role of a pedestal of the economy during the pandemic, rice productivity has increased, livestock production has grown steadily, and the export turnover of some agricultural products in nine months of 2021 is quite good compared to the same period last year. The agricultural sector increased by 3.32%, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 3.3%, contributing 0.02 percentage points; the fisheries sector increased by 0.66%, contributing 0.02 percentage points.
In the industry and construction sector, the manufacturing industry is the growth engine of the whole economy with a growth rate of 6.05%, contributing 1.53 percentage points to the growth rate of value added of the whole economy. The electricity production and distribution increased by 5.24%, contributing 0.2 percentage points. The mining industry fell 7.17%, down by 0.27 percentage points due to a 6% drop in extracted crude oil and a 17.6% drop in natural gas. The construction industry fell 0.58%, reducing 0.04 percentage points.
The Covid-19 pandemic is complicated, seriously affecting commercial activities and services. Negative growth in 9 months of 2021 of some service industries accounting for a large proportion has reduced the overall growth of the service sector and the entire economy. The wholesale and retail sector decreased by 3.1% over the same period last year, reducing 0.3 percentage points in the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy; the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 7.79%, reducing 0.47 percentage points; accommodation and foodservice industry decreased by 23.18%, down 0.57 percentage points. The health sector and social assistance activities achieved the highest growth rate with an increase of 21.15%, contributing 0.26 percentage points; financial, banking, and insurance activities increased by 8.37%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; the information and communication sector increased by 5.24%, contributing 0.32 percentage points.
Regarding the structure of the economy in nine months of 2021, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 12.79%; industry and construction accounted for 38.03%; service sector accounted for 40.19%; tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.99%.
Regarding GDP use in 9 months of 2021, final consumption increased by 1.6% over the same period in 2020; accumulated assets increased by 4.27%; exports of goods and services increased by 14.21%; imports of goods and services increased by 18.46%.
2. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery production in 9 months took place in relatively favorable weather conditions for crops and livestock to grow and develop. However, due to the complicated development of the Covid-19 pandemic, many localities have implemented social distancing, affecting the supply chain of production – processing – consumption of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products. In the face of difficulties and challenges, the Agriculture sector has had many timely and effective response solutions, demonstrating the role of the pedestal of the economy, ensuring the supply of food, essential goods, and an important department to implement wellbeing during a pandemic.
a) Agriculture
Due to favorable weather and positive crop restructuring, and planting new paddy varieties with high economic value, gradually replacing traditional paddy varieties, the country’s winter-spring rice yield this year reached 68.6 quintals/hectare, increasing 2.2 quintals/hectare compared to the winter-spring crop of 2020; production reached 20.63 million tons, an increase of 755.1 thousand tons.
As of mid-September, the total winter paddy cultivated area in the country reached 1,577.4 thousand hectares, an equal to 99.8% over the same period last year. This year, the country cultivated 1,954 thousand hectares of autumn paddy, an increase of 8.8 thousand hectares compared to the season last year, increasing mainly in the North Central and the Central Coast areas. Particularly, the Mekong River Delta reached 1,509 thousand hectares, down 15.1 thousand hectares, due to the restructuring of crops. As of September 15, 2021, the localities harvested 1,643.8 thousand hectares of autumn paddy, holding 84.1% of the cultivated area and an equal to 101.5% over the same period last year; the country’s autumn paddy yield this year was estimated at 56.5 quintals/hectare, an increase of 1.2 quintals/hectare over the same period in 2020. Due to the increase in cultivated area and increase yield, the total production of the autumn paddy was estimated at 11.03 million tons, rising by 282.7 thousand tons.
As of mid-September, the whole country planted 876.3 thousand hectares of maize, equaling 98.4% of the same period last year; 90 thousand hectares of sweet potatoes, equaling 89.2%; 171.3 thousand hectares of peanuts, equaling 98.2%; 37.2 thousand hectares of soybeans, equaling 90.9%; 997.8 thousand hectares of vegetables and beans, equal to 100.5%.
Production of some fruit trees and perennial industrial plants recorded to increase, in comparison with the same period last year due to favorable weather this year, crops are not affected by drought or lack of water for irrigation. Of which cashew production was estimated at 365.2 thousand tons, rising by 5.1% compared with the same period last year; rubber reached 822.8 thousand tons, up 2.6%; pepper reached 275.6 thousand tons, up 2.3%; tea shoot was 865.2 thousand tons, rising by 1.8%; : mango reached 801.1 thousand tons, rising by 6.7%; dragon fruit reached 1,030.5 thousand tons, rising by 1.7%; oranges reached 689.7 thousand tons, increasing by 3.8%; pomelos reached 511.3 thousand tons, rising by 6.1%; bananas reached 1,779.2 thousand tons, rising by 2.6%; longan reached 544.4 thousand tons, rising by 7.8%.
Cattle raising in the month generally was stable, the Lumpy Skin Disease has gradually been controlled, but the risk of recurrence is still high. Pig and poultry farming was affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, many wholesale markets and traditional markets temporarily closed, production costs up, circulation disrupted, market demand decreased due to closed restaurants, stagnated tourism, so small livestock establishments had difficulty in consumption, the amount of livestock in the barn was high, increasing the risk of losses.
As of September 20, 2021, the country was no longer recorded cases of blue ear disease. Some diseases remained in several localities for less than 21 days: in pigs and foot and mouth disease remained in Thai Nguyen; avian influenza remained in Lang Son; African swine fever was reported in 35 provinces[1] and LSD reported in 31 provinces[2].
b) Forestry
In the nine months of 2021, the estimated concentrated newly planted forest area reached 176.2 thousand hectares, up 2.8% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 65.8 thousand hectares, up 2.3%); the number of planted scattered forest trees reached 65.1 million trees, up 2.3% (in the third quarter reached 18.5 million trees, up 2.4%); timber production harvested 12,589.2 thousand m3, up 4.3% (in the third quarter reached 4,643.6 thousand m3, up 2%); firewood production was 14.3 million ste, down 0.9% (in the third quarter reached 4.4 million ste, down 2.7%).
Damaged forest area[3] in the nine months of 202 was 1,748.2 hectares, up 31.2% over the same period last year, of which the burnt forest area was 1,020.2 hectares, up 54.6%; the deforested forest area was 728 ha, an increase of 8.3%.
c) Fishery
In the nine months of 2021, the Fishery output was estimated at 6,377.3 thousand tons, down 0.2% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 2,281.4 thousand tons, down 5,2%), including fish reached 4,612.5 thousand tons, down 1.2%; shrimp was 810 thousand tons, up 3.4%; other aquatic products reached 954.8 thousand tons, up 1.5%.
Aquaculture production the nine months of 2021 was estimated at 3,320.1 thousand tons, down 1.0% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 1,215.3 thousand tons, down 8.8%), of which fish with 2,224.1 thousand tons, down 3.1%; shrimp with 699.8 thousand tons, up 4.3%. The output of black tiger shrimp was estimated at 196.6 thousand tons, up 1.9% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached reached 81.5 thousand tons, down 0.6%); Vannamei shrimp production reached 462.2 thousand tons, up 5.5% (in the third quarter reached 204 thousand tons, down 6.3%).
Generally, for the nine months of 2021, catch fishery production was estimated at 3,057.2 thousand tons, up 0.7% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 1,066.1 thousand tons, down 0.6%), of which catch fish reaching 2,388.4 thousand tons, up 0.7%; catch shrimp gained 110.2 thousand tons, down 2.2%.
3. Industrial production in the third quarter of 2021 faced many difficulties due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, especially in localities with large industrial zones that had to implement prolonged social distancing. Industry added value in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 3.5% over the same period last year. Overall, the added value of the industry, in nine months of 2021 increased by 4.45% over the same period in 2020.
The added value of the whole industry in the nine months of 2021 was estimated to increase by 4.45% over the same period last year (increased by 6.29% in the first quarter; rose by 11.18% in the second quarter; decreased by 3.5% in the third quarter). In which, the manufacturing increased by 6.05% (increased by 8.9% in the first quarter; increased by 13.35% in the second quarter; decreased by 3.24% in the third quarter); The mining fell by 7.17% due to a 6% drop in extracted crude oil production and a 17.6% drop in natural gas.
The consumption index of the whole manufacturing industry 9 months in 2021 increased by 2.8% over the same period last year. The inventory index of the manufacturing industry was estimated as of September 30, 2021, increased by 28.2 over the same period last year (in the same period of 2020 it increased by 24.3%). The average inventory rate of the whole processing and manufacturing industry in the first nine months of 2021 is 81.1% (75.6% in the same period last year).
4. The prolonged Covid-19 epidemic has made many businesses face the risk of bankruptcy. Generally, in 9 months of 2021, the total number of newly registered enterprises reached 85.5 thousand enterprises, decreased by 13.6% compared to the same period 2020; the average registered capital of a newly established enterprise reached 14 billion VND, decreased by 3.1%; the businesses withdraw from the market had 90.3 thousand enterprises, increased by 15.3%[4]. Results on the business tendency survey of the manufacturing enterprises in the third quarter of 2021 still recorded a positive assessment when 73.7% of enterprises identified their production and business activities in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the third quarter of 2021 could be better and stable.
a) Enterprise registration status [5]
In September 2021, the whole country had 3,899 newly established enterprises with registered capital were 62.4 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of 49.9 thousand employees, a decrease of 32,3% in the number of enterprises, an 8.1% decrease in the registered capital and an increase of 15% in the number of employees compared to last month; compared to the same period 2020, 62.2% down in the number of enterprises, a decrease of 69.3% in the registered capital and down 39.9% in the number of employees.
Generally, in the 9 months of this year, the whole country had 85.5 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 1,195.8 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of 648.8 thousand employees, down 13.6% in the number of enterprises, a decrease of 16.3% in number the registered capital and a decrease of 16.6% in the number of employees compared to the same period last year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 9 months achieved 14 billion VND, down 3.1% compared to the same period last year. If including 1,677.2 trillion VND of the additionally registered capital of nearly 32 thousand enterprises that recorded an upward adjustment of capital, the total additional registered capital in the economy in 9 months of this year was 2,873 trillion VND, down 20.2% compared to the same period last year. Besides, there were 32.3 thousand re-operated enterprises, a decrease of 6.6% over the same period last year, bringing the total number of newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises in 9 months this year to 117.8 thousand enterprises, a decrease of 11.8%. The average every month had 13.1 thousand newly established and re-operated enterprises.
In 9 months this year, there were 45.1 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased for a certain time, an increase of 16.7% compared to the same period last year; 32.4 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, a climb up 17.4%; 12.8 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 5.9%. On average, 10 thousand enterprises withdrawing from the market each month.
b) Business trends of the enterprises
Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the third quarter of 2021 showed that: 13.2% of enterprises assessed that the business production situation was better than the second quarter of 2021; 25.4% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable and 61.4% of enterprises faced difficulties[6]. For the expected outcome of the fourth quarter of 2021, 43.4% of enterprises presented that the tendency would get better than the third quarter of 2021; 26.3% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficult and 30.3% of enterprises said that business production situation would be stable.
5. Transport and trade activities in September increased compared to the previous month when some localities initially controlled the Covid-19 epidemic. However, the number of international visitors to our country was low because Viet Nam has continued to implement measures to prevent and control the Covid-19 epidemic, international tourism has not yet opened. Generally, in the nine months of 2021, international visitors to our country reached 114.5 thousand arrivals, down 97% over the same period last year.
Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services in September 2021 were estimated at 308.8 trillion VND; the third quarter reached 915.7 trillion VND. Generally, for nine months, gross retail sales of consumer goods and services reached 3,367.7 trillion VND, down 7.1% over the same period last year, if, excluding the price factor, the decrease was 8.7% (in the same period in 2020 decreased by 5.1%).
Transport activities in September had more positive signals with an increase of 12.5% in passenger carried, and a 5.6% increase in freight carried compared to the previous month. Generally, in 9 months of 2021, passenger carried reached 2,018.8 million passengers, a decrease of 23.8% over the same period last year, the passenger traffic gained 82.7 billion passengers-km, went down 30.9%. Freight carried in 9 months reached 1,195 million tons, down 5.6% against the similar period last year and freight traffic gained 242.8 billion tons-km, down 0.3%. By types of transport, the airway continues to be the hardest hit with a 42% decrease in passenger carried and a 9.7% decrease in freight carried over the same period last year.
Telecommunications revenue in 9 months of 2021 was estimated to reach 234 trillion VND, increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, the increase was 2.1%). The total number of telephone subscribers by the end of September 2021 was estimated at 126,3 million subscribers, an increase of 0.6% compared to the same period last year, of which mobile phone subscribers reached 123 million subscribers, rising by 0.6%; the number of fixed broadband internet subscribers recorded 18.4 million subscribers, up 13%.
International visitors to Viet Nam in September were estimated at 9.5 thousand arrivals, up 2.2% compared to the previous month and decreased by 31% compared to the same period last year. Generally, in 9 months of 2021, international visitors to Viet Nam was estimated at 114.5 thousand arrivals, down 97% compared to the same period last year, of which visitors coming by airway gained 75.6 thousand persons, accounting for 66% of the number of international visitors to Viet Nam, dropped by 97.5%; by roadway achieved 38.5 thousand arrivals, accounted for 33.6% and went down by 93.4%; by seaway achieved 398 arrivals, accounted for 0.4% and decreased nearly by 99.7%. Visitors from Asia reached 98,291 arrivals, accounting for 85.8% of the total number of international visitors to our country, down 96.5% over the same period last year; visitors from Europe reached 10,383 arrivals, down 98.4%; visitors from the Americas reached 3,984 arrivals, down 98.3%; visitors from Oceania reached 909 arrivals, down 99.1%; visitors from Africa reached 954 arrivals, down 92.2%.
6. In the context of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, credit growth reached 7.17%, positively supporting economic growth in nine months of 2021. The insurance business grew quite well, ensuring the interests of beneficiaries, insurance premium revenue of the whole market in 9 months of 2021 increased by 13% compared to the same period last year; total capital mobilization on the stock market for the economy increased by 12%.
As of September 20, 2021, the total means of payment increased by 4.95% compared to the end of 2020 (at the same time in 2020 increased by 7.58%); capital mobilization by credit institutions increased by 4.28% (in the same period in 2020 it increased by 7.48%); credit growth of the economy reached 7.17% (in the same period in 2020 it increased by 4.99%).
Insurance premium revenue for the whole market in nine months of 2021 was estimated to increase 13% over the same period last year (in the third quarter of 2021, up 7%), of which life insurance premium revenue increases by 17%; Non-life insurance sector increased by 5%.
In the context of a prolonged and complicated pandemic, the stock market developed stably with the total capital mobilization for the economy in 9 months of 2021 estimated at 292.1 trillion VND, up 12% compared to the same previous year. On the stock market, as of September 24, 2021, the VNIndex reached 1,351.17 points, an increase of 1.5% compared to the end of last month and an increase of 22.4% compared to the end of 2020. Market capitalization the market reached 6,913 trillion VND, up 30.6% compared to the end of 2020; the average trading value on the market in nine months of 2021 reached 24,042 billion VND/session, up 224% compared to the average of 2020. On the bond market, by the end of August 2021, there were 435 listed bond codes with a listed value of more than 1,428 trillion VND, an increase of 2.9% compared to the end of 2020. On the derivatives market, in the 9 months of 2021, the average trading volume reached 207,171 contracts/session, up 32% compared to the previous year’s average.
7. The realized investment at the current price in 9 months of 2021 increased only by 0.4% compared to the same period in 2020 due to social distancing in many provinces, that disrupt production and supply chains of business and investment activities. The total number of newly registered foreign investment projects as of September 20, 2021, decreased by 37.8% compared to the same period in 2020, but the registered capital increased by 20.6%. The average newly registered capital of a project in the nine months of 2021 reached 10.3 million USD/project (the same period last year was 5.3 million USD/project).
The realized investment at current prices in the 9 months of 2021 was estimated at 1,868.5 trillion VND, increasing by 0.4% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 697.2 trillion VND, down 9.5%), including investment capital of the State sector reached 459.9 trillion VND, accounting for 24.6% of total capital and down 4.7% compared to the same period last year; the non-state sector reached 1,100.5 trillion VND, equaling 58.9% and increasing by 3.9%; the foreign direct investment sector reached 308.1 trillion VND, equaling 16.5% and down 3.4%.
The registered capital of foreign investment[7] in Vietnam as of 20/9/2021 including newly registered capital, adjust registered capital, and the total value of capital contribution and share purchases of foreign investors reached 22.15 billion USD, increased by 4.4% compared to the same period in 2020. In the total contribution and share purchases capital of foreign investors, including 1,139 turns of capital contribution, share purchase causing the increase of charter capital of the enterprise with the value of contributed capital of 2.05 billion USD, and 1,691 turns of foreign investors repurchased domestic shares without increasing the charter capital with a value of 1.17 billion USD.
8. The complicated ongoing Covid-19 pandemic in many localities, especially those that must implement social distancing, have affected production and business activities and the results of State budget revenue in nine months of 2021. State budget expenditures focus on giving priority to the prevention and control of the Covid-19 epidemic, ensuring national defense and security, and well implementing social security policies.
The accumulated total state budget revenue from the beginning of the year to September 15, 2021, reached 1,034.2 trillion VND, equaling 77% of the year estimate, of which: Domestic revenue reached 836.2 trillion VND, equaling 73.8% of the year estimate; revenue from crude reached 27.4 trillion VND, equaling 118% of the year estimate; balanced budget revenue from import and export activities reached 170 trillion VND, equaling 95.3% of the yearly estimate.
Total state budget expenditure from the beginning of the year to September 15, 2021, reached VND 975.6 trillion VND, equaling 57.8% of the year estimate, of which: Recurring expenses reached VND 689.3 trillion VND, equaling 66.5%; development investment expenditure 202.2 trillion VND, equaling 42.4%; debt payment interest 77.7 trillion VND, equaling 70.6%.
9. Due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, import and export activities in September decreased by 2% compared to August. Total import and export turnover of goods in September 2021 was estimated at 53.5 billion USD, went up 4.2% over the same period last year. Generally, for nine months of this year, the total import and export turnover of goods still maintained a high growth rate, reaching 483.17 billion USD, went up 24.4% over the same period last year, of which exports increased by 18.8%; imports increased by 30.5%[8].
a) Export and import of goods [9]
Export turnover in September 2021 was estimated at 27 billion USD, decreased by 0.8% over the previous month. In the third quarter of 2021, export turnover reached 83.89 billion USD, grew by 5.2% over the same period in 2020, and rose by 7.2% compared to the second quarter of this year (increased by 7% compared to the first quarter). Generally, in nine months of 2021, the export turnover was estimated at 240.52 billion USD, rose by 18.8% over the same period in 2020, of which, the domestic economic sector was 62.72 billion USD, went up 8.5%, accounting for 26.1% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 177.8 billion USD, increased by 22.8%, sharing 73.9%; there were 31 products with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, contributing 92.5% to the total export turnover (6 products with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 63.2%).
Import turnover in September 2021 was estimated at 26.5 billion USD, decreased by 3.1% over the previous month. In the third quarter of 2021, the import turnover reached 84.55 billion USD, rose by 22.6% over the same period in 2020, and grew by 2.5% compared to the second quarter of this year (up 11.8% compared to the first quarter). Generally, in nine months of 2021, the import turnover was estimated at 242.65 billion USD, increased by 30.5% over the same period in 2020, of which the domestic economic sector reached 83.72 billion USD, went up by 25%; the FDI sector gained 158.93 billion USD, edged up by 33.6%; there were 36 imported products with a turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 90.4% of the total import turnover.
The trade balance of goods in August 2021 witnessed a trade deficit of 110 million USD[10]; trade deficit for 8 months was 2.63 billion USD; trade surplus for September 2021 was 0.5 billion USD. trade deficit in nine months of 2021 was estimated at 2.13 billion USD[11] (the same period last year saw a trade surplus of 16.66 billion USD), of which the domestic economic sector saw a trade deficit of 21 billion USD; the FDI sector (including crude oil) saw a trade surplus of 18.87 billion USD.
b) Export and import of services
In nine months of 2021, export turnover of services was estimated at 2.66 billion USD, went down by 59.6% over the same period in 2020, of which travel service gained 107 million USD (accounting for 4% of the total turnover), decreased by 96.6%; transportation service reached 266 million USD (accounting for 10%), decreased by 72.1%. Import turnover of service in nine months of this year was estimated at 14.35 billion USD, edged up by 7.2% over the same period last year (in the third quarter reached 4.8 billion USD, up 6.9%), of which transport services gained 7.4 billion USD (accounting for 51.2% of total turnover), increased by 32.9%; travel services reached 2.7 billion USD (sharing 18.7%), declined by 24.1%. The trade deficit of services in nine months of 2021 was 11.69 billion USD.
10. Rents fell during social distancing; tuition fees for the academic year 2021-2022 are exempt or reduced in some localities; foodstuff prices fell due to guaranteed supply; the implementation of Resolution No. 83/NQ-CP dated July 31st, 2021 of the Government on the plan to support electricity price reduction, the 4th phase of electricity bill reduction for customers affected by the Covid-19 epidemic were the main reasons for the consumer price index (CPI) in September 2021 decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous month, increased by 1.88% compared to December 2020. The producer price index, input producer price index used for production, the merchandise export and import price indexes of goods in 9 months of 2021 all increased over the same period last year. Merchandise term of trade in the nine months of the year decreased by 3.75% over the same period in 2020, reflecting the unfavorable export price of Vietnam’s goods abroad compared to the price of goods imported from abroad to Vietnam.
a) Consumer price index
In the decrease of CPI in September 2021 compared to the previous month, 5/11 groups of goods and services had a decrease in the price index, of which the education group had the largest decrease. Average CPI in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.51% over the same period last year. In 9 months of 2021, CPI increased by 1.82% over the same period last year, the lowest increase since 2016[12]. Core inflation in the 9 months increased by 0.88%.
b) Gold price index and US Dollar
The world gold price increased due to the weakening of the dollar along with the stock market and financial turmoil in the context of Evergade, China’s largest real estate group facing the risk of default, prompting investors to seek safe assets like gold. Domestically, the gold price index in September 2021 remained stable compared to the previous month; down 1.64% compared to December 2020 and down 2.7% over the same period in 2020.
US dollar price index in September 2021 decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous month; down 1.14% compared to December 2020 and down 1.35% over the same period in 2020.
c) Producer price index and price index of materials, fuels used for production
Producer price index (PPI) for agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 2.28% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 0.05% over the same period last year; similarly, PPI for industrial products increased by 1.12% and 3.71%; PPI for services decreased by 0.07% and increased by 0.46%. In 9 months of 2021, the PPI for agricultural, forestry and fishery products increased by 2.82% over the same period in 2020; PPI for industrial products increased by 2.44%; PPI for services increased by 0.68%.
The price index of materials, fuels used for production in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 1.36% compared to the previous quarter and by 5.36% over the same period last year. In 9 months of 2021, the price index of materials, fuels used for production increased by 4.87% over the same in the period last year, of which the price index of materials, fuels used for agriculture, forestry, and fishing increased by 6.66%; used for manufacturing increased by 5.18%; used for construction increased by 3.59%.
d) Merchandise import and export price index
In the third quarter of 2021, the merchandise export price index increased by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.72% over the same period last year; the merchandise import price index increased by 4.17% and by 9.46%; merchandise term of trade[13] decreased by 2.95% and by 5.24%. In 9 months of this year, the merchandise export price index increased by 2.05% over the same period last year; the merchandise import price index increased by 6.03%; the merchandising term of trade decreased by 3.75%.
II. SOME SOCIAL ISSUES
1. The complicated developments of the Covid-19 pandemic have negatively affected the labor situation, employment in the third quarter of 2021, the labor force working in the economy decreased sharply compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same period last year[14], the unemployment and underemployment rate of working-age increased to the highest level since the first quarter of 2020[15].
In the third quarter of 2021, the labor force aged 15 years and over of the whole country was estimated at 49.2 million persons, a decrease of 1.9 million persons over the previous quarter and decreased of 2.1 million persons over the same period last year; the employed population aged 15 years and over was 47.5 million persons. Generally, for the nine months in 2021, the labor force aged 15 years and over was 50.4 million persons, decreased of 216 thousand persons compared to the same period last year; the employed population aged 15 years and overworking were 49.1 million persons.
In 9 months of 2021, the unemployment rate of the labor force in working age was 2.91% (the third quarter was 3.72%), of which the urban area was 3.78%; the rural area was 2.39%.
The underemployment rate at working age in the nine months was 3.04%, of which the urban and rural area was 3.0% and 3.07%, respectively.
2. In the nine months of this year, the complicated and prolonged situation of the Covid-19 epidemic has significantly affected people’s lives and economic development, especially in some southern localities. Faced with that situation, the Government and Prime Minister have directed ministries, branches, and localities to give priority to disease prevention and control with the main task of ensuring social security and people’s lives, especially people in localities applied social distancing, ensuring people have enough to eat and clothe.
Effectively implement Resolution No. 68/NQ-CP dated July 1, 2021, and Resolution No. 86/NQ-CP dated August 6, 2021, of the Government; Decision No. 23/2021/QD-TTg of the Prime Minister, as of September 21, 2021, the total funding from the central budget has supported nearly 13.8 trillion VND for nearly 17.6 million subjects, of which 11.4 trillion VND was spent on 23 provinces and cities[16] heavily affected by the epidemic; exported 136,349.6 tons of rice from the national reserve to more than 2.4 million households with nearly 9.1 million people facing difficulties due to the epidemic in 30 provinces and centrally-run cities. . Of which, Ho Chi Minh City alone has spent over 5,446 billion VND (accounting for 40% of the whole country) to support over 4.8 million objects (accounting for 27.3% of the whole country) and awarded 1.8 million social security bags association for people.
Periodic social security and sustainable poverty reduction continue to be concerned. In the nine months of 2021, the total value of money and gifts to support the beneficiaries was 10,434.1 billion VND, of which, support for the beneficiaries, people with meritorious services, relatives of people with meritorious services was 4,014.9 billion VND, support for poor and near-poor households is 1,624 billion VND; support for hunger relief for social protection beneficiaries and other beneficiaries was 2,349.1 billion VND; support for people due to flood, storm, drought, saltwater intrusion… was 2,446.1 billion VND. There were more than 29.3 million social insurance cards/books/cards for free medical examination and treatment distributed to beneficiaries.
3. The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly affected the education sector of the country, especially Ho Chi Minh city and the southern provinces. To adapt to the actual situation, the Ministry of Education and Training promptly issued response plans; appropriate direction and guidance to both ensure the safety of students and teachers, as well as implement the school year plan.
The national high school graduation exam in 2021 was held in two phases to ensure the safety of candidates taking part in the exam, the first phase on July 7-8, 2021, and the second phase on August 6-7, 2021.
As of August 2021, the whole country has 1,909 vocational education institutions, of which 409 colleges (312 public schools); 442 secondary schools (211 public schools); 1,058 vocational education centers (698 public centers). The total number of private vocational education institutions is 688 institutions (accounting for 36%).
General, in the 8 months of 2021, vocational training has recruited 995 thousand new people, reaching 41.9% of the year plan, of which 95 thousand people enrolled at college and intermediate level; elementary level and other vocational training programs recruited 900 thousand people (of which 450 thousand people trained in rural areas).
4. The epidemic of Covid-19 in the world continues to be complicated[17]. In Vietnam, the Covid-19 pandemic is gradually being controlled and there are positive changes, the number of community cases and deaths tend to decrease.
Generally, in the 9 months of 2021, there were 47,426 cases of hemorrhagic fever (16 cases died); 37,733 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (11 cases died); 445 cases of virus encephalitis (6 cases died); 14 trường cases of meningococcal disease (2 cases died) and 392 cases of scarlet fever suspected for measles, of which 39 were positive for measles.
The total number of people living with HIV nationwide as of September 18, 2021, was 212,526 persons; 89,710 cases turned to AIDS and the number of deaths by HIV/AIDS as of the above time-point was 108,061 people.
About food poisoning, generally in the 9 months of 2021, there were 52 cases of food poisoning with 1,481 people poisoned (5 deaths).
5. Due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, cultural and sports activities were not organized; high-performance sports achieved some outstanding results. Library activities towards information technology application, especially digital technology to improve operational capacity and form a modern library network, providing services to meet the needs of users.
The protection and promotion of cultural heritage values are very concerned and implemented by localities. Continue to perfect and develop projects to preserve and promote traditional culture, build the culture of ethnic minorities and mountainous areas, and build grassroots cultural life to create a healthy cultural environment, help each citizen have conditions to improve the quality of life.
Vietnam’s high-achieving sports achieved some outstanding results: Athlete Le Van Cong excellently won a silver medal in weightlifting in the 49kg category at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympics; At the Futsal World Cup 2021, the Vietnamese Futsal team has achieved outstanding feats when scoring in all its matches and reaching the round of 16 for the second time.
Preparations for two major sports events, the 31st Southeast Asian Games (SEA Games 31) and the 11th Para Games (ASEAN Para Games 11) scheduled to take place in October. December 2021 in Vietnam is being actively deployed in a drastic and urgent spirit so that all stages of the organization are completed on time while ensuring absolute safety in disease prevention and control, security and order, social safety, fire prevention, and environmental protection.
6. In September and 9 months of 2021, the number of traffic accidents, the number of deaths, and the number of people injured from traffic accidents decreased sharply compared to the previous month and compared to the same period last year because many localities continued to implement COVID-19 prevention and control according to Directive No. 15/CT-TTg and Directive No. 16/CT-TTg of the Prime Minister.
In the nine months of 2021, there were 8,135 traffic accidents nationwide, including 5,237 traffic accidents of less serious or more serious and 2,898 traffic collisions, causing 4,146 deaths and 2,695 deaths, injured and 2,932 minor injuries. Compared with the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in the nine months of this year decreased by 21.4% (the number of traffic accidents of less serious or more serious decreased by 12.4%; the number of traffic collisions decreased by 33 .7%); the number of deaths decreased by 15%; the number of injured people decreased by 13.8% and the number of minor injuries decreased by 34.6%. On average, each day in 9 months of 2021, nationwide had 30 traffic accidents, including 19 traffic accidents of less serious or more serious and 11 traffic collisions, causing 15 deaths, 10 people were injured and 11 people were minor injuries.
7. Natural disasters, environmental pollution, and fires and explosions significantly affected people’s lives in some localities.
For the nine months of this year, natural disasters made 77 people dead and missing, 121 people injured; 25.2 thousand cattle and poultry died; 86.1 thousand hectares of rice and 44.9 thousand hectares of crops were damaged; 579 houses collapsed, swept away and 12.8 thousand houses were flooded and damaged; total value of property damage was estimated at 1,355.2 billion VND, down 81.1% over the same period last year.
There were 12,365 cases of environmental violations detected in the nine months of 2021, of which handled 10,943 ones with a total fine of 191.1 billion VND; there were 1,770 fires and explosions in the whole country, killing 82 people and injuring 120 others, with the estimated damage value of 343.9 billion VND./.
[1] Ha Noi, Ninh Binh, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Lao Cai, Bac Kan, Lang Son, Tuyen Quang, Yen Bai, Quang Ninh, Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Son La, Hoa Binh, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Khanh Hoa, Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau.
[2] Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Bac Kan, Dien Bien, Tuyen Quang, Son La, Nghe An, Quang Tri, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Lam Dong, Binh Phuoc, Tay Ninh, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Long An, Dong Thap, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, and Kien Giang.
[3] Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, from August 15, 2021, to September 15, 2021.
[4] This data may not reflect the actual number of enterprises withdrawing from the market, because, in the condition that many localities have to carry out socialization, enterprises cannot carry out procedures related to withdrawal from the market.
[5] Source: National Enterprise Registration Information System, Business Registration Management Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment (Received the report on 25th September 2021)
[6] Corresponding index of the second quarter of 2021: 30.5% of enterprises rated their business and production situation better joint; 37.7% of enterprises said that the business and production situation was stable and 31.8% of enterprises rated that it was difficult compared to the previous quarter.
[7] According to the report of the Foreign Investment Department, Ministry of Planning and Investment, received on 22/9/2021.
[8] Total export and import turnover in nine months of 2020 reached 388.42 billion USD, went up 1.7% over the same period last year, of which exports reached 202.54 billion USD, increased by 4.1%; import reached 185.88 billion USD, went down 0.8%.
[9] Data in September 2021 meeting by an interdisciplinary team consisting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the State Bank of Viet Nam, the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office meeting estimates based on export turnover figures, import as of September 27, 2021 of the General Department of Customs combined with market information, the proportion and trend of export and import of goods. The General Statistics Office received and updated the report on the afternoon of September 28, 2021.
[10] The trade deficit in August 2021 was estimated at 1.3 billion USD.
[11] In which, in 9 months of 2021, the trade surplus to the EU reached 16.2 billion USD, rose by 6.5% over the same period last year; trade deficit from China was 42.8 billion USD, went up 70.6%; trade deficit from Korea was 24.1 billion USD, going up 29.6%; trade deficit from ASEAN was 10.1 billion USD, increased by 112.3%.
[12] The average CPI growth rate of 9 months compared to the same period last year in 2016-2021: 2.07%; 3.79%; 3.57%; 2.5%; 3.85%; 1.82%, respectively.
[13] Merchandise export price index/ Merchandise import price index.
[14] The employed population aged 15 years and over in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 2.4 million people compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 2.5 million people compared to the same period last year…
[15] The unemployment rate of working age in the first quarter of 2020 was 2.34%; the second quarter of 2020 was 2.85%; the third quarter of 2020 was 2.73%; the fourth quarter of 2020 was 2.63%; the first quarter of 2021 was 2.42%; The second quarter of 2021 was 2.62% and the third quarter of 2021 was 3.72%.
The underemployment rate in the working-age in the first quarter of 2020 was 1.98%; the second quarter of 2020 was 2.98%; the third quarter of 2020 was 2.72%; the fourth quarter of 2020 was 1.82%; the first quarter of 2021 was 2.20%; the second quarter of 2021 was 2.60% and the third quarter of 2021 was 4.39%.
[16] Ha Noi, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa, Phu Yen and 19 provinces, cities in the South East, and Mekong River Delta.
[17] As of 17:00 on September 27, 2021, in the world, there were 232,652 thousand cases of Covid-19 (4,763.3 thousand deaths).