INTERNATIONAL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT
Socio-economic conditions in the first six months of 2021 of our country took place in the context of the world economy gradually recovering. Several countries promote vaccination against Covid-19 and have achieved initial results at first, developed countries gradually reopened. The World Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and other international organizations have made positive forecasts about the global economic outlook[1]. Strong economies in the world such as the US, China, Japan, and the EU are forecasted to achieve decent growth thanks to efforts to vaccinate and issue economic bailout packages[2]. Global trade continues to recover[3], world commodity prices tend to increase, inflation, and financial risks have been increased in some strong economies, affecting investment, production, and import and export. Domestically, following the important and impressive results achieved in 2020, Viet Nam’s macro-economy still has been stable, the weather in the first months of the year was relatively favorable, production and business achieved good results. However, the fourth wave of the Covid-19 epidemic broke out from the end of April, especially in economic focal provinces such as Hanoi, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Da Nang, Thanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, and still complicated developments have posed many challenges in management and administration to develop the economy and ensure social security. In the context of intertwined advantages and difficulties, the task of implementing “dual goals” was strongly directed by the Government and the Prime Minister. The solutions to prevent the Covid-19 epidemic have been strongly, synchronously, flexibly, and effectively implemented by ministries, sectors, and localities, with the primary goal of taking care of and protecting the health and lives of people, with the best efforts to realize socio-economic development goals and tasks in 2021. Achievements of sectors and fields in the second quarter and first six months of 2021 are as follows:
I. ECONOMIC GROWTH
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first 6 months of 2021 increased by 5.64% despite the outbreak of Covid-19 in some localities across the country since the end of April, showing drastic direction and management of the Government, the Prime Minister; the joint effort and consensus of the political system, the business community, the people of the country and the frontline force against the pandemic, carry out tasks and solutions for socio-economic development (GDP in the second quarter of 2021 was estimated to increase by 6.61% over the same period last year).
Regarding the structure of the economy in the first 6 months of 2021, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector accounted for 12.15%; industry and construction accounted for 37.61%; service sector accounted for 41.13%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.11%.
Regarding GDP use in the first 6 months of 2021, final consumption increased by 3.56% over the same period in 2020; accumulated assets increased by 5.67%; exports of goods and services increased by 24.05%; imports of goods and services increased by 22.76
2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery production in the first 6 months of 2021 took place in relatively favorable weather conditions, crop productivity was quite good, especially winter-spring rice with the highest yield ever at 68.3 quintals/ha; pig breeding is recovering, poultry breeding is developing well, pig and poultry population at the end of June was estimated to increase by 11.6% and 5.4% against the same period last year. Fishery exports showed signs of recovery, import demand for pangasius in foreign markets increased again, vannamei shrimp output in the first six months increased by 15.4% over the same period last year.
a) Agriculture
Winter-spring paddy this year, the country cultivated 3,006.7 thousand hectares, an equal to 99.4% of Winter-spring paddy last year, of which Northern provinces reached 1,086.6 thousand hectares, an equal to 99%; Southern provinces reached 1,920.1 thousand hectares, equaling 99.7%. According to the preliminary report, the yield of winter-spring paddy nationwide was estimated at 68.3 quintals/hectares, an increase of 2.6 quintals/hectare compared with that of over the previous winter-spring crop.
As of the Middle of June, localities in the whole country cultivated 1,846.2 thousand hectares of summer-autumn paddy, equaling 105.6% of the same period last year, of which the Mekong River Delta reached 1,448.7 thousand hectares, an equal to 104.7%. There were 147.7 thousand hectares of early summer-autumn paddy in Mekong River Delta for harvest, account for 10.2 % of the cultivated area.
As of mid-June, localities across the country cultivated 558.5 thousand hectares of maize, equaling 99.1% over the same period last year; 73.1 thousand hectares of sweet potatoes, equaling 100.3%; 19.4 thousand hectares of soybeans, equaling 87%; 131.7 thousand hectares of groundnut, equaling 96.9%; 731.2 thousand hectares of vegetables and beans, equaling 100.9%.
Production of perennial industrial crops in the first six months increased compared with the same period last year: Tea reached 488.7 thousand tons, rising by 2.3%; rubber reached 390.6 thousand tons, rising by 3%; cashew nuts reached 342.8 thousand tons, an increase of 4.6%; pepper reached 271.7 thousand tons, rising by 3.1%. Production of some fruits was recorded well: dragon fruit reached 671.7 thousand tons, rising by 7.4% over the same period last year; mangoes reached 568.2 thousand tons, rising by 3.3%; oranges reached 326.1 thousand tons, rising by 3.1% grapefruit reached 258.5 thousand tons, rising by 10.7%; litchi reached 154.2 thousand tons, rising by 7.9%; logan reached 179.9 thousand tons, rising by 3.4%.
Buffalo population at the end of June 2021 was estimated to decrease by 3.1% against the same period last year; cattle population increased by 2.5%; the pig population increased by 11.6% %; the poultry population grew by 5.4%. It was estimated in the first 6 months of 2021, production of buffalo living weight reached 60.9 thousand tons, falling by 0.1% (in the second quarter, it reached 27.4 thousand tons, falling by 1%); production of cattle living weight reached 231 thousand tons, rising by 4.2% (it was recorded to reach 106.4 thousand tons in the second quarter, an increase of 4.6%); cow milk production reached 561.1 thousand tons, rising by 11.2% (the second quarter reached 285.5 thousand tons, rising by 12.8%); production of pig living weight reached 2,002.2 thousand tons, rising by 8.1% compared to the same period last year (it reached 1,003.7 thousand tons in the second quarter, rising by 8.6%); poultry living weight reached 932.2 thousand tons, rising by 6.1% (in the second quarter, it reached 450.5 thousand tons, rising by 6.1%); production of poultry eggs reached 8.4 billion eggs, rising by 5% (it reached 4 billion eggs in the second quarter, rising by 5.6%).
As of June 21, 2021, the country was no longer recorded cases of blue ear disease in pigs. Some diseases remained in several localities for less than 21 days: avian influenza remained in Ha Noi, Cao Bang, Hoa Binh, Tien Giang, Dong Thap; foot and mouth disease remained in Son La, Ha Tinh; African swine fever was reported in 30 provinces and LSD reported in 32 provinces.
b) Forestry
The concentrated newly planted forest area in 6 months was estimated at 110.4 thousand ha, up 3.1% over the same period last year (77.2 thousand ha in the second quarter, up 3.7%); the number of scattered planted trees reached 46.5 million trees, up 2.2% (the second quarter reached 20.1 million trees, up 2.6%); timber production reached 7,945.6 thousand m3, an increase of 5.7% (in the second quarter, it reached 4,909.7 thousand m3, an increase of 5.9%); firewood production reached 9.9 million steres, down 0.1% (it reached 5.4 million steres in the second quarter, equaled to the same period last year).
The damaged forest area in the first six months of 2021 estimated at 955.6 hectares, an increase of 31.1% over the same period last year, including the burnt forest area is 283.2 hectares, an increase of 1.0%; the deforested forest area was 672.4 hectares, an increase of 49.9%.
c) Fishery
Fishery production in the first 6 months of the year was estimated at 4,096.3 thousand tons, up 2.8% over the same period last year (in the second quarter of 2021, reaching 2,269.6 thousand tons, up 3.3%), including fish reached 3,003.6 thousand tons, up 1.5%; shrimp reached 465.2 thousand tons, up 8.8%; other aquatic products reached 627.5 thousand tons, up 4.7%.
Aquaculture production in the first 6 months of 2021 was estimated at 2,104.8 thousand tons, up 4.1% over the same period last year (in the second quarter of 2021 it reached 1,164.5 thousand tons, up 4.9%), fish reached 1,456.7 thousand tons, up 1.7%; shrimp reached 392.9 thousand tons, up 10.7%. Pangasius output reached 705.1 thousand tons, up 1.0% over the same period last year; vannamei shrimp production reached 254.6 thousand tons, up 15.4%; black tiger shrimp production reached 113.1 thousand tons, up 1.9%.
Catch fishery production in the first 6 months was estimated at 1,991.5 thousand tons, up 1.4% over the same period last year (it reached 1,105.1 thousand tons in the second quarter, up 1.6%), of which catch fish reached 1,546.9 thousand tons, up 1.3%; shrimp reached 72.3 thousand tons, down 0.4%.
3. Industrial production in the second quarter of 2021 grew quite well because business activities of enterprises were maintained and gradually recovered, the growth rate of added value reached 11.45% over the same period last year[4]. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2021, the added value of the industry increased by 8.91%, of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 11.42%, higher than the growth rate of 5.06% of the same period in 2020.
The added value of the whole industry in the first 6 months of 2021 was estimated to increase by 8.91% over the same period last year (the second quarter increased by 11.45%). In which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 11.42%; electricity production and distribution increased by 8.16%; the water supply and wastewater treatment industry increased by 6.75%; the mining industry decreased by 6.61% due to a decrease in crude oil production by 7.3% and a decrease in gaseous natural by 12.5%.
The Consumption index of the manufacturing industry in the first 6 months of the year increased by 9.3% over the same period last year. The inventory index of the manufacturing industry was estimated as of June 30, 2021, increasing by 24.3% over the same period last year (in the same period of 2020 it increased by 26.7%). The average inventory rate of the manufacturing industry in the first 6 months of 2021 reached 75.2% (the same period last year was 81.5%).
4. Newly established enterprises in the first 6 months of 2021 reached 67.1 thousand interprises, increased by 8.1% compared to the same period last year, and increased by 34,3% in the registered capital. The increase in the number and capital of newly registered enterprises showed the efforts and entrepreneurial spirit of the business community in the context of the complicated development of the epidemic. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2021, the total number of newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises reached 93.2 thousand enterprises, increased by 6.9% compared to the same period 2020; the average registered capital of a newly established enterprise reached 14,1 billion VND, increased by 24.2%. Results on the business tendency survey of the manufacturing enterprises in the second quarter of 2021 still recorded a positive assessment when 68.2% of enterprises identified their production and business activities in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2021 is better and stable.
a) Enterprise registration status[5]
In June 2021, the whole country had 11.3 thousand newly established enterprises with registered capital were 164.3 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of nearly 71.9 thousand employees, a decrease of 2,5% in the number of enterprises, an increase of 9.1% in the registered capital and a decrease of 0.4% in the number of employees compared to last month[6]. Generally, in the first 6 months of this year, the whole country had nearly 67.1 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 942.6 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of 484.3 thousand employees, up 8.1% in the number of enterprises, an increase of 34.3% in number the registered capital and a decrease of 4.5% in the number of employees compared to the same period last year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 6 months achieved 14.1 billion VND, climbing up 24.2% compared to the same period last year. If including 1,152.5 trillion VND of the additionally registered capital of nearly 23.7 thousand enterprises that recorded an upward adjustment of capital, the total additional registered capital in the economy in 6 months of this year was 2,095.1 trillion VND. Besides, there were 26.1 thousand re-operated enterprises, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year, bringing the total number of newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises in 6 months to 93.2 thousand enterprises, the average every month had 15.5 thousand newly established enterprises and re-operated enterprises.
In 6 months, this year, there were 35.6 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased for a certain time, an increase of 22.1% compared to the same period last year; 24.7 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, a climbing up 25.7%; 9.9 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 33.8%
b) Business trends of the enterprises
Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the second quarter of 2021 showed that: 30.5% of enterprises assessed that the business production situation was better than the first quarter of 2021; 37.7% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable and 31.8% of enterprises faced difficulties[7]. For the expected outcome of the third quarter of 2021, 39.2% of enterprises presented that the tendency would get better than the second quarter of 2021; 22.2% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficult and 38.6% of enterprises said that business production situation would be stable.
5. Trade, transport, and tourism activities, in general, were still negatively affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. However, due to the drastic direction of the Government and the Prime Minister, the initiative and creative ways of localities, the support of the people and businesses in the implementation of the “dual goals”, in the first 6 months of 2021, total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 4.9% over the same period last year (decreased by 1.1% in the same period in 2020); freight carried increased by 11.5%, freight traffic increased by 11.3% over the same period last year.
Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first 6 months of 2021 reached 2,463.8 trillion VND, up 4.9% over the same period last year, if excluding the price factor, an increase of 3.55% (the same period in 2020 decreased by 5.77%), of which in the second quarter of 2021, the gross retail sales of consumer goods and services was estimated at 1,177.6 trillion VND, down 8.4% compared to the previous quarter and up 5.1% over the same period last year. By economic activities, retail sales of goods in 6 months reached 1,985.4 trillion VND, accounting for 80.6% of the total and increasing by 6.2% over the same period last year[8]; revenue from accommodation and catering services in the first 6 months of this year was estimated at 224 trillion, accounting for 9.1% of the total and down 2.7% over the same period last year (the same period in 2020 decreased by 20.3%); revenue from tourism and traveling services was estimated at 4.5 trillion VND, accounting for 0.2% of the total and down 51.8% over the same period last year; revenue from other services in 6 months was estimated at 249.9 trillion VND, accounting for 10.1% of the total and increasing by 4.4% over the same period in 2020.
In the first 6 months of 2021, passenger carried reached 1,813.5 million passengers, decreased by 0.7% over the same period last year (the same period of 2020 down 26.8%) and passenger traffic gained 78.8 billion passengers-km, down 5,7% (the same period of 2020 decreased by 31.7%), of which in the second quarter of this year, passengers carried was estimated 844.4 million persons, an increase of 24.3% over the same period last year and passenger traffic reached 37.5 billion passengers-kilometers, up 23.7%. Freight carried the first 6 months of 2021, freight carried reached 903.5 million tons, up 11.5% against the similar period last year (the same period in 2020 decreased by 7.8%) and freight traffic gained 178 billion tons-km, went up 11.3% (the same period of 2020 decreased by 7%), of which freight carried in the second quarter of this year was estimated 439.6 million tons, an increase of 15.2% over the same period last year and freight traffic reached 91.3 billion tons-km, up 18%.
Telecommunications revenue in the first 6 months of 2021was estimated to reach 158 trillion VND, increased by 2.4% compared to last year (if excluding the price factor, the increase was 3.3%). By the end of June 2021, the total number of telephone subscribers was estimated at 126.7 million subscribers, an increase of 0.3% compared to the same period last year, of which mobile phone subscribers reached 123.3 million subscribers, rising by 0.4%; the number of fixed broadband internet subscribers recorded 17.9 million subscribers, up 13.1%.
International visitors to Viet Nam in June were estimated at 7.2 thousand arrivals, went down 46.5% compared to the previous month and decreased by 18% compared to the same period last year. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2021, international visitors to Viet Nam was estimated at 88.2 thousand arrivals, went down by 97.6% compared to the same period last year, of which visitors coming by airway gained 55.7 thousand persons, accounting for 63.2% of the number of international visitors to Viet Nam, dropped by 98.2%; by roadway achieved 32.3 thousand arrivals, accounted for 36.6% and went down by 94.2%; by seaway achieved 216 arrivals, accounted for 0.2% and decreased by 99.9%. International visitors to Viet Nam from Asia recorded 77.6 thousand arrivals, decreased by 97.2% over the same period last year; from Europe in the first 6 months reached 6.9 thousand arrivals, down 99% compared to the same period last year; from America gained 2.4 thousand arrivals, down 99%; visitors from Oceania reached 648 arrivals, dropped by 99.4%; from Africa reached 666 visitors, reduced by 94.5%.
6. Production and business activities of the economy are gradually recovered; credit demand of businesses and people tend to increase when the State Bank of Vietnam implemented interest rate cuts in 2020. The insurance business grew positively, the stock market[9] increased strongly with total capital mobilization for the economy increased by 68%.
As of June 21, 2021, the total means of payment increased by 3.48% compared to the end of 2020 (at the same time in 2020 increased by 4.59%); capital mobilization by credit institutions increased by 3.13% (in the same period of 2020 increased by 4.35%); credit growth of the economy reached 5.47% (in the same period in 2020 it increased by 2.45%).
Insurance premium revenue for the whole market in the first 6 months of 2021 is estimated to increase by 17% compared to the same period last year (the second quarter increased by 11%), of which life insurance premium revenue increased by 22%; the non-life insurance sector increased by 7%. By the end of May 2021, insurance enterprises’ investment back into the economy was estimated at 512.9 trillion VND, up 26.7% over the same period in 2020; total assets of the entire insurance market reached 628.4 trillion VND, up by 23.2%.
By the end of May, the total capital mobilization for the economy of the stock market was estimated at 116.4 trillion VND, up 68% over the same period last year. On the stock market, as of June 20, 2021, the VNIndex[10] reached 1,377.8 points, up 3.7% compared to the end of last month and up 24.8% compared to the end of last year; market capitalization reached 6,699.5 trillion VND, up by 64.5% over the same period last year. The average transaction value in June (until June 20) reached 32,013 billion VND/session, up 265.3% over the same period in 2020; in general, in the first 6 months of 2021, the average trading value on the market reached 22,428 billion VND/session, up 302.3%. On the bond market, as of the end of May 2021, there were 456 listed bond codes with a listed value of 1,381 trillion VND, down 0.5% over the same period in 2020. In the field of derivatives and other products, the average transaction size as of June 20, 2021, reached 34,121 billion VND/session, up 137.8% over the same period last year; accumulated in the first 6 months of 2021 reached 24,041 billion VND/session, up 90.9%.
7. Realized investment capital in the first 6 months of 2021 at current prices was estimated at 1,169.7 trillion VND, up 7.2% over the same period last year, much higher than the 3% increase in 2020. This increase reflected the results of solutions to promote the disbursement of public investment capital and the effectiveness of the State’s support policies for the business community, as well as the trend to anticipate the shifting FDI inflows into Vietnam in the context of the Covid-19 epidemic well controlled.
The realized investment in the first 6 months of 2021 at current prices estimated at 1,169.7 trillion VND, increasing by 7.2% over the same period of last year (the investment in the 2nd quarter was estimated at 661.1 trillion VND, a growth of 7.8%), of which: the investment capital of the State sector reached 295.2 trillion VND, representing 25.3% of the total capital and increasing by 7.3% compared to the same period of last year; the non-state sector gained 660.1 trillion VND, accounting for 56.4% and rising by 7.4%; the foreign direct investment recorded 214.4 trillion VND, accounting for 18.3% and increasing by 6.7%.
The foreign direct investment from the beginning of the year to 20th June, 2021 including newly registered capital, adjust registered investment capital and the total value of capital contribution reached 15.,27 billion USD, decreased by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2020. Of which, 804 newly licensed projects with a registered capital of 9.55 billion USD, an decrease of 43.3% in the number of projects and a growth of 13.2% of registered capital as compared to the same period last year; 460 turns of projects which were licensed in from the previous years registered to adjust investment capital with the additional capital of 4.12 billion USD, increased by 10.6%; 1,855 turns of capital contribution and share purchases of foreign investors with a total value of the capital contribution of 1.60 billion USD, a drop of 54.3%. Including 624 turns of capital contribution capital, share purchase, causing the increased of charter capital of the enterprise with the value of contributed capital of 772.7 million USD and 1,231 turns of foreign investors repurchased domestic shares without increasing the charter capital with a value of 832.9 million USD. Foreign direct investment capital that implemented in the first four six months of the year2021 reached 9.24 billion USD, a growth of 6.8% over the same period last year
Vietnam’s investment abroad in the first six months of the year, there were 24 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total investment capital of 143.8 million USD, equaled to 77.6% over the same period[11]; 9 times turns of projects adjusted capital with an additional capital of 403.2 million USD, up 10.8 times over the same period last year[12]. Generally, the total investment capital of Vietnam abroad (newly and additionally licensed capital) reached 547 million USD, 2.5 times higher than the same period
8. State budget revenues progress in the first six months of 2021 was quite good in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic complicated, estimated at 57.7% of the yearly plan. Budget expenditures were made according to the estimate and progress of professional tasks of the budget-using units, prioritizing spending on Covid-19 pandemic prevention and control activities.
Total estimated State budget revenues of the first 6 months in 2021 achieved 775 trillion VND, equaling 57.7% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues recorded 633.1 trillion VND, equaling 55.9%; crude oil revenue gained 18.5 trillion VND, equaling 79.8%; budget balance revenue from export-import balance obtained 122.8 trillion VND, equaling 68.8%.
Total State budget expenditures of the first 6 months in 2021 were estimated at 694.4 trillion VND, equaling 41.2% of the annual estimate, of which recurrent expenditures were 501 trillion VND, equaling 48.3%; expenditure on development investment achieved 133.9 trillion VND, equaling 28.1%; 56.8 trillion VND were spent on debt interest payment, equaling 51.6%.
9. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic continuing to have complicated developments, spreading to many provinces and cities in the country, affecting the production activities of a number of enterprises in the industrial park, the export, imports turnover in June decreased slightly compared to the previous month, but still achieved a good growth compared to the same period last year. Total export and import turnover of goods in June 2021 was estimated at 54 billion USD, grew up 25% over the same period last year. Generally, in the first 6 months, total import-export turnover was estimated at 316.73 billion USD, rose by 32.2% over the same period last year, of which export turnover reached 157.63 billion USD, increased by 28.4%; import turnover reached 159.1 billion USD, increased by 36.1%[13]. The trade balance of goods in the first 6 months of 2021 was estimated to have a trade deficit of 1.47 billion USD.
a) Export and import of goods[14]
Export turnover in June 2021 was estimated at 26.5 billion USD, increased by 1.2% over the previous month. In the second quarter of 2021, export turnover reached 79.23 billion USD, grew by 33.5% over the same period in 2020 and rose by 1.1% compared to the first quarter of this year; there were 12 products with an export turnover of more than 1 billion USD, accounting for 75.3% of total export turnover. Generally in the first six months of 2021, the export turnover was estimated at 157.63 billion USD, rose by 28.4% over the same period in 2020, of which, the domestic economic sector was 40.89 billion USD, went up 16.8%, accounting for 25.9% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 116.74 billion USD, increased by 33%, sharing 74.1%; there were 25 products with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, contributing 88.9% to the total export turnover (5 products with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 58%).
Import turnover in June 2021 was estimated at 27.5 billion USD, decreased by 2.7% over the previous month. In the second quarter of 2021, the import turnover reached 83.5 billion USD, rose by 45.7% over the same period in 2020 and grew by 10.4% compared to the first quarter of this year; 18 products had an import turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 76.1% of the total import turnover. Generally, in the first six months of 2021, the import turnover was estimated at 159.1 billion USD, increased by 36.1% over the same period in 2020, of which the domestic economic sector reached 55.9 billion USD, went up by 30.2%; the FDI sector gained 103.2 billion USD, edged up by 39.5%; there were 31 imported products with a turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 87.4% of total import turnover.
The trade balance of goods in May 2021 witnessed a trade deficit of 2.07 billion USD[15]; trade deficit for the first five months was 0.47 billion USD; trade deficit for June 2021 was 1 billion USD; trade deficit in the first six months of 2021 was estimated at 1.47 billion USD[16], of which the domestic economic sector saw a trade deficit of 15.01 billion USD; the FDI sector (including crude oil) saw a trade surplus of 13.54 billion USD.
b) Export and import of services
In the first six months of 2021, export turnover of services was estimated at 1.77 billion USD, went down by 68.5% over the same period in 2020 (second quarter reached 891 million USD, decreased by 18.6%), of which travel service gained 82 million USD (accounting for 4.6% of the total turnover), decreased by 97.4%; transportation service reached 147 million USD (accounting for 8.3%), decreased by 80.8%. Import turnover of service in the first six months of this year was estimated at 9.47 billion USD, edged up by 6.4% over the same period last year (second quarter reached 4.8 billion USD, went up by 18.3%), of which transport services gained 4.8 billion USD (accounting for 50.2% of total turnover), increased by 32.7%; travel services reached 1.8 billion USD (sharing 19%), declined by 25.9%. Trade deficit of services in six months of 2021 was 7.7 billion USD.
10. The price of input materials increased according to the world price; the increase in the price of electricity and water for a living in line with consumer demand were the main reasons for the consumer price index (CPI) in June 2021 increased by 0.19% compared to the previous month, went up by 1.62% compared to December 2020 and rose by 2.41% compared to June 2020. On average, in the first 6 months of 2021, CPI increased by 1.47% over the same period last year, the lowest increase since 2016[17]; core inflation in 6 months increased by 0.87%. The world economy entered the recovery phase; organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies continue to maintain the level of oil production below the world’s demand, which were the main reason for the producer price index of goods and services, input producer price index used for production, the merchandise export and import price indexes of goods in the first 6 months of 2021 all increased over the same period last year. The merchandise term of trade in the first six months of the year decreased by 0.99% over the same period in 2020, reflecting the unfavourable export price of Vietnam’s goods abroad compared to the price of goods imported from abroad to Vietnam.
a) Consumer price index
In the increase of CPI in June 2021 compared to the previous month, there were 8 groups of goods and services with an increase in the price index, 2 groups with a decrease in the price index, and 1 group with a stable price, of which transport group had the highest increase with 1.07%. In the second quarter of 2021, CPI increased by 0.45% compared to the previous quarter and by 2.67% over the same period in 2020. The average CPI in the first 6 months of 2021 increased by 1.47% compared to the same period in 2020. Average core inflation in the first 6 months of 2021 increased by 0.87% over the same period in 2020.
b) Gold price index and US dollar
The price of domestic gold fluctuated opposite to the world gold price, the gold price index in June 2021 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous month; increased by 0.23% compared to December 2020, and increased by 12.37% over the same period in 2020.
US dollar price index in June 2021 decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month; went down by 0.32% compared to December 2020 and fell by 0.87% over the same period in 2020.
c) Producer price index and price index of materials, fuels used for production
Producer price index (PPI) for agriculture, forestry, and fishery products in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 0.24% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.87% over the same period last year; similarly, PPI for industry products increased by 1.4% and 3.39%; PPI for services increased by 0.01% and by 2%. Generally, for the first six months of the year, PPI for agriculture, forestry, and fishery products increased by 4.23% over the same period in 2020; PPI for industry products increased by 1.82%; PPI for services increased by 0.89%.
The price index of materials, fuels used for production in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 1.58% compared to the previous quarter and by 4.96% over the same period last year. Generally, for the first six months of 2021, the price index of materials, fuels used for production increased by 4.79% over the same period last year, of which the price index of materials, fuels used for agriculture, forestry, and fishing increased by 6.83%; used for manufacturing increased by 4.97%; used for construction increased by 3.91%.
d) Merchandise import and export price index
In the second quarter of 2021, the merchandise export price index increased by 1.29% over the previous quarter and by 2.77% over the same period last year; the merchandise import price index increased by 1.3% and by 3.28%; merchandise term of trade[18] decreased by 0.01% and by 0.5%. Generally, in the first 6 months of this year, the merchandise export price index increased by 1.22% over the same period last year; the merchandise import price index of goods increased by 2.24%; the merchandise term of trade decreased by 0.99%.
II. SOCIAL SITUATION
1. The situation of labor and employment in the second quarter of 2021 was affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. However, in the first six months of 2021, the number of laborers working in the economy still increased compared to the same period last year, the unemployment rate in the working-age decreased and the income of salaried workers increased[19].
In the second quarter of 2021, the labor force aged 15 and over of the whole country was estimated at 51.1 million people, an increase of 44.7 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 1.7 million people compared to the same period last year; the employed population aged 15 years and over was estimated at 49.8 million people. Generally, in the first 6 months of the year, the labor force aged 15 and over was 51 million people, an increase of 737.7 thousand people compared to the same period in 2020; the labor force participation rate estimated at 68.6%, up 0.1 percentage point over the same period last year; employees population aged 15 years and over were 49.9 million people.
The unemployment rate nationwide in the first six months of the year estimated at 2.30% (2.40% in the second quarter), of which the urban unemployment rate was 3.07%; the rural area was 1.86%
The underemployment rate of laborers of working-age estimated at 2.58%, of which the underemployment rate in urban areas is 2.64%; the underemployment rate in rural areas was 2.54%
2. People’s life and social security work concerned by authorities at all levels, especially in the context of Covid-19; The program on building new rural areas in recent years has had a positive impact, contributing to improving people’s lives in rural areas, promoting the development of socio-economic infrastructure systems in rural areas.
In the first 6 months of 2021, the total value of money and gifts to support beneficiaries was 6,906 billion VND, of which, support for people with meritorious services and relatives was 2,540.9 billion VND, for people with meritorious services is VND 2,540.9 billion, for poor and near-poor households, was 1,354.7 billion VND; for hunger relief and social protection beneficiaries was 1,958.4 billion VND; for other subjects was 1,052 billion VND. There were more than 30 million social insurance cards/books/cards for free medical examination and treatment distributed to beneficiaries.
By the end of May 2021, the whole country had 5,282 communes and 191 districts meeting new rural standards; 335 communes meeting the new advanced rural standards and 32 communes meeting the model-new rural standards; 12 provinces have 100% of communes meeting new rural standards; 4 provinces (Nam Dinh, Dong Nai, Hung Yen, Ha Nam) have been recognized by the Prime Minister to complete the task of building new countryside.
3. The fourth Covid-19 epidemic broke out at the time when kindergartens, general education, and continuing education institutions were preparing to end the school year. Against that situation, localities have proactively and promptly directed to adjust the school year plan to both ensure the prevention and control of the Covid-19 epidemic and complete the 2020-2021 school year.
In the 2020-2021 school year, the whole country had 4.3 million children going to kindergarten, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous school year; 17.5 million pupils of the general school, an increase of 3.5%, including 8.9 million primary school pupils, an increase of 2%; 5.9 million lower secondary school pupils, a rise of 5.8% and 2.7 million of pupils in upper secondary schools, an increase of 3.8%. The national high school exam in 2020-2021 with more than 1 million candidates registered to take the exam, of which 3/4 candidates apply for university and college admission. The high school graduation exam will be held in 2 phases, the first phase will be on July 7-8, 2021, and the second phase will be for candidates who cannot take the first exam due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.
In the first 6 months of 2021, vocational training establishments nationwide have recruited 645 thousand people, reaching 27.2% of the year plan, of which colleges and vocational secondary schools have recruited 45 thousand people, reaching 7.5%; Vocational primary education and other vocational training programs enrolled 600,000 people, reaching 34% of the year plan.
4. The epidemic of Covid-19 in the world continues to be complicated. In Vietnam, the Covid-19 epidemic is continuing to be controlled, but locally in some localities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Binh Duong, which are complicated and difficult to predict, and in some provinces, there is a high risk of a flare-up again.
Generally, in the first 6 months of 2021, there were 29,746 cases of hemorrhagic fever (5 cases died); 36,593 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (11 cases died); 302 cases of virus encephalitis (5 cases died); 13 cases of meningococcal disease (2 cases died) and 309 cases of scarlet fever suspected for measles, of which 39 were positive for measles.
The epidemic of Covid-19 in the world continues to be complicated[20]. In Vietnam, As of noon on June 28, 2021, Vietnam has 15,643 cases have been reported, 6,319 cases have been cured (76 deaths).
The total number of people living with HIV nationwide as of June 18, 2021, was 212,422 persons; 90,160 cases turned to AIDS and the number of deaths by HIV/AIDS as of the above time-point was 104,016 persons.
In June 2021, there were 8 cases of food poisoning with 100 persons poisoned (1 case died). Generally in the first 6 months of 2021, there were 42 cases of food poisoning with 902 people poisoned (5 deaths).
5. Conservation and promotion of cultural values are always concerned; Movement sports are maintained, high-performance sports have made remarkable progress.
The protection and promotion of the value of tangible and intangible cultural heritage are always concerned and invested by localities, in order to promote heritage values and create unique tourism products. The mass sports movement continued to be promoted in association with the movement “All people exercise their body following the great Uncle Ho’s example”.
Vietnam’s high-performance sports in the first 6 months of 2021 achieved some impressive results: The Vietnamese men’s football team has completed the historic goal of reaching the ticket to the third qualifying round of the World Cup 2022; Vietnam Taekwondo team attended the Asian Taekwondo Championships taking place from June 16-18, 2021 in Lebanon, excellently winning 1 gold and 1 silver medal.
6. Traffic accidents[21] in June 2021 decreased on all three criteria in terms of the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number of injured compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Generally, in the first six months of the year, traffic accidents decreased in the number of cases and deaths compared to the same period in 2020.
In June (from May 15 to June 14, 2021), there were 825 traffic accidents across the country, including 539 traffic accidents from less serious and above and 286 traffic collisions, causing 436 deaths, 253 injuries and 275 minor injuries. Compared with the previous month, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 14.2% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious and above decreased by 13.9% and the number of traffic collisions decreased by 14.9%); the number of deaths decreased by 11.2%, the number of injured people decreased by 20.4% and the number of minor injuries decreased by 23%. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in June decreased by 27.3% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious and above decreased by 14.7% and the number of traffic collisions decreased by 43.1%); the number of deaths decreased by 10.8%; the number of injured people decreased by 26.5% and the number of minor injuries decreased by 47.8%.
Generally, in the first 6 months of 2021, there were 6,007 traffic accidents in the whole country, including 3,887 traffic accidents from less serious and above and 2,120 traffic collisions, causing 3,092 deaths, 2,032 injured and 2,284 minor injuries. Compared with the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents in the first 6 months of this year decreased by 11.5% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious and above increased by 0.6%; the number of traffic collisions decreased by 27.5%); the number of deaths decreased by 4.6%; the number of injured people increased by 5.2% and the number of minor injuries decreased by 24.1%. On average, 1 day in the first 6 months of 2021, there were 33 traffic accidents nationwide, including 21 traffic accidents from less serious and above and 12 traffic collisions, killing 17 people, 11 people were injured and 13 people were slightly injured.
7. Natural disasters, environmental pollution and fires and explosions significantly affect the lives of people in some localities.
Generally, in the first 6 months of this year, natural disasters made 34 people dead and missing, 51 people were injured; 6.6 thousand cattle and poultry died; 47.5 thousand hectares of rice and 12.4 thousand hectares of crops were damaged; 238 houses collapsed, swept away and 7.7 thousand houses were flooded and damaged; total value of property damage was estimated at 508.7 billion VND, down 89.3% over the same period last year.
Also, in the first 6 months of this year, there were 1,157 fires and explosions in the whole country, killing 56 people and injuring 84 people, with estimated damage of 287 billion VND./.
[1] The World Bank (Global Economic Outlook Report released on June 8, 2021) and the European Union (European Economic Forecast Report Spring 2021, May 2021) forecast growth in the global economy will reach 5.6% in 2021. The International Monetary Fund believes that the global economy, after negative growth of 3.5% in 2020, is expected to grow by 6% in 2021 (World Economic Outlook Report, released April 2021). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts global GDP to grow by 5.8% in 2021 (OECD Economic Outlook Report, May 31, 2021). The private financial-economic organization Fitch Ratings forecasts that global GDP in 2021 will increase by 6.3%, higher than the forecast of 6.1% made in March 2021 (Global Economic Outlook Report May 2021).
[2] The US deployed a relief package worth 1.9 trillion USD to reduce the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, stimulating the economy. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25% and maintained a bond-buying program of at least 120 billion USD per month to support the US economic recovery process. The FED forecasts that the total inflation in 2021 will reach 3.4%, 1% higher than the forecast in March 2021.
[3] The WTO forecasts that global trade will grow by 8.3% this year and 6.3% in 2022 (Measure of Trade in Goods, May 28, 2021).
[4] The added value of the industry in the second quarter of 2020 only increased by 1.1%.
[5] Source: National Enterprise Registration Information System, Business Registration Management Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment (Received the report on 25th June 2021)
[6] Compared to the same period last year, the number of enterprises decreased by 17.6%; the registered capital up 18.1%; the number of employees decreased by 28.2%.
[7] Corresponding index of the first quarter of 2021: 29.6% of enterprises rated their business and production situation better joint; 39% of enterprises said that the business and production situation was stable and 31.4% of enterprises rated that it was difficult compared to the previous quarter.
[8] In April 2020, the whole country implemented social distancing, which reduced shopping activities and consumer spending, so retail sales of goods in the first 6 months of 2020 were low.
[9] Securities data according to Official Letter 3151/UBCK-CNTT dated May 25, 2021 of the State Securities Commission.
[10] As of 10 am on June 24, 2021, the VNIndex reached 1,380.2 points, up by 3.9% compared to the end of last month and up by 25% compared to the end of 2020.
[11] Vietnam’s investment capital abroad for projects granted new investment certificates in the first 6 months decreased compared to the same period last year after increasing sharply in the previous months due to a project of Tungsten Co., Ltd. Masan (Germany) was granted a State Investment Certificate with a total capital of 91.5 million USD.
[12] Adjusted investment capital increased sharply due to the adjustment of Vingroup’s project in the US by 300 million USD; Indochina Rubber Development and Investment Co., Ltd. project in Cambodia increased by 76 million USD, and 01 project of Vinfast in Germany increased by 32 million USD.
[13] Total export and import turnover in the first six months of 2020 reached 239.67 billion USD, went down 1.5% over the same period last year, of which exports reached 122.77 billion USD, increased by 0.2%; import reached 116.9 billion USD, went down 3.3%.
[14] Data in June 2021 meeting by an interdisciplinary team consisting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the State Bank of Viet Nam, the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office meeting estimates based on export turnover figures, import as of June 27, 2021 of the General Department of Customs combined with market information, the proportion and trend of export and import of goods. The General Statistics Office received and updated the report on the afternoon of June 28, 2021.
[15] The trade deficit in May 2021 was estimated at 2 billion USD.
[16] In which, in the first six months of 2021, the trade surplus to the EU reached 11.2 billion USD, rose by 18.2% over the same period last year; trade deficit from China was 29 billion USD, went up 90.3%; trade deficit from South Korea was 14.7 billion USD, going up 26.2%; trade deficit from ASEAN was 7.1 billion USD, increased by 122.2%.
[17] The average CPI growth rate in the first 6 months of the year compared to the same period last year in 2016-2021: 1.72%; 4.15%; 3.29%; 2.64%; 4.19%; 1.47% respectively.
[18] Merchandise export price index/ Merchandise import price index.
[19] The employed population at 15 years of age and over in the first 6 months of 2021, an increase of 788.7 thousand people compared to the same period last year; the unemployment rate in working-age decreased by 0.07 percentage points; income of salaried workers increased by 281.7 thousand VND.
[20] As of noon on June 28, 2021, in the world, there were 181,866 thousand cases of Covid-19 (3,938.9 thousand deaths)
[21] According to a quick report from the Ministry of Public Security on June 23, 2021.