Continuing the recovery and positive growth from the fourth quarter of 2020, our country’s macroeconomic in the first quarter of 2021 continued to remain stable, the weather in the first months of the year was relatively favorable, and African swine fever which is well controlled, is a favorable condition for production and business. However, the outbreak of Covid-19 in some localities at the end of January posed many challenges in the management, direction and administration of economic development and ensuring social security, requiring with efforts and consensus of the Government, the entire people and the business community to overcome all difficulties and challenges to achieve the growth target of 2021.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2021 is estimated to increase by 4.48% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of 3.68% in the first quarter of 2020, showing the adaptability and resistance to and the trend of economic recovery is increasing. The highlights in the first quarter socio-economic picture are as follows:
- In the agricultural sector, rice yield and perennial crop yield were fairly good; Pigs continue to recover. Forestry production has developed, and the export market for timber and forest products has been expanded. The fisheries sector is more positive than the same period last year, the price of pangasius and commercial shrimp tends to increase.
- Industry achieved a decent growth of 6.5%, of which the manufacturing increased by 9.45% and was the largest contributor to the overall growth of the whole economy with 2.37 points. percent. The increase in the manufacturing industry was approaching a 2-digit increase compared to the time before the Covid-19 epidemic, indicating a strong recovery of the industry.
- In service activities, total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first quarter increased by 5.1% over the same period last year, showing that consumer demand of people has increased again; export and import activities strongly recovered, the balance of trade in goods in the first quarter of 2021 was estimated to have an export surplus of 2.03 billion USD; There are 11 items with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 76.6% of the total export turnover. Export of some industrial products of processing and manufacturing increased significantly compared to the same period last year: Chemical products increased by 35%; plastic and fiber products, textile fibers of all kinds increased by 31%; wood and wood products by 41.5%; electronics, computers and components by 31.3%; iron and steel by 65.2% …
- It is noteworthy that the number of newly registered enterprises in the first quarter decreased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year, but the total registered capital increased by 27.5% due to an increase in the number of enterprises with more than 100 registered capital. VND billion and reduce the number of enterprises with registered capital of less than 10 billion VND.
- Realized FDI capital in the first quarter of 2021 is estimated to increase by 6.5% over the same period last year. Some localities continue to attract high-tech projects, typically LNG Long An I and II Power Plant Project with total registered capital of over 3.1 billion USD; The Hai Phong LG Display project adjusted to increase investment capital by 750 million USD … This is the result of the successful disease prevention and control process as well as a reflection of strong beliefs and expectations of investors. foreign countries into our country’s economic prospects.
- The average consumer price index in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 0.29%, the lowest increase in the past 20 years. Credit demand of the economy increased; the insurance market maintained a steady growth rate; The stock market grew well with the total mobilization of capital for the economy in the first quarter of 2021 increasing 42% over the same period last year.
- The national unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2021 was estimated to be 2.19%; Average monthly income of wage workers in the first quarter of 2021 was 7.2 million dongs/month, an increase of 557 thousand dong against the previous quarter and 133 thousand dong over the same period last year. Residential life and social security were guaranteed; The epidemic has been strictly controlled and prevented in localities. The Government has timely supported the hunger relief for the people, not arising hunger on the national scale.
In addition to the results achieved, the economy in the first quarter still has the following points to note:
- The Covid-19 pandemic continued to be complicated. Domestically, there still appear a few cases of Covid-19 infection in the community (on 25/3/2021 Hai Phong recorded 2 cases of Covid-19 in the community). Globally, the Covid-19 epidemic has not been controlled, although vaccines to prevent epidemics have been deployed, there are still many problems and new variations, making it difficult for epidemic prevention and control.
- Economic growth was positive but did not reach the growth rate of the same period of the years before the Covid-19 epidemic, a number of industries continued to face many difficulties due to the impact of the epidemic. The added value of the transport and warehousing industry decreased by 2.17% over the same period last year; accommodation service industry down 4.49%; arts, entertainment and entertainment by 4.02%. The aviation and tourism industries continue to be seriously affected by the world’s uncontrolled epidemics.
- Industrial production activities have not recovered as quickly as before the Covid-19 epidemic occurred because some industries depend on raw materials imported from countries around the world which are currently not under disease control.
- Business registration shows the persistent effects of the disease situation. The number of newly established enterprises in the first quarter decreased by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2020, the first year that recorded a decrease in the number of newly established enterprises in the first quarter of the period 2017-2021 (2017 an increase of 11.4%; an increase of 1.2% in 2018; a rise of 6.2% in 2019; a rise of 4.4% in 2020; a decrease of 1.4% in 2021). Enterprises suspending their business for a definite time, suspending operations, waiting for dissolution procedures and completing dissolution procedures, increased by 15.6% over the same period in 2020.
- The export market cannot recover immediately because the major economies in the world cannot control the Covid-19 translation. Domestic export still depends on the foreign direct investment sector when its export turnover (including crude oil) in the first quarter increased by 28.5% over the same period last year.
To overcome the remaining difficulties of the economy and achieve the growth target of 2021, a number of solutions are given as follows:
- In the immediate future, it is necessary to control Covid-19 pandemic well, quickly deploy Covid-19 vaccination on a large scale in order to control epidemics and stabilize economic development;
- Continue to maintain the growth momentum of the agricultural sector by promoting the re-herd of pigs, shifting the structure of livestock herds in the direction of increasing the proportion of large poultry and cattle; intensifying the direction of production of climate change adaptive crops; restructuring plants and animals to suit soil and market;
- Promote the association of production with product processing and consumption, application of science and technology, especially technology for post-harvest preservation and processing of agricultural products. To focus on directing the development of deep processing industries, processing key agricultural and aquatic products; supporting industries, consumer goods production, and at the same time applying international standards in the production and processing to achieve high added value;
- Take advantage of new-generation free trade agreements, especially CPTPP, EVFTA and RCEPT agreements to promote import and export activities, improve opportunities for competition and enhance the value of goods. exports, especially advantageous Vietnamese products;
- Continue to focus on solving difficulties for production and business enterprises, implementing solutions that enterprises can quickly and effectively access support packages.