In the complicated situation of Covid-19 pandemic, with serious impacts on economies in the world, international organizations and financial institutions all recognized that global economic growth will deeply decline in 2020. Forecast of the world economic growth, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) supposed the global economy will decrease by 4.5% in 2020; Fitch Ratings and Oxford Economics forecast the world GDP growth in 2020 will both decrease by 4.4%. For some major economies, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts China’s growth will reach by 1.8%; The United States decreases by 5.3%; the EU area goes down by 8.0%; Japan declines by 5.4 %%; Indonesia drops by 1.0%; Malaysia decreases by 5.0%; Thailand goes down by 8.0%; The Philippines fells by 7.3% and Singapore reduces by 6.2%.
Contrary to the world’s gloomy economic picture, our country’s economy continued to achieve positive growth when GDP in 9 months of 2020 increased by 2.12%, of which the first quarter went up by 3.68%; the second quarter increased by 0.39% and the third quarter rose by 2.62%. This shows that our economy has passed the bottom of the economic recovery graph in the second quarter. Despite being the lowest growth rate of 9 months in the period 2011-2020, Vietnam is the only country in ASEAN and one of few countries in the world to achieve positive growth; also being a rare bright spot in the world economic picture in 9 months of 2020. This result has affirmed the correctness in direction and administration of economic recovery, disease prevention and determination, unanimity of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister; efforts of people and business community to effectively implement the goal of “both preventing pandemic and developing socio-economic”.
GDP growth rate of 9 months in 2011-2020
In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, the agricultural sector increased by 1.65%, contributing 0.19 percentage points to the overall increase of total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 2.02% but accounted for a low proportion, so only contributed 0.01 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 2.44%, contributing 0.08 percentage points. The bright spots in this area are summer-autumn rice and winter-spring rice with good production; the yield of perennial trees has grown well; poultry husbandry is well developed; shrimp export started to be prosper. These are factors that make the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector become the support of the economy in difficult times, and the basis for social security during the pandemic.
In the industry and construction sector, the industry in 9 months of 2020 increased by 2.69% over the same period last year, much lower than the growth rate of the same period in 2011-2020, contributing 0.91 percentage points to the total added value of the whole economy. The manufacturing increased by 4.6%, lower than the growth rate of the same period of 2011-2020, contributing 1.02 percentage points and being the main engine of economic growth in 9 months of this year. The mining industry decreased by 5.35%, decreasing by 0.32 percentage points. Construction rose by 5.02%, contributing 0.33 percentage points.
The service sector in 9 months achieved the lowest growth rate of the same period in 2011-2020. In the service sector, the contribution of market service industries has a large proportion to the increase in total value added of 9 months as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 4.98% over the same period last year, contributing 0.54 percentage points; finance, banking and insurance increased by 6.68%, contributing 0.4 percentage points; transportation and warehousing went down by 4%, down 0.14 percentage points; accommodation and catering services sector decreased by 17.03%, decreasing 0.76 percentage points. For this sector, although in September 2020, trade and service activities showed signs of rebound, but 9 months of 2020 recorded the lowest growth in total retail sales of goods and services. The bright spot in the service sector is that the domestic economic sector’s exports still maintain a high growth rate, actively supporting trade surplus in 9 months of 2020. In the context of commodity exports of many countries around the world continue to decrease or slow down, an increase of export by 4.2% in 9 months of 2020 and surplus of trade balance are great efforts of our country.
In last months of 2020, our country needs to realize the dual goal of “both preventing pandemics and developing socio-economic”, ensuring the economy to operate effectively in a new normal state. To achieve GDP growth rate of about 2% – 3% in 2020, it is necessary to continue accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital because it is an important basis for creating jobs, building infrastructure and maintaining growth in long term. At the same time, implementing solutions such as stimulating domestic consumption, developing domestic and export markets, ensuring stable products consumption of enterprises…