THE WORLD AND DOMESTIC ECONOMY
The socio-economic in 2020 of our country took place in the context of an epidemic of acute respiratory infections due to a strong outbreak of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and unpredictable changes on a global scale, which has seriously affected all socio-economic aspects of the countries in the world. Major economies faced the deepest recession and the worst in the past decades. However, in the last months of this year, most economies restarted after a blockade due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the world economic growth forecasted to show more positive signs. Global trade, commodity prices have been gradually recovering, global stock markets surged in November and December due to positive signals from the production and effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccine. Although big economies such as the US, China, Japan, and the European Union still faced many difficulties, they tended to recover in the last months of 2020 and are forecasted better growth in the year 2021. Domestically, besides the advantages of positive growth results in 2019, the macroeconomy was stable but faced many difficulties and challenges. The Covid-19 epidemic was complicated and unpredictable; causing growth in almost all branches and fields to slow down. International trade disruptions caused consequences to the production, export, and import activities of Vietnam. Unemployment and underemployment rates were high. Besides, drought, saline intrusion, rain, and flood have affected productivity, crop yields and people’s lives.
Facing this situation, the Government, the Prime Minister promptly directed ministries, branches, and localities to synchronously and effectively implement Solutions to both prevent epidemics, ensure people’s health, at the same time prevent economic decline, maintain social stability, make the best effort to achieve socio-economic development goals and tasks in 2020. As a result, the socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter and the whole year 2020 continued to have positive changes, achieving many remarkable results as follows:
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 was estimated to increase by 2.91% over the last year, although being the lowest increase of the period 2011-2020 but in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, negatively affecting all socio-economic fields, this is a great success for Vietnam with the growth rate in 2020 among the highest in the world.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 was estimated to increase by 4.48% over the same period last year, the lowest increase of the fourth quarter of each year in the period 2011-2020. The Covid-19 pandemic was strictly controlled, the economy gradually returned to new normal condition, the EU and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, which took effect from August 1st, 2020, created a driving force for the economy, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 grew prosperously compared to the third quarter of 2020, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 4.69% over the same period last year; industry and construction increased by 5.60%; service sector rose by 4.29%; Product tax minus product subsidies rose by 1.07%. Regarding the use of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, the final consumption increased by 1.48% over the same period last year; asset accumulation increased by 5.29%; exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services rose by 15.25% and 14.83%, accordingly.
GDP in 2020 increased by 2.91% (in the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quater increased by 3.68%; 0.39%; 2.69%; 4.48% respectively), although being the lowest increase of the period 2011-2020, but in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic happened complicatedly, negatively affecting all socio-economic fields, this is a great success for Vietnam with the growth rate in 2020 among the highest in the world.
It suggests that the precision in the direction and administration to recover the economy, prevent disease and the strive, agreement of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister, efforts of people and the business community to effectively achieve the goal of “both preventing pandemics and developing socio-economic”. In the general growth rate of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.68%, contributed 13.5% to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy; industry and construction increased by 3.98%, contributed 53%; the service sector increased by 2.34%, contributed 33.5%.
In the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector, due to the production of several perennial crops, major livestock products, and shrimp in 2020 increased fairly, so that the growth rate of this area is higher in 2019. Of which, the agricultural sector increased by 2.55%, only lower than the growth rate of 2011, 2012 and 2018 in the period 2011-2020, contributed 0.29 percentage points to the growth rate of the total value-added of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 2.82% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.02 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 3.08%, higher than 2.80% in 2015 and 2016 for the period 2011-2020, contributed 0.1 percentage points.
In the industry and construction sector, the industry in 2020 increased by 3.36% over the previous year, contributed 1.12 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy. Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry played a key role in driving the growth of the economy with an increase of 5.82%, contributed 1.25 percentage points; electricity production and distribution increased by 3.92%, contributed 0.19 percentage points; water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment rose by 5.51% and contributed 0.04 percentage points; mining decreased by 5.62% (due to a decrease of 12.6% in crude oil production and an 11.5% decrease in natural gas), causing a reduction of 0.36 percentage points in the overall growth rate. The construction industry increased by 6.76%, higher than the growth rate of 2011, 2012, and 2013 in the period 2011-2020, contributed 0.5 percentage points.
The Covid-19 pandemic evolved too complicated, seriously affecting commercial and service activities. The service sector in 2020 reached the lowest growth rate of the period 2011-2020. Contribution of some market service to the growth rate of total added value in 2020 was as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 5.53% over the previous year, contributed 0.61 points percent; finance, banking, and insurance increased by 6.87%, contributed 0.46 percentage points; transportation and warehousing down 1.88%, caused a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the accommodation and catering services sector down 14.68%, caused a decrease of 0.62 percentage points.
Regarding the economic structure in 2020, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector accounted for 14.85%; industry and construction accounted for 33.72%; the service sector accounted for 41.63%; Product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.8% (The corresponding structure in 2019 was: 13.96%; 34.49%; 41.64%; 9.91%).
Regarding the use of GDP in 2020, final consumption, asset accumulation, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services respectively rose by 1.06%; 4.12%; 4.97%; 3.33%.
Regarding the quality of economy growth rate, labor productivity of the whole economy at current prices in 2020 was estimated at 117.9 million VND/employee (equivalent to 5,081 USD/employee, an increase of 290 USD compared to 2019); at constant prices, labor productivity increased by 5.4% due to an increase in qualifications of workers (the rate of trained workers with diplomas and certificates in 2020 is 24.1%, higher than that of 22.8% in 2019). Incremental output ratio (ICOR coefficient) decreased from 6.42 in 2016 to 6.11 in 2017; 5.98 in 2018 and 6.08 in 2019. In the period 2016-2019, the ICOR coefficient reached 6.13, lower than the coefficient of 6.25 of the period 2011-2015. Particularly in 2020, due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, production and business activities of the economy were stalled, the projects completed and put into use could not be fully utilized, so ICOR in 2020 is 14.28; on average, in the period 2016-2020, ICOR is 7.04.
2. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in 2020 faced many difficulties due to drought, salinity, flooding; the Covid-19 epidemic of the world has complicated developments, affecting export-import activities and agricultural product consumption. Facing these difficulties, the Agriculture sector has had many timely and effective response solutions, so the production results were fair, the paddy crops were harvested, and the prices were quite well; the production of perennial plants had a good growth rate; poultry husbandry is well developed; the pigs are gradually recovering. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector has played a supporting role in the economy in difficult times, ensuring the supply of food, essential goods, is the important base to implement welfare and security during the pandemic.
Rice area in 2020 was estimated at 7.28 million ha, a decrease of 192 thousand ha over the previous year due to the conversion of production structure and land use purposes; rice yield was estimated at 58.7 quintal/ha, rose by 0.5 quintals/ha; rice production was estimated at 42.69 million tons, down 806.6 thousand tons due to the rice area decreasing.
The country’s winter-spring rice cultivated area reached 3,024.1 thousand hectares, a decrease of 100.3 thousand hectares, compared to the winter-spring crop of 2019, the yield reached 65.7 quintals/hectare, increasing 0.2 quintal/hectare, production reached 19.9 million tons, a drop of 593.5 thousand tons.
This year, the country cultivated 1,945.1 thousand hectares of summer-autumn paddy, a decrease of 64.5 thousand hectares compared to the previous year, yield reached 55.2 quintals/hectare, an increase of 0.7 quintals/hectare, the total production reached 10.74 million tons, a drop of 205.4 thousand tons.
The summer-autumn crop cultivated area was estimated at 724 thousand hectares of autumn-winter paddy, a decrease of 0.2 thousand hectares in comparison with last year, yield of the crop was estimated at 55.1quintal/hectare, an increase of 0.2 quintals/ha; production was estimated at 3.99 million tons, an increase of 15.1 thousand tons.
The whole country’s winter rice cultivated area reached 1,584.6 thousand hectares, a decrease of 27 thousand hectares compared to the crop in 2019; yield reached 51 quintal/ha, increased by 0.7 quintal/ha; production reached 8.08 million tons, down 20.7 thousand tons.
Results of production of crops and some annual crops: maize output reached 4.59 million tons, a decrease of 140.3 thousand tons compared to 2019 due to a decrease in cultivated area of 43 thousand hectares; sweet potato reached 1.37 million tons, down 57.5 thousand tons (the area decreased by 7.8 thousand hectares); sugarcane reached 11.88 million tons, down 3.44 million tons (the area decreased by 45.3 thousand hectares); cassava reached 10.49 million tons, an increase of 313 thousand tons (the area increased by 4.8 thousand hectares); groundnut reached 425.5 thousand tons, down 17.1 thousand tons (the area decreased by 7.3 thousand ha); soybean reached 65.7 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons (the area decreased by 7.8 thousand hectares); the output of vegetables of all kinds reached 18.33 million tons, an increase of 339.1 thousand tons (the area increased by 7.8 thousand hectares).
Industrial plants area reached 2,179.9 thousand hectares, decreasing by 0.6% compared to 2019, of which rubber area reached 926 thousand hectares, down 1.7% over the previous year, output reached 1,221.6 thousand tons, up 3.3%; pepper area reached 131.8 thousand hectares, down 6%, output reached 268.5 thousand tons, up 1.4%; coffee area reached 695.5 thousand hectares, up 0.8%, production reached 1,742.8 thousand tons, up 3.3%; cashew area reached 302.4 thousand hectares, up 1.9%, production reached 339.7 thousand tons, up 18.8%; tea area reached 124 thousand hectares, up 0.6%, tea output reached 1,043.4 thousand tons, up 2.5%. Production of some major fruit this year was recorded to increase, in comparison with that of last year: oranges reached 1,070.6 thousand tons, rising by 8%; pomelos reached 903.2 thousand tons, rising by 10.2%; mango reached 893.2 thousand tons, rising by 6.5%; dragon fruit reached 1,363.8 thousand tons, rising by 9.1%; litchi reached 311.2 thousand tons, rising by 15.6%; longan reached 589.2 thousand tons, rising by 11.6%; pineapple reached 723.7 thousand tons, rising by 2.2%.
In December buffalo population was estimated to decrease by 2.2% compared with that of the same period last year; cattle population increased by 2.5%; pig population increased by 17%; the total poultry population in increased by 6%. It was estimated in 2020, production of buffalo living weight reached 95.8 thousand tons, rising by 1.4%; production of cattle living weight reached 371.5 thousand tons, rising by 4.6%; production of pig living weight was estimated at 3,484.9 tons, rising by 4.4%; production of poultry living weight in 2020 was estimated at 1,453.7 thousand tons, rising by 11.6%; production of poultry eggs reached 14.7 billion eggs, rising by 10.5%; cow milk production reached 1,086.3 thousand tons, rising by 10.2%.
In 2020, the concentrated forests area was estimated at 260.5 thousand hectares, decreased by 3.2% of over the same period last year (In the fourth quarter was estimated at 91 thousand hectares, falling by 4.2% compared to the same period last year); number of dispersed trees reached 94.6 million trees, falling by 1.6% (in the fourth quarter reached 28.1million trees, falling by 2.1%); production of wood reached 16.9 million m3, up 3.7% (in the fourth quarter reached 4,800 thousand m3, rising by 7.3%). Firewood production reached 18.9 million ste, falling by 1% (in the fourth quarter reached 4.5 million ste, falling by 4.3%). The devastated forest area was 1,464.3 hectares, decreasing by 45.6% of over the same last year, of which the fired forest area, was 645.3 hectares, falling by 67.8%; area of cut and destroyed forest was 819 hectares, rising by 19.4%.
Overall 2020, total fisheries production was estimated at 8,423.1 thousand tons, up 1.8% from the previous year (in the fourth quarter of 2020, it was estimated at 2,286.6 thousand tons, rising by 2.2%) of which fish was 6,070.7 thousand tons, up 1.2%; shrimp reached 1,108.8 thousand tons, up 4.9%; other aquatic products reached 1,243.6 thousand tons, up 2.5%.
Aquaculture production this year was estimated at 4,559.2 thousand tons, up 1.5% from the previous year (in the fourth quarter, it was estimated at 1,343.1 thousand tons, rising by 1.8%), including fish with 3,130.8 thousand tons, down 0.3%; shrimp reached 949.9 thousand tons, up 5.6%; other aquatic products reached 478.5 thousand tons, up 5.4%.
Catching production in 2020 was estimated at 3,863.9 thousand tons, up 2.3% over the previous year (in the fourth quarter, it was 943.5 thousand tons, up 2.8%), of which fish production reached 2,939.9 thousand tons, up 2.7%; shrimp reached 158.9 thousand tons, up 0.8%.
3. The Covid-19 pandemic was well controlled in the country, the EU and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) has been implemented, so industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2020 has prospered with an increase in value added by 4.8% over the same period last year. For the whole year 2020, the added value of the industry increased by 3.36% compared to 2019, of which the manufacturing increased by 5.82%, playing a key role in leading the overall growth of industry and the whole economy.
The added value of the whole industry in 2020 was estimated to increase by 3.36% over the previous year (increased by 5.1% in the first quarter; by 1.1% in the second quarter; by 2.34% in the third quarter; in the fourth quarter by 4.80%). Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 5.82%; electricity production and distribution increased 3.92%; water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment rose by 5.51%; the mining sector decreased by 5.62% due to the decrease in crude oil production and natural gas.
The index of industrial shipment in 2020 increased by 3.3% over the last year; the Inventory index of the manufacturing as of December 30, 2020 increased by 25.3% over the same period last year (rising by 13.6% in the same period in 2019). The average index of industrial inventory of manufacturing in 2020 was at 71.9% (68.8% in 2019).
4. With the determination and efforts of the Government and the business community in the face of the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the business registration situation in 2020 had remarkable results. In 2020, the whole country had 134.9 thousand newly established enterprises, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last year but the average registered capital of an enterprise reached 16.6 billion VND, an increase of 32.3%. Results on the business tendency survey of the manufacturing enterprises showed that enterprises continue to be optimistic about the business production situation in the first quarter of 2021and 81% of enterprises suppose the situation would be more stable and better.
a) Enterprise registration status
In December 2020, the whole country had nearly 10.7 thousand newly established enterprises with a registered capital of 356.8 trillion VND, and a total number of registered employees of 73 thousand employees, a decrease of 18.4% in the number of enterprises, an increase of 25.3% in the registered capital, and a decrease of 39% in the number of employees compared to last month. Generally, in 2020, the whole country had 134.9 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 2,235.6 trillion VND and the total number of registered employees of 1,043 thousand employees, a fall of 2.3% in the number of enterprises, an increase of 29.2% in number the registered capital and a decrease of 16.9% in the number of employees compared to last year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 2020 achieved 16.6 billion VND, climbing up 32.3% compared to 2019. If including 3,341.9 trillion VND of the additionally registered capital of 39.5 thousand enterprises that recorded an upward adjustment of capital, the total additional registered capital in the economy of this year was nearly 5,577.6 trillion VND, rose by 39.3% compared to last year. Besides, there were 44.1 thousand re-operated enterprises, an increase of 11.9% over 2019, bringing the total number of newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises in 2020 up 179 thousand enterprises, rose by 0.8% compared to last year. Average each month, 14.9 thousand newly established enterprises and re-operated enterprises.
In 2020, there was 101.7 thousand enterprises ceased for a certain period of time, temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, completed dissolution procedures, increasing by 13.9% over the previous year, of which: The number of enterprises ceased for a certain period of time was 46.6 thousand enterprises, increasing by 62.2% compared to 2019; nearly 37,7 thousand enterprises temporarily ceased and awaited dissolution procedures, a decline of 13.8%; nearly 17,5 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 3.7%. Average each month, there was nearly 8.5 thousand enterprises withdrawing from the market.
b) Business trends of the enterprises
The Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2020 showed that: 40.6% of enterprises assessed the business production situation in the fourth quarter of this year was better than the previous quarter; 24.7% of enterprises assessed that facing difficulties and 34.7% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable. For the expected outcome of the first quarter in 2021, 42.8% of enterprises presented that the tendency would be better; 19% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficult and 38.2% of enterprises said that the business production situation would be stable.
5. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic happened complicatedly in the world but still well controlled domestically, so the trade and consumer service activities still reached a high increase in the last months of the year. However, transport activities still faced many difficulties, especially overseas transportation. The number of international visitors to Vietnam this year was only 3.8 million arrivals, down 78.7% from the previous year, of which more than 96% were international visitors in the first quarter of 2020.
Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services reached 5,059.8 trillion VND in 2020, rising by 2.6% over the previous year, if excluding the price factor, the decrease was 1.2% (in 2019 increased by 9.5%), of which the fourth quarter, gross retail sales of consumer goods and services were estimated to reach 1,387.6 trillion VND, going up by 6.4% over that in the previous quarter and up 8% over that in the same period last year. By economic activities, retail sales of goods in 2020 reached 3,996.9 trillion VND, accounting for 79% of the total and expanding 6.8% over the previous year; accommodation and catering services estimated at 510.4 trillion VND, accounting for 10.1% of the total and decreased by 13%; tourism and traveling services was estimated at 17.9 trillion VND, accounting for 0.3% of the total and decreased by 59.5%; other services was estimated at 534.6 trillion VND, accounting for 10.6% of the total and decreased by 4%.
Generally for the whole year 2020, passengers carried reached 3,561.9 million passengers, a decrease of 29.6% over the same period last year and passengers traffic gained 163 billion passengers-km, a decline of 34.1% (passengers carriage in the fourth quarter reached 913.3 million persons, decreased by 31.2% and 43.4 billion passengers-km, reduced by 31.5% compared to the same period last year). Generally for the whole year of 2020, freight carried reached 1,774.6 million tons, reduced by 5.2% against the similar period last year and freight traffic gained 339.4 billion tons-km, went down by 6.7% (the fourth quarter of this year was estimated at 508.7 million tons, increased by 0.7% compared to the same period last year, and 95.8 billion tons. km, reduced by 3.7%).
Generally, for the whole year 2020, telecommunications revenue was estimated to reach 381 trillion VND, a decrease of 0.6% compared to last year (if excluding the price factor, the increase was 4.1%). The total number of telephone subscribers by the end of December 2020 was estimated at 134.6 million subscribers, an increase of 3.7% compared to the same period last year, of which mobile phone subscribers reached 131.4 million subscribers, rising by 4.2%, mainly due to the number of subscribers decreased sharply when the network operators removed “trash” sims according to the regulation of the Ministry of Information and Communication. The number of fixed broadband internet subscribers by the end of December 2020 recorded 16.6 million subscribers,up 12.3% compared to the same period last year.
Generally, for the whole year, international visitors to Viet Nam were estimated at 3,837.3 thousand arrivals, moving down by 78.7% compared to the last year, of which visitors coming by airway gained 3,083.2 thousand arrivals, accounting for 80.3% of the number of international visitors to Viet Nam, dropping by 78.6%; by roadway achieved 609.4 thousand arrivals, accounting for 15.9% and going down by 81.9%; by seaway achieved 144.7 thousand arrivals, accounting for 3.8% and decreasing by 45.2%. International visitors to Viet Nam from Asia recorded 2,813.6 thousand arrivals, accounting for 73.3% of the total, decreasing by 80.4% over the last year. Visitors from Europe in this year reached 671.9 thousand arrivals, down 69% compared to the last year. Visitors from America gained 236.5 thousand arrivals, down 75.7%. Visitors from Africa reached 12.5 thousand arrivals, reducing by 73.9% against the previous year.
6. In 2020, the State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the operating rate to create conditions for the economy to recover quickly from effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Insurance business has been developed stably and safely in the context of complicated pandemic; capital mobilization for the economy of the stock market increased by about 20% over the previous year.
As of December 21st, 2020, the total liquidity increased by 12.56% compared to the end of 2019 (at the same time in 2019 was 12.1%); capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 12.87% (at the same time in 2019 was 12.48%); credit growth of the economy reached 10.14% (at the same time in 2019 was 12.14%).
It is estimated that the whole year 2020 premium revenue of the whole insurance market will increase by 17% over the previous year, of which life insurance premium revenue increased by 21%; non-life insurance increased by 7% (in the fourth quarter of 2020 was estimated to increase by 16% over the same period last year, of which insurance premium revenue in the life sector increased by 20%, the non-life insurance sector increased by 7%).
The stock market has many contributions in raising capital for the economy. As of December 17, 2020, the total capital mobilization of the stock market reached VND 383.6 trillion, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. In the stock market, as of December 24, 2020, the VNIndex reached 1,067.52 points, up 11.1% from the end of 2019; market capitalization reached nearly 5 million billion dongs, up 14%; the average transaction value from the beginning of 2020 until now reached VND 7,056 billion/session, up 51.5% compared to the average of 2019. In the bond market, there are 481 listed bond codes with a listed value of nearly 1,350 trillion dongs, up 13.5% compared to the end of 2019. In the derivatives market, the average trading volume of futures contracts on VN30 index from the beginning of this year to 17/12 reached 157.314 contracts per session, an increase by 77% over the average transactions of 2019.
7. The realized investment in 2020 increased by 5.7% compared to 2019, the lowest increase in the period 2011-2020 due to the negative impact of Covid-19 epidemic on all activity. However, the growth of realized investment capital under the State budget in2020 reached the highest increase in the period 2011 – 2020, which is the result of accelerated implementation and disbursement of public investment, in order to maintain economic growth in the context of the well-controlled Covid-19 epidemic in Viet Nam.
Generally in 2020, the realized social investment capital at current prices was estimated at 2,164.5 trillion VND, increasing by 5.7% over the last year and equaling 34.4% of GDP (in the 4th quarter of 2020 was estimated at 719.6 trillion VND, a growth of 7.5% over the same period last year), of which: the investment capital of the state sector reached 729 trillion VND, accounting for 33.7% of the total capital and increasing by 14.5% compared to last year; the non-state sector gained 972.2 trillion VND, accounting for 44.9% and rising by 3.1%; the foreign direct investment recorded 463.3 trillion VND, accounting for 21.4% and decreasing by 1.3%.
The foreign direct investment capital from the beginning of the year to 20th December 2020 including newly registered capital, adjust registered capital and the total value of capital contribution and share purchases reached 28.5 billion USD, a decrease of 25% compared to 2019. Of which, 2,523 newly licensed projects with a registered capital of 14.6 billion USD, a decrease of 35% in the number of projects and a decrease of 12.5% in registered capital compared to the same period in 2019; 1,140 turns of projects which were licensed in the previous year’s registered to adjust investment capital with the additional capital of 6.4 billion USD, a growth of 10.6% over the last year; 6,141 turns of capital contribution and share purchases of foreign investors with a total value of capital contribution of 7.5 billion USD, a drop of 51.7% over the same period in 2019. In the number of turns of capital contribution and share purchases of foreign investors, there were 1.695 turns of capital contribution capital and share purchase increased charter capital of the enterprise with the value of contributed capital of 3.2 billion USD and 4.446 turns of foreign investors repurchased domestic shares without increasing the charter capital with a value of 4.3 billion USD. Foreign direct investment capital in 2020 reached 20 billion USD, a drop of 2% over last year.
8. The Covid-19 pandemic was strictly controlled, all sectors of the economy have been gradually improved, so the State budget revenue in the first 15 days of December 2020 increased by more than 9.2 trillion dongs over the same period last month. State budget expenditures to promptly and fully meet tasks of spending on socio-economic development, national defense and security, State management and payment of due debts …, especially supporting people facing difficulties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, overcoming consequences of natural disasters and floods.
The State budget revenue from January to December 15th, 2020 was estimated at 1,307.4 trillion dongs, equal to 86.5% of the annual plan, of which domestic revenue reached 1,101.6 trillion dongs, equal to 87.1%; crude oil revenue was 32.7 trillion dongs, equal to 92.9%; budget balance revenue from import and export activity was 172.3 trillion dongs, equal to 82.8%.
The State budget expenditure from January to December 15th, 2020 was estimated at 1,432.5 trillion VND, equal to 82% of the annual plan, of which current expenditure was 966.7 trillion VND, equal to 91.5%; investment and development expenditure was 356 trillion dongs, equal to 75.7%; interest payment witnessed 98.8 trillion VND, equal to 83.6%.
9. The year 2020 recorded strong efforts of import and export activities in the context of domestic as well as the world economy negatively affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and the global trade disruption. Total import and export turnover of goods in 2020 was estimated at 543.9 billion USD, increased by 5.1% over the last year. Of which, export turnover of goods reached 281.5 billion USD, a rise of 6.5%, import turnover of goods gained 262.4 billion USD, rose by 3.6%. The trade balance of goods in 2020 saw an estimated trade surplus of 19.1 billion USD.
a) Export and import of goods
Export turnover in December 2020 was estimated at 26.5 billion USD, increased by 5% over the previous month and increased by 17.6% compared to the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, export turnover reached 78.9 billion USD, grew by 13.3% over the same period in 2019 and reduced by 1.1% compared to the third quarter of this year. In the fourth quarter, there were 12 products with export turnover of more than 1 billion USD, accounting for 77.2% of total export turnover. Generally in 2020, the export turnover was estimated at 281.5 billion USD, rose by 6.5% over 2019, of which, the domestic economic sector was 78.2 billion USD, went down by 1.1%, accounting for 27.8% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 203.3 billion USD, rose by 9.7%, sharing 72.2% (the proportion increased by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year). In 2020, there were 31 products with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, contributing 91.9% to the total export turnover (6 products with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 64.3%).
Import turnover in December 2020 was estimated at 27.5 billion USD, expanded by 11.4% over the previous month and increased by 22.7% compared to the same period in 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the import turnover reached 76.4 billion USD, rose by 15.7% over the same period in 2019 and grew by 10.7% compared to the third quarter of this year. In the fourth quarter, 13 products had import turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 72.3% of the total import turnover. Generally in 2020, the import turnover was estimated at 262.4 billion USD, increased by 3.6% over 2019, of which the domestic economic sector reached 93.6 billion USD, went down by 10%; the FDI sector gained 168.8 billion USD, edged up by 13%. There were 35 imported products with turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 89.6% of total import turnover (4 products with import turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 49.4%).
b) Export and import of services
In 2020, export turnover of services was estimated at 6.3 billion USD, went down by 68.4% over 2019 (the fourth quarter reached 820 million USD, decreased by 84.8%), of which travel service gained 2.5 billion USD (accounting for 39.8% of the total turnover), decreased by 78.8%; transportation service reached 727 million USD (accounting for 11.6%), decreased by 83.4%. Service import turnover in this year was estimated at 18.3 billion USD, edged down by 14.5% over last year, of which transport services gained 8.3 billion USD (accounting for 45.2% of total turnover), increased by 3.5%; tourism services reached 4 billion USD (sharing 22%), declined by 37.5%. Trade deficit of services in 2020 was 12 billion USD, nearly 2 times higher than the service export turnover and up 10.5 billion USD compared to 2019.
10. The price of domestic petroleum, gas increased according to the world fuel price; the rice price increased in line with the exported rice price and the increased consumer demand at the end of the year were factors that made the consumer price index in December 2020 up 0.1% over the previous month and up 0.19% over the same period last year. The average consumer price index of 2020 increased by 3.23% over 2019. The merchandise term of trade of 2020 decreased by 0.74% compared to 2019, reflecting unfavorable Vietnam goods export’s price to abroad compare to imported goods price from abroad to Vietnam.
a) Consumer price index
The consumer price index (CPI) in December 2020 increased by 0.1% over the previous month. 7/11 major groups of goods and services had CPI in December increased over the previous month, of which the transport group had the highest increase of 2.45%. Generally in the fourth quarter of 2020, CPI increased by 0.22% compared to the previous quarter, and rose by 1.38% compared to the same period of 2019. Average CPI of 2020 increased by 3.23% compared to 2019, met the target below 4% set by the National Assembly. Average core inflation of 2020 grew up by 2.31% compared to 2019.
b) Gold price index and US dollar
Domestic gold prices fluctuated according to the world gold prices. The world gold price dropped rapidly in the early days of December after reaching its peak because the Covid-19 vaccine was approved by many countries and the US could soon complement an economic support package. However, the world gold price increased again in recent days after the US Congress agreed on the economic stimulus package of 900 billion USD. Domestically, the gold price index in December 2020 decreased by 0.83% from the previous month; an increase of 30.95% over the same period in 2019; on average, the domestic gold price in 2020 increased by 28.05% compared to 2019.
The US dollar price index in December 2020 decreased by 0.23% over the previous month and decreased by 0.09% over the same period of 2019; average US dollar price index in 2020 decreased by 0.02% against 2019.
c) Producer price index and merchandise import and export price index
Producer price index (PPI) for agriculture, forestry and fishery products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.88% compared to the previous quarter and by 7.75% compared to the same period last year; similarly, PPI for industry products increased by 0.1% and went down by 0.78%; PPI for services increased by 0.66% and fell by 1.3%. Generally, in 2020, the PPI for agriculture, forestry and fishery products increased by 8.24% over 2019, the PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.6%, the PPI for services decreased by 0.73%.
Merchandise export price index in the fourth quarter of this year increased by 0.54% over the previous quarter and decreased by 1.3% over the same period last year, similarly, merchandise import price index increased by 0.38% and fell by 0.49%; merchandise term of trade increased by 0.15% and decreased by 0.81%. Generally, in 2020, the merchandise export price index decreased by 1.32% over 2019; the merchandise import price index of goods decreased by 0.59%; the merchandise term of trade decreased by 0.74%.
II. SOME SOCIAL ISSUES
1. The average population of Vietnam in 2020 was 97.58 million people. The labor and employment situation in the fourth quarter of 2020 showed many signs of prosperity compared to the previous quarter, but due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the unemployment and underemployment rate for the whole year 2020 were higher than in 2019.
The average population in 2020 of the whole country was estimated at 97.58 million persons, an increase of 1,098.7 thousand persons, equivalent to an increase of 1.14% in comparison with that in 2019, of which, the urban population was 35.93 million persons, accounting for 36.8%; the rural population 61.65 million persons, accounting for 63.2%; the male population is 48.59 million persons, accounting for 49.8%; the female population 48.99 million persons, accounting for 50.2%.
Generally of 2020, the labor force aged 15 years and over was 54.6 million persons, decreased by 1.2 million persons compared to the previous year; the labor force in the working age was 48.3 million persons, a decrease of 849.5 thousand persons compared to the same period last year; employed population aged 15 years and overworking were 53.4 million persons.
Generally, in 2020, the unemployment rate was 2.26%, of which the unemployment rate of labor force in the urban and the rural was 3.61% and 1.59%.
This year, the underemployment rate at working age was estimated at 2.51%, of which the urban and rural area was 1.68% and 2.93%.
2. In 2020, although the life of the people across the country faced many difficulties in effecting of natural disasters and epidemics Covid-19, with the attention of all levels, sectors from central to the local level and due to the strength of the population, people’s lives were generally stable.
The average monthly income per capita in 2020 at current prices was estimated at 4,190 VND. The hunger of farmers hardly appears in the last months of the year. Generally, in 2020, the whole country had 16.5 thousand households suffering from food shortage, a decrease of 75.9% over the previous year, corresponding to 66.5 thousand persons suffering from food shortage, a decrease of 76.1%. The multidimensional poverty rate in 2020 was estimated at 4.7%, down 1 percentage point compared to 2019.
The program of building new countryside in recent years has had a positive impact, contributing to improving the lives of people in rural areas, promoting the development of socio-economic infrastructure systems in rural areas. By the end of November 2020, there were 5,415 communes and 173 districts recognized as meeting the new rural standard.
Social security work was interested in implementing. According to the preliminary report, the total gifts awarded to policy beneficiaries, people with meritorious services and social protection beneficiaries in 2020 were more than 24.9 trillion VND, of which 13.4 trillion VND supporting for the people affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 4.1 trillion VND supporting for the policy beneficiaries and people with meritorious services, 3.1 trillion VND to supporting for the poor, near poor and 26.6 million Health insurance cards, free health care books/cards were donated to policy beneficiaries in the nationwide.
Particularly for the people affected by natural disasters, according to the report of the Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, the Prime Minister decided to support localities with a budget of 2,161.8 billion VND, of which: 381.8 billion VND to support Northern mountainous provinces; 1,250 billion VND to support the Central provinces; 530 billion VND to support the Mekong Delta provinces. Supplying nearly 23 thousand tons of rice for people affected by natural disasters, of which the Central provinces were nearly 19.4 thousand tons.
3. The work of education and training affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, but the Education sector promptly proposed coping options; appropriate directions, and instructions to ensure safety for students and teachers while implementing the school year plan.
In the school year 2020-2021, the whole country had 5,076.1 thousand preschool children (725.5 thousand nursery school children and 4,350.6 thousand kindergarten children); 17,551 thousand pupils of general education (8,890 thousand pupils in primary school; 5,920.5 thousand pupils in lower secondary school; 2,740.5 thousand pupils in upper secondary schools) and 1,560.3 thousand university students.
Currently, the country has had 1,909 vocational education institutions, including 399 colleges; 458 intermediate school; 1,052 vocational education centers. The number of teachers in vocational training institutions reached 84,302 people, including 37,633 teachers at colleges, 14,727 teachers at secondary schools, 20,344 teachers at vocational education centers and 11,598 teachers belonging to other establishments participating in vocational education activities.
The Covid-19 epidemic has affected the enrollment and training of the vocational education system. By the end of November 2020, vocational education recruited 1,940 thousand people, of which 520 thousand people are enrolled at college and intermediate level; Primary level and other vocational training programs enroll 1,420 thousand people.
4. The Covid-19 pandemic in the world continued to be complicated. In Vietnam, the epidemic was basically under control.
As of 6:00 pm on December 26th, 2020, there were 80,281.3 thousand cases of Covid-19 in the world (1,759.1 thousand deaths). The 5 countries with the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world were the United State, India, Brazil, Russia and France. In Vietnam, as of 6:00 pm on December 26th, 2020, there were 1,440 cases have been reported, 1,303 cases have been cured (35 deaths).
In 2020, the whole country had 128,970 cases of hemorrhagic fever (23 cases died); 78,063 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (1 case died); 622 cases of virus encephalitis (11 died); 14 cases of meningococcal disease; 3,311 cases of scarlet fever suspected for measles, of which 307 cases were positive for measles; 242 cases were positive for diphtheria (5 died).
As of December 18th, 2020 the total number of alive HIV-infected persons over the country was 211,013 persons; 97,110 cases turned to AIDS and the number of deaths of HIV/AIDS as of above time-point was 99,113 persons.
In 2020, there were 98 of food poisoning cases in the whole country, poisoned by 2,712 persons (22 died).
5. Traffic accident situation in 2020 has had many positive changes compared to 2019, due to the effectiveness of Decree No. 100/2019/ND-CP dated December 30, 2019 by the Government on regulations on sanctioning violations administration in the road and railway transport sector.
For the whole year 2020, there were 14,510 traffic accidents nationwide, including 8,344 traffic accidents that were less serious or more, and 6,166 traffic crashes, caused 6,700 death, 4,384 people suffering from injuries, and 6,420 people were slightly injured. Compared to the previous year, the number of traffic accidents in 2020 decreased by 17.7% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious or more decreased by 9.5%; the number of traffic crashes fell at 26.6%); the number of deaths decreased by 12.1%; the injured decreased by 14% and the slightly injured by 24.7%. On average, there were 40 traffic accidents nationwide per day, including 23 traffic accidents, and 17 traffic crashes, causing 18 deaths, 12 people injured, and 18 people were slightly injured in 2020.
6. Natural disasters, environmental pollution, fire and explosion significantly affect the lives of people in some localities.
In 2020, natural disasters will occur consecutively, with complicated developments with 14 storms; 265 thunderstorms, tornadoes, heavy rain; 120 floods, flash floods, landslides and droughts, saltwater intrusion left 379 people dead and missing, 1,060 injured; 4.3 thousand houses collapsed, swept away; 594.9 thousand houses were damaged; Nearly 269 thousand hectares of rice and 134.9 thousand hectares of crops were damaged; 38.6 thousand cattle and 4.1 million poultry died; total property damage was estimated at 39.1 trillion VND, of which damage from storms and floods was 32.3 trillion VND (accounting for 82.8% of the total damage).
In the whole year 2020, 14,332 cases of environmental violations were discovered nationwide, of which 12,820 cases were handled with a total fine of over 176.8 billion dongs. There were 2,853 cases of fire and explosion nationwide, killing 103 people and injuring 173 people, and the number of damage was estimated at 614.2 billion dongs./.
GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE
 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasted global growth to decline by 4.2% in 2020, adjusted up by 0.3 percentage points from the forecast released in September 2020. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted global growth fell 4.4%, up 0.5 percentage points; International credit rating organization Fitch Ratings (FR) forecasted a 3.7% decrease, up 0.7 percentage points.
 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted US growth in 2020 to be negative 3.5% (up 1.8 percentage points from the forecast in September 2020) and 4.2% growth in 2021. Similarly, China grew 2.1% in 2020 (up 0.3 percentage points) and 7.7% in 2021. Japan maintained its negative growth forecast of 5.4% in 2020 and will recover at a 2.3% increase in 2021, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The Eurozone growth forecasted negative at 7.4% in 2020 (up 0.6 percentage points) and up 5.6% in 2021.
 GDP growth rate of 2011-2020 was accordingly: 6.24%; 5.25%; 5.42%; 5.98%; 6.68%; 6.21%; 6.81%; 7.08%; 7.02%; 2.91%.
 GDP growth rate of quarter fourth in the period 2011-2020 was respectively: 6.71%; 5.57%; 6.05%; 6.96%; 7.01%; 6.68%; 7.65%; 7.31%; 6.97%; 4.48%.
 The added value growth rate of agriculture in 2011-2020 was regardingly: 4.16%; 2.57%; 2.19%; 2.51%; 2.03%; 0.72%; 2.07%; 2.89%; 0.61%; 2.55%.
 The added value growth rate of fishery in 2011-2020 was respectively: 4.34%; 3.75%; 3.82%; 6.53%; 2.80%; 2.80%; 5.54%; 6.46%; 6.30%; 3.08%.
 The added value growth rate of industry in 2011-2020 was accordingly: 9.46%; 8.20%; 4.93%; 6.32%; 9.39%; 7.06%; 7.85%; 8.79%; 8.86%; 3.36%.
 The added value growth rate of manufacturing in 2011-2020 was in succession: 14.08%; 9.05%; 7.22%; 7.41%; 10.60%; 11.90%; 14.40%; 12.98%; 11.29%; 5.82%.
 The added value increase/decrease growth rate of construction in 2011-2020 was in turn: -0.26%; 3.66%; 5.84%; 6.93%; 10.82%; 10.0%; 8.70%; 9.16%; 9.10%; 6.76%.
 The added value growth rate of services in 2011-2020 was successively: 7.47%; 6.71%; 6.72%; 6.16%; 6.33%; 6.98%; 7.44%; 7.03%; 7.30%; 2.34%.
 Labour productivity in 2019 reached 4.791 USD/employee.
Compared to the same period last year, the number of enterprises decreased by 6.4%; the registered capital rose by 129%; the number of employees decreased by 37.8%.
The corresponding indices of the third quarter of 2020: 32.2% of enterprises assessed the business production situation better than the previous quarter; 31.9% of enterprises faced difficulties and 35.9% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable.
 The growth rate of investment capital of State budget over the last year of 2011-2020 was respectively: 25.9%; 15%; 1%; 0.3%; 12.4%; 16.1%; 6.6%; 12.2%; 7.1%; 34.5%.
 Total export and import turnover in 2019 reached 517.7 billion USD, jumped up by 7.7% over the same period last year, of which exports reached 264.3 billion USD, went up by 8.4%; import reached 253.1 billion USD, edged up by 6.8%.
 Trade surplus value in the period 2016-2020 is respectively: 1.6 billion USD; 1.9 billion USD; 6.5 billion USD; 10.9 billion USD; 19.1 billion USD.
 Data in December 2020 meeting by an interdisciplinary team consisting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the State Bank of Vietnam, the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office meeting estimates based on export turnover figures, import as of December 24, 2020 of the General Department of Customs combined with market information, the proportion and trend of export and import of goods. The General Statistics Office received and updated the report on the afternoon of December 25, 2020.
 Average CPI growth rate in the period of 2016-2020 compared to last year were: 2.66%; 3.53%; 3.54%; 2.79%; 3.23%, respectively.
 Merchandise export price index/ Merchandise import price index.
 The unemployment rate of the labor force of 2019 was 1.99%, of which urban area was 2.93%; the rural area was 1.54%.
 Exclude other institutions participating in vocational education.