Year 2015 – The year of great significance and importance, the last year of implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2011-2015 was closed. The results of production and business activities in 2015 were the basis and drivers for developing and implementing the 2016 socio-economic development plan, the first year of the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2016-2020.

The 2015 socio-economy took place in the context of instability in the global market, the world economy still faced with great risks of unpredictable factors. Economic outlook of Eurozone was not very optimistic. The global trade declined due to weak aggregate demand. The world economy did not regain its growth and showed slow recovery. Plummeted crude oil prices led to commodity prices tended to fall rapidly, affecting exporting countries. The uncertainty of the global financial market with the devaluation of the yuan and the declining growth of the Chinese economy had a strong impact on the world economy. In the domestic market, fluctuation of prices in the world markets, especially the decline in oil prices, put pressure on the balance of the State budget, but at the same time it was favorable factors for reducing input costs and developing production, and stimulating consumption.

In this situation, right from the beginning of the year, the Party and the National Assembly, the Government timely issued many Resolutions and policies along with specific solutions and tasks, of which Resolution 01/NQ-CP dated 3rd January, 2015 on the main tasks and solutions to direct the implementation of the 2015 socio-economic development plan and State budget estimate; Resolution No. 19/NQ-CP dated 12th March, 2015 on main tasks and solutions to continue to improve the business environment, national competitiveness in 2015-2016, simultaneously focused on leading and directing ministries/agencies, all-level administrative authorities, localities to strictly and synchronously implement solutions, gradually removing difficulties and promoting production and business in order to realize the overall goal of the 2015 socio-economic development plan: “Enhancing macroeconomic stability, focusing on solving difficulties for production and business activities. Strongly implementing strategic breakthroughs and restructuring the economy in association with transforming the growth model, improving the efficiency and competitiveness, striving for higher growth compared to 2014. Continuing to develop the social fields, culture, education, science, technology, environmental protection, and to improve people’s life. Promoting administrative reform, judicial reform, preventing and fighting against corruption, practicing thrift and combating waste. Strengthening national defense and security, firmly protecting national sovereignty, ensuring political security, social order and safety. Improving the effectiveness of foreign affairs, integration and international cooperation”. The detailed production and business results of sectors and economic sectors and activities in 2015 were as follows:

I. ECONOMIC GROWTH

  1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

The gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was estimated to increase 6.68% compared to 2014, of which the growth rate of the first, second, third and fourth quarter reached 6.12%, 6.47%, 6.87%, and7.01%, respectively. This year’s growth was higher than the target of  6.2% and higher than the growth rate of the years 2011-2014[1], showing a clear recovery of the economy. In the overall growth of 6.68% of the economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.41%, lower than the increase of 3.44% in 2014, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the increase general; the industry and construction increased by 9.64%, much higher than the  rise of 6.42% in the previous year, contributing 3.2 percentage points; the service sector increased by 6.33%, contributing 2.43 percentage points.

In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, the forestry activities achieved the highest increase of 7.69%, but only contributed 0.05 percentage points to the overall increase due to its low proportion; although the agricultural activities increased at a low rate of 2.03% due to the impact of natural disasters and droughts, but contributed 0.26 percentage points because its largest proportion in the sector (about 75%); the fishery activities increased by 2.80%, the lowest growth in the last 5 years[2] due to facing many difficulties in weather, epidemics, prices and markets for consumption.

In the industry and construction sector, the industrial sector increased 9.39% over the previous year, of which the manufacturing increased by 10.60%, much higher than the increase of some previous years[3], contributing significantly on the growth rate of the sector II and made an important contribution to the overall growth rate. The mining and quarrying increased by 6.50%. The construction increased 10.82% compared to the previous year, this was the highest increase since 2010[4].

In the service sector, the contribution of some large-shared economic activities to the overall growth rate was as follows: the wholesale and retail trade accounted for the largest proportion and reached an increase of 9.06% compared to 2014, contributing 0.82 percentage points to the overall increase; the finance, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.38%, contributing 0.41 percentage points; the real estate activities was improved with an increase of 2.96%, higher than the increase of 2.80% in the previous year and mainly focused residential house transaction, contributing 0.16 percentage points.

The size of the economy this year at current prices reached 4192.9 trillion VND; GDP per capita in 2015 was estimated at 45.7 million VND, equivalent to 2109 USD, an increase of 57 USD compared to 2014. The economic structure this year continued to show a shift but at the low pace, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 17.00%; the industry and construction sector accounted for 33.25%; the service sector accounted for 39.73% (the product taxes less subsidies on production was 10.02%). The corresponding structure of 2014 was: 17.70%; 33.21%; 39.04% (the product taxes less subsidies was 10.05%).

From the expenditure approach of GDP in 2015, the final consumption increased by 9.12% compared to 2014, contributing 10.66 percentage points to the overall increase; the gross capital formation increased by 9.04%, contributing 4.64 percentage points; the balance of exports and imports of goods and services was in trade deficit, reducing 8.62 percentage points of the overall growth rate.

GDP growth rate of

years 2013, 2014 and 2015

 

              The growth rate compared to the previous year (%) Contribution to the growth of 2015
(Percentage points)
2013 2014 2015
Total 5.42 5.98 6.68 6.68
Agriculture, forestry and fishery 2.63 3.44 2.41 0.40
Industry and Construction 5.08 6.42 9.64 3.20
Services 6.72 6.16 6.33 2.43
Product taxes less subsidies on production 6.42 7.93 5.54 0.65
  1. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Gross output of agriculture, forestry and fishery production in 2015 at constant price in 2010 was estimated at 858.4 trillion VND, rising by 2.6% compared with that of against 2014, including: Agriculture reached 637.4 trillion VND, rising by 2.3%; forestry reached 26.6 trillion VND, a rise of 7.9%; fishery reached 194.4 trillion VND, rising by 3.1%.

Agriculture

Paddy production in 2015 was estimated at 45.2 million tons, rising by 240.9 thousand tons compared with that of  against 2014[5] due to cultivated area was estimated at 7.8 million hectares, rising by 18.7 thousand hectares; yield reached 57.7 quintals / hectare, an increase of 0.2 quintal / hectare. If added 5.3 million tons of maize, total production of cereals this year was estimated at 50.5 million tons, rising by 319.8 thousand tons compared with that of against 2014.

Paddy production, cultivated area of ​​winter-spring paddy reached 3.1 million hectares, a decline of 4.1 thousand hectares compared with that of over the previous winter-spring crop; the yield reached 66.5 quintal / hectare, a decrease of 0.4 quintal / hectare, yield reached 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 158.8 thousand tons, mainly due to the influence of hot weather occurred in most localities and saline intrusion in the Mekong River Delta. Cultivated area of ​​summer-autumn and autumn-winter paddy reached nearly 2.8 million hectares, an increase of 51 thousand hectares; yield reached 53.8 quintals / hectare, an increase of 0.8 quintals / hectare and production reached 15 million tons, an increase of 512.5 thousand tons.

Cultivated area of ​​winter paddy reached over 1.9 million hectares, decreasing by 28.2 thousand hectares compared with that of over the previous year crop because the localities implemented land accumulation and consolidation and conversion a part of ineffective area into fruits or aquaculture with higher income. Yield of summer paddy this year was estimated at 49.2 quintals / hectare, an increase of 0.1 quintals / hectare compared with that of over the previous crop; production was estimated at 9.5 million tons, a drop of 112.7 thousand tons.

Production outputs of some other annual crops recorded low: sweet potato production reached 1330.4 thousand tons, a drop of 70.9 thousand tons compared with that of over the previous year (area decreased by 3.2 thousand hectares); sugarcane reached 18.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons (area reduced by 20.5 thousand hectares); peanuts reached 451.8 thousand tons,  a drop of 1.5 thousand tons (area decreased by 8.7 thousand hectares); soybeans reached 146.4 thousand tons, a drop of 10.1 thousand tons (a decrease of 8.6 thousand hectares in area). Particularly with cassava and vegetables, the cassava production was estimated to reach 10.7 million tons, an increase of 464 thousand tons (by 13.7 thousand hectares); vegetables and beans reached 15.9 million tons, rising by 282.2 thousand tons (by 9.5 thousand hectares).

Perennial industrial plants continued to grow. Area and production of  some major trees increased compared with that of against 2014, of which tea area was estimated at 134.7 thousand hectares, rising by 1.6% of over the previous year; production of tea bud reached 1 million tons, rising by 1.9%; coffee area reached 645.2 thousand hectares, rising by 0.6%, production reached 1445 thousand tons, rising by 2.6%; rubber area reached 981 thousand hectares, rising by 0.2%, production reached 1017 thousand tons, an increase of 5.2%; pepper area reached 97.6 thousand hectares, a growth of 14%, production reached 168.8 thousand tons, an increase of 11.3%. Particularly cashew, although recorded a decrease in area by 1.5% compared with that of over the previous year, but due to recorded an increase in yield, production reached approximately of against 2014.

Some fruits recorded a good yield: Pomelo reached 457.9 thousand tons, rising by 3.4%; mango reached 702 thousand tons, rising by 3.4%; bananas reached 1.9 million tons, a growth of 3.3%; Pineapple reached 598.3 thousand tons, a rise of 1.1%. Some fruits recorded a lower of against in 2014: Tangerine production reached 161.6 thousand tons, a drop of 4.5%; orange reached 579.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.7%; litchi reached 362.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.7%; long an reached 512.3 thousand tons, a drop of 1.3%.

Cattle and poultry husbandry changed into a positive direction, from small and small scattered farms into concentrated livestock farms and applying scientific and technical technologies to increase economic efficiency. According to livestock survey results as of October 1, 2015, buffalo population reached 2.5 million heads, rising by 0.1% compared with that of over the same period last year; cattle reached 5.4 million heads, rising by 2.5%, only cow milk reached 275.3 thousand heads, rising by 21%. Number of pigs recorded 27.7 million heads, rising by 3.7%; chicken reached 341.9 million heads, rising by 4.3%. Production of  all kind meat living weight of this year was estimated to be good, of which buffalo living weight production reached 85.8 thousand tons, rising by 0.1%; production of cattle living weight reached 299.3 thousand tons, rising by 2.2%; production of pig living weight reached 3.5 million tons, rising by 4.2%; production of poultry living weight reached 908.1 thousand tons, rising by 3.8%.

Disease on cattle and poultry in the year occurred in some localities. As of December 22, 2015, the country no longer recorded blue ear disease on pigs; epidemics were not over 21 days in other provinces: epidemics recorded in some provinces such as; Avian influenza in Quang Ninh, Quang Nam, Ba Ria – Vung Tau; foot and mouth disease in Ninh Thuan, Cao Bang, Lang Son, Yen Bai, Kon Tum, Binh Dinh.

Forestry

Area of ​​concentrated forests in 2015 was estimated to reach 240.6 thousand hectares, an increase of 8.5% compared with that of against 2014, of which some localities recorded large area of ​​newly planted forests focussed in localities such as: Ha Giang by 11.6 thousand hectares, an increase of nearly 3 times of over the previous year; Yen Bai reached 15.5 thousand hectares, by 25.7%; Nghe An reached 19.5 thousand hectares, by 21.5%; Phu Tho reached  8.2 thousand hectares, by 16.4%. Number of scattered trees in year reached 161.2 million trees, rising by 3.8%.

Wood production in 2015 was estimated at 8309 thousand m3, an increase of 11.9% of over the previous year; firewood production reached 28.4 million ste, an increase of 0.4%. Some localities recorded a large volume of wood production compared with that of over the previous year: Quang Ngai reached 715 thousand m3, by 36.5%; Quang Tri reached 399 thousand m3, by 27.1%; Binh Dinh reached 680 thousand m3, by 26%; Tuyen Quang reached  472 thousand m3, by 20.1%.

Forest protection an prevention measures was taken by relevant agencies and local authorities at all levels, so there recorded forest firesin some localities, level of damage saw a decrease compared with that of against the previous year. Total damaged forest area of ​​the country in 2015 was estimated at 1889 hectares, a drop of 53.1%, of which forest fire area was 1076 hectares, a drop of 65.9%; Area of ​​deforested recorded 813 hectares, a drop of 6.6%. Some provinces witnessed much forest fired area: Thanh Hoa by 169 hectares; Ha Giang by 156 hectares; Son La by 120 hectares; Binh Dinh by 114 hectares. Some localities recorded much deforested area: Dak Nong by 282 hectares; Dien Bien by 174 hectares; Lam Dong by 158 hectares.

Fishery

Fishery production in 2015 was estimated at 6549.7 thousand tons, rising by 3.4% of over the previous year, of which fish reached 4725.4 thousand tons, rising by 3.4%; shrimp reached 797.2 thousand tons, an increase of 0.9%.

Aquaculture in the year faced many difficulties due to abnormal change of weather and recorded outbreak of diseases; export market fell sharply, purchasing price  recorded low while input costs increased. Many localities changed farming methods and models to improve yield, efficiency and quality. Aquaculture production in 2015 was estimated at 3513.4 thousand tons, rising by 2.9% of over the previous year, of which fish reached 2522.6 thousand tons, rising by 3.0%; shrimp reached 628.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.5%.

Pegasus farming changed from small-scale farming to intensive farming model based on the value chain, focused on applying the process in accordance with VietGap, Global GAP, ASC[6] standards. However, pangasius farming still faced difficulties because price still remained low, Pegasus export was subjected to high tax rates. Particularly for some large-scale farming enterprises, following the value chain model, it still maintained a relatively stable growth rate due to the initiative in breeding and consumption markets. Area of ​​intensive Pegasus farming in the year was estimated at 4949 hectares, an increase of 0.5% of over the previous year; Pegasus production was estimated at 1204.3 thousand tons, rising by 1.2%, of which Dong Thap reached 400 thousand tons, a growth of 0.9%; An Giang reached 284.6 thousand tons, an increase of 4.6%; Ben Tre reached 170.6 thousand tons, rising by 7.7%.

Shrimp farming faced difficulties due to unstable prices, the effects of long lasting hot weather and outbreaks of disease that caused damage to producers. White leg shrimp farming was no longer effective as it was in previous years due to its poor disease resistance and high competition, so a part of white leg shrimp farmings was changed into black tiger shrimp farming. Area of ​​vannamei farming of the year was estimated at 84 thousand hectares, a drop of 1.8% compared with that of over the previous year; production reached 344.6 thousand tons, a drop of 3.7%. Area of ​​tiger shrimp farming in the year reached 570 thousand hectares, rising by 14.6% of over the previous year; production reached 249.2 thousand tons, rising by 3.2%.

The weather recorded favorable and a decrease of gasoline prices that encouraged fishermen actively conduct marine catching. Production of fishery this year reached 3036.3 thousand tons, rising by 4% of over the previous year, of which fish reached 2202.8 thousand tons, rising by 3.8%; shrimp reached 169 thousand tons, rising by 6.3%. Ocean tuna fishing continued to grow especially in the Central Coast region: Production of ocean tuna in the year reached 16.5 thousand tons, an increase of 5.5% of over the previous year, of which Binh Dinh reached 8902 tons, by 2.9%; Phu Yen reached 4300 tons, by 6.7%; Khanh Hoa reached 3250 tons, by 10.8%.

  1. Industrial production

The index of industrial production (IIP) in December was estimated to increase by 9% over the same period last year, of which the mining and quarrying decreases by 6.6%; the manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, the water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 13.8%, 7.7%, and 10.5%, respectively.

Generally for 2015, the IIP was estimated to increase by 9.8% compared to 2014 (the increase in the first, second, third and fourth quarter was 9.3%, 10.2%, 9.3%, est., 10%, respectively), much higher than the growth rate of 5.9% in 2013 and 7.6% in 2014. In the overall increase of the whole industrial activities, the mining and quarrying increased by 6.5% (the figure in 2014 was 2.4%), contributing 1.4 percentage points to the overall increase; the manufacturing increased by 10.6% (8.7% in 2014), having the largest contribution to the overall increase with 7.5 percentage points; the production and distribution of electricity increased by 11.4%, contributing 0.8 percentage points; the water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased 7.4%, contributing 0.1 percentage points.

Relating usage of industrial products, the IIP of intermediary products for the following production process increased by 9.4% over the previous year (the figure in 2014 was 7.8%); the IIP of products used as capital formation and final consumption increased by 10.2% (the figure in 2014 was 7.4%); products used as means of production increased by 11.8% (production tools, construction materials increased by 23.4%, 9.6%, respectively); the IIP of consumer goods for residents increased by 9.3%.

In 2-digit industrial activities, a number of activities showed a significant increase in the 2015 IIP compared to 2014: the manufacture of electronic, computers and optical products (37%); the manufacture of motor vehicles (26.7%); the manufacture of leather and related products (17.4%); the manufacture of textile (13.9%). The IIP of some activities moderately increased, including the manufacture of paper and paper products (12.6%); the manufacture of rubber and plastic products (12.3%); the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products (12%); the manufacture of basic metals (11.9%); the production and distribution of electricity (11.4%); the manufacture of furniture (10.8%); the manufacture of electrical equipment (10.3%). Some activities experienced a one-digit increase: the manufacture of food products (8.5%); the manufacture of beverages (7.4%); the water collection, treatment and supply (7.3%); the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (6.8%); the manufacture of wearing apparel (5.6%); the manufacture of chemical and chemical products (5.4%); the extraction of hard coal and lignite (5.1%); the manufacture of tobacco products (3.8%); the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products (3.6%).

The IIP of some industrial products achieved an enormous increase compared to 2014, such as: automobiles (54.5%); television (51.2%); mobile phones (31.6%); shower gel, facial cleanser (19.8%); bar and angle steel (18.6%); powder milk (18.5%); leather shoes and sandals, rolled steel (17.8%); animal feed (16.5%); liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (15.7%); fresh milk (15.4%). Some products witnessed a moderate growth in the IIP: aquatic feed (14%); electricity (11.6%); cement (10.7%), chemical paint (10.4%). Some products saw a slight increase in the IIP: extracted crude oil (7.5%); running water (6.9%); processed seafood (6.4%); coal (5.1%). The IIP of several products decreased: sugar (0.3%); mixed fertilizer (NPK) (1.5%); fabrics from synthetic yarn (4.3%); motorcycles (12.7%).

Some industrial large shared provinces showed an increase in the 2015 IIP compared to 2014: Thai Nguyen (97%); Quang Nam (35.3%); Hai Phong (16.6%); Phu Tho (15.4%); Da Nang (12.9%); Binh Duong (10.9%); Hai Duong (10.6%); Bac Ninh (8.9%); Dong Nai (8.6%); Quang Ngai (8.6%); Ha Noi (8.2%); Ho Chi Minh City (7.9%); Can Tho (7.1%); Quang Ninh (6.7%); Vinh Phuc (1.9%); Ba Ria-Vung Tau (1.4%).

The index of industrial shipment (IIS) of the manufacturing activities in November 2015 increased by 1.6% over the previous month and by 10.2% over the same period last year. Generally for 11 months, the IIS increased by 12.6% over the same period in 2014, higher than the increase of the same period in the last two years[7]. A number of activities enjoyed a considerable increase in the 11-month IIS over same period last year: the manufacture of electronic, computers and optical products (49.4%); the manufacture of motor vehicles (26.6%); the manufacture of basic metals (22.9%); the manufacture of leather and related products (13.1%). The IIS of various activities slightly increased, including the manufacture of rubber and plastic products (3.6%); the manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment) (2.5%); the manufacture of tobacco products (1.7%); the manufacture of textile (1.3%). Otherwise, the IIS of the manufacture of other transport vehicles decreased by 1.8%.

The index of industrial inventory of the manufacturing as of 1st December, 2015 increased by 7.4% over the previous month and by 9.5% compared to the same period in 2014 (the figure in 2013, 2014 was 10.2% and 10%, respectively). The index of industrial inventory of the manufacture of electric equipment increased by 7.4%. Some industrial activities showed a decrease compared to the average increase of the index of industrial inventory: the manufacture of basic metals (4.2%); the manufacture of furniture (9.9%); the manufacture of tobacco products (12.1%); the manufacture of paper and paper products (26.6%). Some industrial activities showed a massive increase compared to the average increase of the index of industrial inventory: the manufacture of electronic, computers and optical products (104.8%); the manufacture of  beverages (66.8%); the manufacture of  leather and related products (30.3%); the manufacture of  motor vehicles (28.4%); the manufacture of  wearing apparel (20%); the manufacture of  rubber and plastic products (15.8%); the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products (15.6%).

The average index of industrial inventory of the manufacturing in the 11 months of 2015 was 72.3%, of which some activities experienced a huge increase in the index of industrial inventory: the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products (140.4%); the manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment) (121%); the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (114.3%); the manufacture of food products (97.4%).

The number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of 1st December, 2015 increased by 1.1% over the previous month and by 6.4% over the same period last year, of which the number of employees in State-owned enterprises, non-state enterprises, FDI enterprises increased by 1.3%, 4.6%, 8%, respectively. At the same time, the number of employees working in mining enterprises decreased by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2014; however, the number of employees working  in the manufacturing, the production and distribution of electricity, the water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 7.3%[8], 1.1%, 4.3%, respectively.

Some localities with large share of the industry sector witnessed an increase in the number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of 1st December, 2015 compared with the same period last year: Thai Nguyen (39.7%); Vinh Phuc (16%); Phu Tho (15.4%); Quang Nam (13.5%); Ba Ria-Vung Tau (10.8%); Binh Duong (9.9%); Da Nang (7%); Dong Nai (6.7%); Long An (4.5%); Bac Ninh (4.4%); Hai Duong (4.3%); Quang Ninh (2.3%); Hai Phong (1.6%); Quang Ngai (1.4%); Can Tho (1.3%); Ho Chi Minh City (0.9%); Ha Noi (0.2%).

  1. Operation of enterprises

Enterprises registration status[9]

In December, there were 7901 newly established enterprises in the whole country with registered capital of 62.8 trillion VND, a downturn of 15.1% in number of enterprises and an increase of 19.5% in registered capital compared to the previous month; the average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in the month reached 8 billion VND, rose up 40.9%. The total number of registered employees of newly established enterprises in the month was 155.3 thousand persons, rising by 2.6% over the previous month.

In the month, there were 2860 re-operated enterprises, increasing by 16.8% compared to the previous month; 8615 temporarily ceased enterprises, an upturn of 80.6%, including 1170 enterprises temporarily ceased with registration and 7445 enterprises temporarily ceased and waited to terminate their business codes or unregistered and 999 enterprises completed dissolution and terminated business production activities, a rise of 20.8%.

In 2015, there were 94754 newly registered enterprises in the whole country with a total registered capital of 601.5 trillion VND, an increase of 26.6% in number of enterprises and 39.1% in registered capital compared to 2014 (in 2014, the number of enterprises decreased by 2.7%; the number of capital increased by 8.4% compared to 2013). Besides, there were 851 trillion VND of the additional registered capital of enterprises that recorded upward adjustment of capital in 2015. Thus, the total additional registered capital in the economy this year was 1452.5 trillion VND. The average registered capital of an enterprise in 2015 gained 6.3 billion VND, a growth of 9.9% over the previous year. The number of employees expected to create jobs for newly established enterprises in 2015 was 1471.9 thousand persons, climbing up 34.9% compared to 2014.

This year, there were 21506 re-operated enterprises in the whole country, jumping by 39.5% over the previous year. This showed the efficiency of the Government and ministries, localities with management solutions to improved the business environment and supported the enterprises that continous promote.

The number of enterprises completed dissolution procedures, terminated business production activities in 2015 was 9467 enterprises, reduced 0.4% compared to the previous year, of which the enterprises with register capital size of less than 10 billion VND (93.8%). By kinds of enterprise, out of the total number of enterprises completed dissolution procedures, terminated activities, there were 3511 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 37.1%); 2668 two-member limited liability companies (making up 28.2%); 1907 private enterprises (accounting for 20.1%) and 1381 joint stock companies (sharing 14.6%).

The number of temporarily ceased enterprises was 71391 enterprises, a growth of 22.4% compared to the same period last year, including 15649 enterprises ceased for a certain period of time and 55742 enterprises temporarily ceased and waited to terminate their business codes or unregistered. Out of the total number of temporarily ceased enterprises, there were 26349 one-member limited liability companies (accounting for 36.9%); 22889 two-member limited liability companies (forming 32.1%); 13081 joint stock companies (accounting for 18.3%) and 9070 private enterprises (constituted 12.7%) and 2 partnership companies.

Business trend of enterprises

The results of the business trend survey of the manufacturing enterprises, this shows that the business production trend of enterprises in the last months of the year was better than the first months of the year, including 42.3% of enterprises assessed the business situation in the fourth quarter was better than the third quarter; 19.5% of enterprises faced more difficulties and 38.2% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable. For expected outcome of the first quarter of 2016, 40.9% of enterprises presented that the trend would get better in comparison with the fourth quarter of this year; 17.7% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficulties and 41.4% of enterprises said that the business production situation would be stable.

Regarding production volume, there were 44.8% of enterprises pointed out production volume of enterprises in the fourth quarter of this year increased compared to the previous quarter; 20.4% of enterprises reported that the production volume decrease and 34.8% of enterprises considered stable. For the trend in the first quarter of 2016, 42.2% of enterprises forecasted an increase in production volume compared to the fourth quarter of this year; 17.6% of enterprises forecasted a decrease and 40.2% of enterprises forecasted  stability. In 2016, there were 91.6% of enterprises forecasted an increase in production volume compared to 2015.

Regarding orders for goods, there were 38.6% of enterprises had more orders in the fourth quarter than the third quarter; 20.8% of enterprises had fewer orders and 40.6% of enterprises recorded stable orders. For the trend of the first quarter of 2016, 38.2% of enterprises expected an increase in orders compared to the fourth quarter of 2015; 18.1% of enterprises expected a decrease in orders and 43.7% of enterprises expected to have stable orders. There were 91.1% of enterprises forcasted to increase and keep the number of orders stable compared to 2015.

Regarding export orders, there were 30.7% of enterprises confirmed more export orders in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter; 21.4% of enterprises experienced fewer export orders and 47.9% of enterprises kept export orders stable. The trend of the first quarter of next year, there were 33% of enterprises expected to have an increase in export orders compared with the fourth quarter of this year; 19.2% of enterprises expected to decrease and 47.8% of enterprises expected to be stable. For 2016, there were 90.8% of enterprises forecasted that the number of export orders would increase and stabilize.

Regarding cost of production, there were 24.4% of enterprises confirmed cost of production per unit of product in the fourth quarter increased compared to the previous quarter; 10.4% of enterprises recorded a decreased in the cost and 65.2% of enterprises predicted the cost was stable. The trend in the first quarter of 2016, 22.4% of enterprises expected  an increase in the cost of production compared to the fourth quarter of 2015; 10.9% enterprises believed a decrease in the cost and 66.7% of enterprises expected cost of production stable

Regarding selling price, there were 15.4% of enterprises predicted an increase in selling price in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter; 13.6% of enterprises recorded the selling prices was lower and 71% of enterprises had stable selling prices. Estimated selling price in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, there were 16.1% of enterprises predicted higher selling price; 10.5% of enterprises forecasted lower selling prices and 73.4% of enterprises forecasted selling prices stable.

Regarding product inventory, 20.4% of enterprises with inventory in the fourth quarter of 2015 increased compared to the previous quarter; 31.3% of enterprises had a decrease in inventory and 48.3% of enterprises remain stable. The trend of the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter of this year, there were 16.5% of enterprises predicted an increase in the inventory; 29.5% of enterprises said that a decrease in inventory and 54.0% of enterprises expected to remain stable.

Regarding input inventory, there were 19.4% of enterprises said that input inventory increased in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter; 28.6% of enterprises said that it was reduced and 52.0% of enterprises said that they remain unchanged. It was expected that in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter of this year, 15.5% of enterprises forecasted an increase in input inventory; 28.1% of enterprises expected a decrease in inventory and 56.4% of enterprises believed that it would remain unchanged in input inventory.

Regarding labor use, there were 17.3% of enterprises affirmed that the labor size increased in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter; 12.7% of enterprises confirmed to decrease and 70% of enterprises said they kept stable. The trend of labor changes increased in the first 6 months of 2016 and the whole year 2016 compared to 2015, 90.5% of enterprises expected an increase and keep stable in the first 6 months of 2016 compared to the last 6 months of 2015.

For the whole year 2016, there were 34.3% of enterprises said that the labor size increased compared to 2015 (37.8% of FDI enterprises, 33.9% of non-state enterprises and 25.9% of state-owned enterprises forecasted an increased in labor size; 57.6% of enterprises said that they kept stable labor size; 8.1% of enterprises forecasted a decrease of labor size.

  1. Service operation

Retail sales of consumer goods and services

Retail sales of consumer goods and services this year was quite vibrant, especially in the last months of the year. The goods distribution network had been strengthened and expanded in terms of quantity and variety of business sectors with a system of supermarkets, stores, and convenient shops … in many localities. In addition, many enterprises actively exploited the source of goods, and researched consumers’ tastes to ensure the consumption demand in terms of quantity and product quality. The management and implementation of policies on the commercial market are focused on timely, as well as effectively and timely directed by all authorities and sectors at all levels, and the market price of essential commodities was stable, along with the rapid growth of production, contributed to promoting domestic trade activities, stimulating consumption in the people.

 Gross retail sales and consumer service in December were estimated at 294.7 trillion VND, up 3.3% over the previous month and 9% over the same period last year, of which retail sales of goods in the month reached 224.8 trillion VND, up 2.8% over the previous month and up 9.7% over the same period last year, particularly: transportation group increased by 5.6% and 10.7%; household appliances, tools and equipment increased by 3.4% and 14.7%; garments increased by 2.8% and 12.9%; cultural and educational items increased by 2.8% and 12.2%; food and foodstuff increased by 2.3% and 10.6%.

Revenue from accommodation and catering services in December reached 32.9 trillion VND, up 5.5% over the previous month and 7.6% over the same period last year; tourism and travelling revenue in the month reached 2.6 trillion VND, up 1.5% over the previous month and 13.8% over the same period last year; revenue from other services was estimated at 34.4 trillion VND, up 4.7% over the previous month and 5.5% over the same period last year.

Generally for the whole year of 2015, gross retail sales of consumer goods and services were estimated at 3242.9 trillion VND, up 9.5% over the previous year (excluding price factor, the increase was 8.4%, higher than the increase of 8.1% in 2014).

By kinds of economic activity, retail sales of goods this year reached 2469.9 trillion VND, accounting for 76.2% of the total and increasing by 10.6% compared to the same period in 2014, of which some commodities increased quite well as follows: household furniture, tools, equipment by 15%; food and foodstuff by 14.8%; garments by 13.3%; cultural and educational items by 12.4%; vehicles by 10.4%.

Revenue from accommodation and catering services in 2015 was estimated at 372.2 trillion VND, accounting for 11.5% and increasing by 5.2% over the same period, some provinces and cities had a good increase in revenue: Thanh Chemistry increased by 9.9%; Ho Chi Minh City increased 6.9%; Lang Son increased by 5.4%; Hanoi increased by 4.1%; Quang Binh increased by 3.8%. Tourism and travelling revenue reached 30.4 trillion VND, accounting for 0.9% and increasing by 9.5%, of which tourism and travelling revenue of Thanh Hoa increased by 21.4%; Ho Chi Minh City increased by 12.7%; Ba Ria – Vung Tau increased by 11.1%; Quang Ninh increased by 11%; Hanoi increased by 7.4%.

Revenue from other services in 2015 was estimated at 370.3 trillion VND, accounting for 11.4% and increasing by 7%, of which some provinces had a good increase in service revenue over the same period last year: Ho Chi Minh City increased by 12.2%; Tien Giang increased by 12.2%; Quang Tri increased by 12%; Vinh Phuc increased by 10.9%; Hanoi increased by 8.8%; Hung Yen increased by 8.7%; Tuyen Quang increased by 7.4%.

Passengers, frieght transport and telecommunication

Passenger transport this year was estimated at 3283.1 million passengers, an increase of 7.7% and 143 billion passengers.kilometers, an increase of 7.9% compared to 2014. Passengers carried by roadways for the whole year was estimated to reach 3099.2 million visitors, up 7.9% and 105 billion passengers.km, up 8.5%; inland waterways reached 146.5 million passengers, an increase of 4% and 2.5 billion passengers-kilometers, an increase of 6.5%; airways reached 20.7 million passengers, up 7.9% and 31.1 billion passengers.km, up 7.2%; seaways reached 5.4 million passengers, up 5.3% and 267.4 million passengers.km, up 4.9%; railways reached 11.2 million passengers, a reduction of 5.3% and 4.2 billion passengers.km, a fall of 0.3%.

Freight carriage in 2015 was estimated at 1133.9 million tons, up 6% and 226.8 billion tons-kilometers, up 3.1% over the previous year, of which domestic transport reached 1102 million tons, up 6.1% and 98.8 billion tons.km, up 6.9%; oversea transport reached 31.9 million tons, up 3.8% and 128 billion tons.km, up 0.3%. Freight carried roadways reached 874 million tons, up 6.6% and 50.1 billion tons.km, up 6.9%; inland waterway reached 194.6 million tons, up 4.5% and 39.9 billion tons.km, up 4.9%; seaways reached 58.4 million tons, up 4% and 132 billion tons.km, up 1.4%; railways reached 6.7 million tons, down 7.1% and 4.2 billion tons.km, down 2.5%.

Revenue from telecommunications activities in 2015 was estimated at 335 trillion VND, up 2.1% compared to 2014; Profit was estimated at 56 trillion VND, up 51.3%. The total number of mobile phone subscribers this year was estimated at 127 million, down 7.3% compared to 2014; fixed phone subscribers were estimated 5.9 million, down 7.8%; Broadband Internet subscribers were estimated at 10.5 million subscribers, up 11%.

Foreign visitors to Vietnam

Foreign visitors to Vietnam in December were estimated at 760.8 thousand, increasing by 2.6% over the previous month. This month was the 6th month in consecutive that foreign visitors to Vietnam had increased since July 2015 (after 13 consecutive months of decline). Compared to the same period in 2014, foreign visitors to our country in the month increased by 15%, of which seaways had the largest increase with 145%.

In terms of continents, Asian visitors increased by 5% over the previous month, of which the main markets increased, as follows: South Korea by 13.9%, Cambodia by 8.3%, Malaysia by 31.3%, Singapore by 46.7%, Thailand by 24.8%. Compared to December 2014, visitors from Cambodia, Malaysia and other Asian countries fell; visitors from other major markets increased.

For American market, visitors from the US in the month increased by 6% over the previous month, visitors from Canada fell by 5.1%; other countries in the Americas fell by 30.2% over the previous month. However, compared to the same period in 2014, visitors from this continent increased by 17.9%.

Visitors to our country during the month from most major markets in Europe decreased compared to the previous month, particularly the Nordic market such as Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Russia increased. Compared to December 2014, the number of visitors from Europe generally increased.

Visitors from Australia and New Zealand in December increased by 28.1% and 5.2% over the previous month, while visitors from other markets fell sharply. Compared to December 2014, visitors from Australia dropped 3.8%, bringing visitors from all over Oceania to reduce by 3.8% as Australian visitors accounted for over 90% of all Oceanian visitors to Vietnam in the month.

For the whole year of 2015, foreign visitors to Vietnam were estimated at 7943.7 thousand, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous year and this was the first year that visitors to Vietnam had decreased since 2009. Visitors come by airways increased by 0.8% compared to the previous year, by roadway decreased by 6.5% mainly due to the decrease of 3 neighboring countries: China decreased by 8.5%, Cambodia decreased by 43.8 %, Laos decreased by 16.6%. Visitors arrivied by seaway this year increased sharply with 27.5%.

In terms of markets, visitors from five Southeast Asian markets (Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Philippines, Thailand) and China all decreased compared to the same period last year, of which China was 1780.9 thousand, down 8.5%; Cambodia 227.1 thousand, down 43.8%; Indonesia 62.2 thousand persons, down 9.3%; Thailand 214.6 thousand, down 13.1%; Laos 114 thousand, down 16.6%; Philippines 99.8 thousand, down 3.5%. Visitors from Malaysia were 346.6 thousand, an increase of 4.1%; Singapore was 236.5 thousand, an increase of 16.9%.

Visitors from Europe were estimated at 1367.9 thousand people, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year, of which some countries had passengers increased as follows: England 212.8 thousand, up 5.2%; Germany 149.1 thousand, an increase of 4.7%; Netherlands 53 thousand, up 7.8%; Spain 44.9 thousand, up 10.4%; Italy 40.3 thousand, an increase of 10.6%. Some countries had visitors to our country reduced: Russia 338.9 thousand, down 7.1%; France 211.6 thousand, down 1%; Sweden 32 thousand, down 1.4%. The implementation of visa exemption policies for citizens of five European countries was one of the reasons for the increase in the number of visitors from these countries to Vietnam.

Visitors from the Americas reached 647.7 thousand, an increase of 5% over the same period in 2014, of which visitors from the United States reached 491.2 thousand, an increase of 10.7%. Visitors from Oceania reached 341.4 thousand, down 5.1%, of which visitors from Australia accounted for 303.7 thousand, down 5.4%. Visitors from Africa reached 27.2 thousand, an increase of 44.3%.

Compared to other countries in the region, in general, the number of international visitors to Vietnam was much lower: In 2014 Malaysia received 27.4 million visitors, Thailand 24.8 million, Singapore was 15.1 million, and Indonesia was 9.4 million, while Vietnam had only nearly 8 million. The reason for low increase in international visitors to Vietnam was mainly because it had not attracted many visitors for the purpose of tourism, sightseeing and work purposes as developing countries did.

II. MACROECONOMICS STABILIZATION AND INFLATION CONTROL

  1. Construction and development investment

Construction

Although construction activities this year still faced some difficulties in planning, management capacity and site clearance, there were some advantages as follows: the reduced interest rate adjustment policy supported enterprises, organizations and individuals to access loans. Prices of construction materials maintained stably along with the warming of the real estate activities to make advantages in the implementation of projects and sites. Many housing development projects completed and handed over in the year, own-occupied constructed housing activities increased sharply, contributing to improving the production value of the sector.

Construction production value in 2015 at current prices was estimated at 974.4 trillion VND, including: State sector reached 82.1 trillion VND, accounting for 8.4%; non-state sector gained 830.5 trillion VND, making up 85.2%; FDI sector was 61.8 trillion VND, representing 6.4%. In the total production value, the value of production and construction of housing projects achieved 374.2 trillion VND; works of non-residential houses witnessed 156.7 trillion VND; civil engineering works reached 318.2 trillion VND; specialized construction activities reached 125.3 trillion VND.

Construction production value in 2015 at comparative prices in 2010 was estimated at 777.5 trillion VND, up 11.2% compared to 2014, including: State sector reached 66.9 trillion VND, expanding by 6.4%; non-state sector reached 660.8 trillion VND, rising 12.1%; foreign invested sector reached 49.8 trillion VND, increasing by 7.2%. In the total production value, the value of production of housing construction increased by 12.4%; non-residential buildings reduced by 5.6%; civil engineering projects expanded by 20.1%; specialized construction activities jumped up 11.7%.

Development Investment

In 2015, the overall project of restructuring the economy continued to be implemented, including: restructuring of investment and reduction of public investment, decreasing the proportion and improving the efficiency of the state capital, finalizing investment institutions in order to strongly mobilize social resources for development investment. The effective implementation of important legal documents in investment activities: Law on public investment, Investment Law (amended), Enterprise Law (amended), Bidding Law, Decree on Investment in the form of public-private partnerships (PPP) … contributed to strengthen management and improve investment efficiency.

Besides, the ministries, line-ministries and authorities implemented to enhance mobilization of resources and diversify forms of investment, as well as focusing on directing and removing difficulties to accelerate the disbursement progress of development investment according to the assigned plan, especially programs/project using ODA and preferential loans. The investment legal environment which was renewed and gradually improved, contributed to attract foreign direct investment in the trend of improving the capital quality,  encouraging high-tech and environmental-friendly projects, manufacturing competitive products, participating in global production chains, prioritizing developed auxiliary technology projects, contributing to impulse the economic growth.

The realized development investment in 2015 at current prices was estimated at 1,367.2 trillion VND, an increase of 12% compared to 2014 and an equivalent to 32.6% of GDP, including: State sector capital reached 519.5 trillion VND, accounting for 38% of total capital and going up 6.7% over the previous year; non-state capital gained 529.6 trillion VND, making up 38.7% and rising 13%; foreign direct investment capital achieved 318.1 trillion VND, sharing 23.3% and jumping up 19.9%.

The growth rate of the realized investment

in the years of 2013, 2014 and 2015 in comparison with the previous year

(At current price)

                                                                                                %

2013 2014 2015
Total 108.4 111.5 112.0
State sector 108.7 110.2 106.7
Non-state sector 107.1 113.6 113.0
   FDI sector 109.9 110.5 119.9

In the investment capital of the State sector, capital from the State budget in 2015 was estimated at VND 220.4 trillion, equaling 100.6% of the yearly plan and up 6.1% compared to 2014, including have:

– The capital under central management reached 43 trillion VND, equaling 105.6% of the yearly plan and increasing by 4.5% over the previous year, of which the implemented capital under management of Ministry of Transportation was 7,299 billion VND, equaling 106.2% and rising 19%; Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 3,008 billion VND, equaling 105.2% and decreasing by 7.5%; Ministry of Construction 1,761 billion VND, equaling 113.7% and going down 6.3%; Ministry of Health 1,682 billion VND, equaling 106.3% and growing up 63.5%; Ministry of Education and Training 862 billion VND, equaling 101.3% and expanding by 25.1%; Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 700 billion VND, equaling 102% and reducing 1.5%; Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism 584 billion VND, equaling 99.6% and increasing by 16.2%; Ministry of Industry and Trade 430 billion VND, equaling 99.7% and jumping up 21.5%; Ministry of Science and Technology 330 billion VND, equaling 111.5% and spreading 15.2%; Ministry of Information and Communications 191 billion VND, equaling 105.5% and going down 9.9%.

– The capital under local management reached 177.4 trillion VND, equaling 99.5% of the yearly plan and climbing up 6.5% compared to 2014. In particular, the state budget capital at provincial level reached 121.8 trillion VND, equaling 94.5% and climbing up 6.1%; the state budget capital at district-level witnessed 45.3 trillion VND, equaling 110% and increasing by 9.1%; the state budget capital at the commune level achieved 10.3 trillion VND, equaling 124.1% and expanding by 0.5%. Some provinces with large implemented investment were as follows: Ha Noi reached 21.7 trillion VND, equaling 107.7% of the yearly plan and falling 9.3% compared to the previous year; Ho Chi Minh city 18.8 trillion VND, equaling 86.2% and rising 8.3%; Quang Ninh 6.2 trillion VND, equaling 87.3% and rising 57.2%; Binh Duong 5.2 trillion VND, equaling 104.9% and climbing up 16.7%; Vinh Phuc 5 trillion VND, equaling 96.2% and going up 35.1%; Nghe An 4.9 trillion VND, equaling 103.6% and spreading 7.1%; Hai Phong 4.4 trillion VND, equaling 183.6% and increasing by 25.1%.

Foreign direct investment from the beginning of the year to 15th December, 2015 attracted 2013 newly licensed projects with a registered capital of 15.58 billion USD, an increase of 26.8% in number of projects and a decrease of 0.4% in capital compared to the same period in 2014. Besides, 814 projects which were licensed in previous years were granted additional capital of 7.18 billion USD. Thus, the total registered capital of newly licensed projects and supplementary capital achieved 22.76 billion USD, a growth of 12.5% ​​compared to 2014. The realized FDI in 2015 was estimated at 14.5 billion USD, a rise of 17.4% over the previous year.

The manufacturing activity attracted the largest foreign investment with registered capital of 15.23 billion USD, accounting for 66.9% of the total registered capital; the production of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply reached 2,809.3 million USD, accounting for 12.4%; real estate activities gained 2,394.7 million USD, making up 10.5%; the other sectors gained 2,320.1 million USD, representing 10.2%.

In the whole country, 48 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government had newly licensed foreign direct investment projects in 2015, of which Ho Chi Minh city was the lead with a registered capital of 2,811.7 USD  million, accounting for 18% of total newly registered capital; followed by Tra Vinh with 2,526.8 million USD, making up 16.2%; Binh Duong with 2465.8 million USD, comprising 15.8%; Dong Nai 1,471.9 million USD, representing 9.4%; Ha Noi 910.7 million USD, accounting for 5.8%; Hai Phong with 573.1 million USD, making up 3.7%; Tay Ninh 502.9 million USD, accounting for 3.2%; Quang Ninh 373.9 million USD, accounting for 2.4%.

Among 58 countries and territories with new investment projects in Viet Nam in 2015, South Korea ranked the top with 2,678.5 million USD, accounting for 17.2% of the total newly registered capital; followed by Malaysia 2,447.5 million USD, comprising 15.7%; Samoa 1,314 million USD, representing 8.4%; Japan 1285 million USD, sharing 8.2%; United Kingdom 1,265.7 million USD, making up 8.1%; Singapore 1,035 million USD, accounting for 6.6%; Taiwan 940.4 million USD, representing 6%; British Virgin Islands 697.8 million USD, making up 4.5%; China 665.5 million USD, accounting for 4.3%.

  1. State budget revenue and expenditure

              The state budget revenue from the beginning of the year to 15th December, 2015 was estimated at 884.8 trillion VND, equaling 97.1% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenue was 657 trillion VND, equaling 102, 9%; revenue from crude oil 62.4 trillion VND, equaling 67.1%; budget balance revenue from import and export achieved 160 trillion VND, equaling 91.4%. In domestic revenue, many revenues achieved quite well and exceeded the yearly estimates: revenue of environmental protection tax reached 24.1 trillion VND, equaling 186.1% of the yearly estimate; land use fee reached 54.2 trillion VND, equaling 139.1%; registration fee gained 21 trillion VND, equaling 135.9%; personal income tax witnessed 53.2 trillion VND, equaling 103.7%; taxes on trade and non-state services achieved 119.7 trillion VND, equaling 100.1%. Particularly, tax on FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil) reached 128 trillion VND, equaling 89.8% of the yearly estimate; tax on state-owned enterprises was 204.2 trillion VND, equaling 92.5%.

              Total state budget expenditure from the beginning of the year to 15th December, 2015 was estimated at 1,064.5 trillion VND, equaling 92.8% of the yearly estimate, of which expenditure on development investment gained 162 trillion VND, equaling 83.1% (expenditure on construction investment was 157.5 trillion VND, equaling 82.7%); expenditure on socio-economic development, national defense and security, and administrative management reached 745 trillion VND, equaling 97.1%; debt and aid payment recorded 148.3 trillion VND, equaling 98.9%.

  1. Banking and insurance activities

As of 18th December, 2015, credit growth reached 17.02% compared to the end of 2014, the highest growth since 2011; capital mobilization of credit institutions expanded by 13.49%; total payment facilities increased by 13.6%. The liquidity of the commercial banking system continued to be improved, ensuring the capacity and payment of the system, contributing inflation control and macroeconomics stabilization. The average exchange rate of VND against USD remained stably after strongly fluctuating in the middle of August 2015.

The insurance market in 2015 had many activities being aimed at improving the quality of services and products. During the year, insurance enterprises made great efforts in providing new insurance packages with attractive benefits to customers. Mechanisms and policies in insurance activities also were gradually improved and more suitable for all participants. Total premium revenue achieved a positive growth, estimating to increase by 12.6% compared to 2014, of which life insurance premiums expanded by 15%; Non-life insurance premiums rose 10%. In addition, the total insurance fee through brokers was estimated at 7,000 billion VND, climbing up 16.2%.

  1. Export and import of goods and services

Export of goods

Export turnover in November this year reached 13,894 million USD, 406 million USD lower than the estimated figure, of which rice was 77 million USD lower; fishery products and crude oil were 49 million USD lower; wood and wooden products were 22 million USD lower; phones and their parts were 16 million USD lower; vegetables and fruits were 15 million USD lower; cashew nuts were 12 million USD lower; coffee was 11 million USD lower than estimated.

Export turnover in December was estimated at 14.20 billion USD, increasing by 2.2% over the previous month, because some major export products increased such as: Textile and garment products increased by 17%; footwear increased by 8.7%; wood and wooden products rose by 10.4%; crude oil rose by 47%, of which the domestic economic sector gained 4.1 billion USD, increased by 5%; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 10.1 billion USD, rose by 1.1%. Compared to the same period last year, export turnover in December increased by 10.4%, of which the FDI sector (including crude oil) increased by 18.3%; domestic economic sector decreased by 5.2%. Some goods with increased turnover over the same period: phones and their parts increased by 35.3%; electronic goods, computer and their parts grew by 39%; machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 15.8%; Notably, some agricultural products increased both in volume and turnover over the same period: Cashew nuts increased by 23% in volume and 32.4% in turnover; pepper increased by 45% and 67.1%; rice increased by 146% and 120.7% respectively.

Generally for 2015, export turnover was estimated at 162.4 billion USD, rose by 8.1% compared to 2014, the lowest increase in the last 5 years[10]. This year’s export price index decreased by 3.8%, if excluding price factor, export turnover this year increased by 12.4% (in 2014, the export price index increased by 0.79%, if excluding the factor export turnover it increased by 12.9%). Export turnover of FDI sector was estimated at 115.1 billion USD, rose by 13.8% over the previous year, accounted for 70.9% of the total export turnover, contributing 9.3 percentage points to overall export growth. If excluding crude oil, the FDI sector reached 111.3 billion USD, rose by 18.5%. The domestic sector was estimated at 47.3 billion USD, dropped 3.5% from the previous year (after 5 years of continuous growth), make export growth in 2015 reduce by 1.2 percentage points.

The turnover of some main products of processing and assembling group increased highly over the same period: phones and their parts increased by 29.9%, electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 38.2%; textiles and garments increased by 8.2%; footwear increased by 16.2%. The main contribution to the overall increase was mainly the goods of the FDI sector with a high proportion such as: phones and their parts accounted for 99.7%; electronic goods, computer and their parts accounted for 98.2%; machinery, instrument and accessory accounted for 89.5%; footwear accounted for 79.7%; textiles and garments accounted for 60.4%. On the contrary, commodities of agricultural and mineral products fell sharply in both volume and turnover such as: Coffee decreased by 24.3% in volume and 27.8% in turnover; tea decreased by 6% and 7%; crude oil fell by 0.6% and 47.3%; coal decreased by 76.1% and 66.7%, respectively. Fishery products’ export turnover decreased by 15.6% over the same period. Although the export volume of rubber products increased by 7.2% compared to the previous year, due to falling prices in the world market, export turnover decreased by 13.6%.

Regarding the structure of exported goods in 2015, the proportion of heavy and mineral products group was estimated at 74 billion USD, rose by 11.9% compared to 2014, accounted for 45.5% of the total export turnover ( increased by 1.5 percentage points compared to 2014), of which: phones and their parts reached 30.6 billion USD, rose by 29.9% and accounted for 18.9% of total export turnover (rose by 3.2 percentage points); the group of light industrial and handicraft products reached 64.8 billion USD, increasing by 9.7%, accounted for 39.9% (rising by 0.6 percentage points); agricultural and forestry products were estimated at 17 billion USD, dropped 1% and accounted for 10.5% (dropped 1 percentage point); fishery products were estimated at 6.6 billion USD, dropped 15.6% and accounted for 4.1% (dropped 1.1 percentage points).

Regarding the export goods market in 2015, the United States was Vietnam’s largest export market with an estimated turnover of 33.5 billion USD, rose by 17% compared to 2014 and accounted for 20.6% of the total export turnover, of which turnover of some main products in this market increased: textile and garment products increased by 11.7%; footwear increased by 23.9%; phones and their parts increased 87.4%; electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 35.1%. the following was the EU market with 30.9 billion USD, rose by 10.7% and accounted for 19% of total export turnover, of which: phones and their parts increased by 17.7%; textiles and garments increased by 3.7%; footwear increased by 12.6%; electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 36.2%. ASEAN market was estimated at 18.3 billion USD, v by 4.2%; of which: phones and their parts decreased by 11.6%; crude oil decreased by 23.3%; iron and steel decreased by 16%. The Chinese market was estimated at 17 billion USD, rose by 13.7%, of which vegetables and fruits increased by 179%; textiles and garments by 41.5%; footwear increased by 48%. Japan was estimated at 14.1 billion USD, dropped 4%, of which fishery products decreased by 14%; crude oil dropped 58%. South Korea was estimated to reach 9 billion USD, rose by 25.2%, of which phones and their parts increase 348%; electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 94%.

Exports in 2015 were lower than the previous year and lower than the set plan (a rise of 10%) mainly because: (i) Export price index of many main commodities fell sharply compared to the previous year, average reduction of 3.8%, of which: Crude oil fell by 53%, petroleum fell by 49.8%, rubber decreased by 24.1%, rubber products fell by 14%; coal decreased declined by 10%, rice reduced by 8.1%, coffee fell by 6.4%, vegetables and fruits declined by 3.4%; fishery products decreased by 2.5%, other ore and minerals fell by 2.4% …; (ii) Export volume of many agricultural products fell sharply: Coffee decreased by 24.3%; pepper decreased by 14.7%; tea decreased by 6%.

Import of goods

Import turnover in November this year reached 13,631 million USD, 869 million USD lower than the estimated figure, of which electronic goods, computer and their parts were 207 million USD lower; machinery, instrument and accessory were 204 million USD lower; other means of transport and spare parts were 199 million USD lower; phones and their parts were 120 million USD lower; iron and steel were 36 million USD lower; fabric was 30 million USD lower than estimated.

December import turnover was estimated at 14.50 billion USD, rose by 6.4% over the previous month, of which FDI sector reached 8.5 billion USD, rose by 7.5%; domestic sector reached 6 billion USD, rose by 4.8%. Import turnover of some products increased such as: Animal feed and auxiliary materials increased by 36.9%; machinery, instrument and accessory by 13.9%; plastics by 9.2%; fabric by 3.3%. Compared to the same period last year, the import turnover in December increased by 5.2%, of which the FDI sector increased by 8.3%; domestic economic sector increased by 1%. Import turnover of some products for production and processing increased over the same period last year such as: plastic products increased by 21.1%; machinery, instrument and accessory rose by 9.1%; fabric increased by 11.9%; electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 3.9%.

Generally for 2015, import turnover was estimated at 165.6 billion USD, rose by 12% over the previous year, of which the FDI sector reached 98 billion USD, rose by 16.4%; domestic economic sector reached 67.6 billion USD, rose by 6.3%. If excluding price factor (import price index decreased by 5.8%), import turnover in 2015 increased by 18.9%, higher than the increase of 13.2% in 2014 if excluding price factor (import price index in 2014 decreased by 1.02%). Import prices of some goods fell sharply compared to the previous year: Petroleum and oil fell by 40.4%; iron and steel fell by 15.6%; plastic reduced by 13%; fertilizer decreased by 14.1%.

Import turnover of some products for production increased year on year: machinery, instrument and accessory reached 27.6 billion USD, rose by 23.1%; fabric reached 10.2 billion USD, rose by 8.2%; auxiliary materials for textile, garment and footwear reached 5 billion USD, rose by 7.5%; cotton reached 1.6 billion USD, rose by 12.4%. Some products with large import turnover increased over the previous year: electronic goods, computer and their parts reached 23.3 billion USD, rose by 24.2%; phones and their parts reached 10.6 billion USD, rose by 25.4%; automobile reached 6 billion USD, increased by 59%, of which, completely built-up cars reached 3 billion USD, increased by 87.7%.

Regarding the structure of imported goods, the group of capital goods was estimated at 151.2 billion USD, rose by 12.3% compared to 2014 and accounted for 91.3% of the total turnover, rose by 0.2 percentage points. compared with 2014, of which machinery, instrument and accessory, means of transport and spare parts reached 67.5 billion USD, rose by 19.9% and accounted for 40.8%, rose by 2.7 percentage points (due to a sharp increase in the number of commodity groups such as electronic goods, computer and their parts by 24.2%, telephones and components by 25.4%; machinery, instrument and accessory by 23.1%); materials and fuel groups were estimated at 83.7 billion USD, rose by 6.8% and accounted for 50.5%, dropped 2.5 percentage points. Consumer goods was estimated at 14.4 billion USD, rose by 10.4% and accounted for 8.7%, dropped 0.2 percentage points.

Regarding the imported goods market, China was still the largest import market of Vietnam in 2015 with an estimated turnover of 49.3 billion USD, rose by 12.9% over the previous year and accounted for 28.8% of the total import turnover, of which imports of machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 15.6%; phones and their parts increased by 11.5%; electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 15.2%. The following was South Korea with an estimated turnover of 27.7 billion USD, an increase of 27.4%; accounted for 16.7%, of which electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 35%; machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 64.8%; phone increased by 79.5%. ASEAN market was estimated to reach 23.8 billion USD, rose by 3.8% and accounted for 14.4%, of which petroleum rose by 5.9%; machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 16.7%. Japan was estimated at 14.4 billion USD, rose by 11.6%, of which electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 23.8%; machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 26.6%. EU was estimated at 10.3 billion USD, rose by 16.3%; of which machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 16.7%; pharmaceuticals rose by 15.2%; means of transport and spare parts increased by 133.8%. Imports from the US market were estimated at 8 billion USD, rose by 27%, of which electronic goods, computer and their parts increased by 73.1%; machinery, instrument and accessory increased by 10.2%.

In November, trade surplus was 263 million USD (the estimated figure of trade deficit was 200 million USD). The trade deficit in December was estimated at 300 million USD. Generally for 2015, the trade balance (export by FOB price, import by CIF price) fell into a deficit with an estimated trade deficit of 3.2 billion USD (after 3 consecutive years of surplus[11]). In addition to the two major partners, the US and EU, which still maintained the trade surplus of 25.5 billion USD and 20.6 billion USD respectively, other major markets were tending to increase the trade deficit, of which trade deficit from China was estimated at 32.3 billion USD, rose by 12.5% over the previous year; South Korea was estimated at 18.7 billion USD, an increase of 28%; ASEAN was estimated at 5.5 billion USD, rose by 44.7%. Notably, the Japanese market after many years of trade surplus, saw a trade deficit in 2015 of more than 300 million USD. Trade deficit in 2015 completely belonged to the domestic economic sector with a trade deficit of this area of 20.3 billion USD, while the FDI sector witnessed a trade surplus of 17.1 billion USD.

With both export and import turnover calculated by FOB price (if excluding 9 billion USD of transport and the import insurance fee calculated into service imports), the trade balance of goods in 2015 was estimated to saw a trade surplus of 5.8 billion USD, dropped 44% compared to 2014.

Import and export of services

In 2015, export turnover of services was estimated at 11.2 billion USD, increasing by 2.1% compared to 2014, of which tourism was estimated at 7.3 billion USD, accounting for 65% of total turnover and decreasing by 0.4% compared to 2014.

Import turnover of services this year was estimated at 15.5 billion USD, rose by 6.9% over the previous year, of which majority belonged to import of transport and insurance import services with 9 billion USD, accounted for 58 %.

Service trade deficit in 2015 was estimated at 4.3 billion USD, rose by 16% compared to 2014. Thus, the balance of trade in goods and services in 2015 was estimated to saw a trade surplus of 1.5 billion USD, dropped 77% compared to in 2014, of which trade surplus of goods was 5.8 billion USD, trade deficit of services was 4.3 billion USD.

  1. Price index

Consumer price index (CPI)

December’s CPI this year increased by 0.02% compared to the previous month, of which: Housing and construction materials increased by 0.5% due to the increase in liquefied gas price as of December 1st, 2015 and the increased need for repairing house in the last months of the year; garment, hats, and footwear rose by 0.32% due to an increase in winter shopping demand; group of beverages and tobacco, food and catering services increased by 0.16% (food increased by 0.45% due to increased demand for rice for export; food grew by 0.13%); medicine and medical service went up by 0.14%; education increased by 0.04%. Price index of some groups of goods and services decreased, particularly: transport by 1.57%, mainly due to the reduction of domestic petroleum and oil prices as of November 18th, 2015 and December 3rd, 2015 ( making petroleum price index drop 3.39%); household appliances by 0.1%; culture, entertainment and tourism by 0.05%; postal services and telecommunication by 0.03%.

CPI in December 2015 increased by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2014, the average monthly CPI increased by 0.05%. The average CPI in 2015 increased by 0.63% compared to the average in 2014. The CPI increase in December 2015 compared to the same period in 2014 and the average CPI increase in 2015 compared to the average in 2014 were the lowest in the last 14 years[12] and much lower than the CPI target to increase by 5%. Consumer price index in 2015 increased slowly mainly due to several reasons:

– The supply of domestic food and foodstuff was plentiful; the world’s food production increased with the competition of major rice exporting countries like Thailand and India, so that Vietnam’s rice exports situation were more difficult, food prices were always lower than those of other countries. On average, in 11 months of this year, Vietnam’s rice export price decreased by 30.74 USD/ton over the same period last year. Rice export was difficult that make the wholesale and retail price of rice in the country decrease; the price index of food groups in 2015 decreased by 1.06% compared to 2014.

 – Fuel prices in the world market recently dropped sharply[13] leading to a decrease in domestic petroleum prices and making the price index of housing, construction materials decline by 1.62% and transport groups in 2015 decreased by 11.92% compared to the previous year. Average domestic liquefied gas price in 2015 decreased by 18.6% compared to 2014.

– Ministries, line ministries and localities implemented actively and effectively Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 3rd, 2015 of the Government on main tasks and solutions to direct the implementation of the social economic development plan. In addition, market and prices management were paid attention to by authorities at all levels and sectors. The level of price adjustment of state-controlled commodity groups such as education and health care services was also lower than in previous years[14].

Core inflation in December 2015 increased by 0.11% over the previous month and by 1.69% over the same period last year. The average core inflation in 2015 increased by 2.05% compared to the previous year.

Gold price index and US dollar price index

Gold price index in December 2015 decreased by 2.8% compared to the previous month; dropped 4.97% compared to the same period in 2014; the average in 2015 decreased by 4.73% compared to 2014. The US dollar price index in December 2015 increased by 0.69% over the previous month and by 5.34% compared to the same period in 2014; the average in 2015 increased by 3.16% compared to 2014.

Producer price index

The producer price index of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in 2015 decreased by 0.28% compared to the previous year, of which the producer price index of agricultural products increased by 0.48%; producer price index of forestry products increased by 4.31% and fishery products decreased by 3.39%. The producer price index of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the fourth quarter decreased by 0.17% compared to the previous period and decreased by 2.43% compared to the same period last year.

The producer price index of industrial products this year decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous year, of which the producer price index of mining products decreased by 11.24%; producer price index of manufacturing products increased by 0.04%; electricity and electricity distribution price index increased by 5.78%; clean water, waste, waste water and waste treatment increased by 2.79%. The producer price index of industrial products decreased by 0.49% in the fourth quarter and decreased by 1.34% compared to the same period last year.

The transport and storage price index in 2015 decreased by 3.26% compared to 2014, mainly due to the sharp decline in railway and roadway service price index at 6.02%. Other transportation services price index slightly increased or decreased: price index of storage and transport support services increased by 1.36%; inland waterway decreased by 2.93%; particularly, price index of airway was stable. The transport price index in the fourth quarter of this year decreased by 1.34% compared to the previous period and decreased by 4.36% compared to the same period last year.

The producer price index of services in 2015 increased by 1.28% compared to the previous year, of which the price index for accommodation and catering services rose by 2.97%; information and communication by 0.41%; education and training by 5.84%; health and social work activities by 1.93%; professional, scientific and technological activities by 1.7%; administrative and support service activities increased by 1.55%. The service producer price index in the fourth quarter increased by 0.15% compared to the previous period and increased by 1.09% over the same period last year.

Merchandise export and import price index

In 2015, merchandise export price index decreased by 3.79% compared to the previous year, of which some commodities saw a sharp decrease in price index: crude oil decreased by 52.98%; petrol and oil of all kinds decreased by 49.83%; rubber decreased by 24.13%; coal decreased by 10.04%; electric wires and cables decreased by 8.2%; iron and steel fell 7.55%. The merchandise export price index in the fourth quarter decreased by 1.47% compared to the previous period and decreased by 3.58% compared to the same period last year.

The merchandise import price index in 2015 decreased by 5.82% compared to 2014, of which import price index of some commodities had a sharp decrease: liquefied gas by 42.35%; petrol and oil of all kinds by 40.36%; rubber by 17.91%; iron and steel by 15.55%; fertilizers of all kinds by 14.06%; plastic materials by 12.99%; animal feed and raw materials by 10.74%. Merchandise import price index in the fourth quarter decreased by 3.11% compared to the previous period and declined by 9.66% compared to the same period last year.

Merchandise term of trade[15] this year increased by 2.15% compared to the previous year, of which the term of trade of fishery products increased by 4.32%; chemicals increased by 13.13%; iron and steel increased by 9.48%; wood and wood products by 6.8%. The merchandise term of trade in the fourth quarter increased by 1.7% compared to the previous period and increased by 6.73% compared to the same period last year.

III. SOME SOCIAL ISSUES

  1. Population

The average population in 2015 of the whole country was estimated at 91.70 million persons, an increase of 974.9 thousand persons, equivalent to an increase of 1.07% compared to 2014, including 31.45 million urban population, accounting for 34 , 30%; 60.25 million rural population, accounting for 65.70%; male population of 45.25 million, accounting for 49.35%; female population of 46.45 million persons, representing 50.65%.

According to the 2015 Population Change and Family Planning Survey, the total fertility rate this year was estimated at 2.10 children/woman, continuing to remain at replacement level fertility. Crude birth rate was 16.20‰; crude death rate was 6.81‰. The infant mortality rate (the number of under-1- year children of death/ 1000 live births) was 14.73‰. The under-5 children mortality rate (the number of children under 5 years old per 1000 live births) was 22.12 ‰. The average life expectancy of the national population in 2015 was 73.3 years, of which 70.7 years for males and 76.1 for females.

  1. Labor, employment

The labor force aged 15 and over of the whole country as of January 1, 2016 was 54.61 million persons, an increase of 185 thousand persons compared to the same period in 2014, of which male workers accounted for 51.7%; female workers accounted for 48.3%. By that time, the labor force in the working age was estimated at 48.19 million persons, an increase of 506.1 thousand persons compared to the same period last year, of which male workers accounted for 54%; female workers accounted for 46%.

Laborers aged 15 and over working in economic activities in 2015 were estimated at 52.9 million, an increase of 142 thousand people compared to 2014. Of the total number of employees aged 15 and over working in 2015, agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 44.3% (46.3% in 2014); industry and construction sector accounted for 22.9% (2014 was 21.5%); service sector accounted for 32.8% (32.2% in 2014). Workers aged 15 and over working in 2015 in urban areas accounted for 31.2% (2014 was 30.4%); 68.8% in rural areas (69.6% in 2014). The rate of trained workers in 2015 was estimated at 21.9%, higher than the 19.6% of the previous year, of which trained workers in urban areas reached 38.3% (year 2014 was 35.9%); 13.9% was in rural areas (2014 was 12.0%).

The unemployment rate of workers in the working age group in 2015 was 2.31% (2.18% in 2013 and 2.10% in 2014), of which urban areas were 3.29% (2013 was 3.59%, 3.40% in 2014); 1.83% in rural areas (1.54% in 2013 and 1.49% in 2014). The prosperous economy with strong growth of industry sector and services sector was one of the main reasons for reducing unemployment rate in urban areas. Unemployment rate of workers in the working age decreased gradually by the quarter (the first quarter was 2.43%; the second quarter was 2.42%; the third quarter was 2.35%; the fourth quarter was 2.12%) and decreased mainly in urban areas (the first quarter was 3.43%; the second quarter was 3.93%; the third quarter was 3.38%; the fourth quarter was 2.91%).

The unemployment rate of young people (aged 15-24 years old) in 2015 was 6.85% (6.17% in 2013 and 6.26% in 2014), of which urban areas were 11.20% (2013 was 11.12%; 2014 was 11.06%); the figure in rural areas was 5.20% (4.62% in 2013 and 4.63% in 2014). The unemployment rate of workers aged 25 and over in 2015 was 1.27% (1.21% in 2013 and 1.15% in 2014), of which urban areas were 1.83% (year 2013 was 2.29%, 2.08% in 2014); 0.99% in rural areas (0.72% in 2013 and 0.71% in 2014).

The underemployment rate of working age workers in 2015 was 1.82% (2.75% in 2013 and 2.40% in 2014), of which urban areas were 0.82% (1.48% in 2013 and 1.20% in 2014; 2.32% in rural areas (3.31% in 2013 and 2.96% in 2014). The underemployment rate tended to decrease gradually at the end of the year (the first quarter was 2.43%; the second quarter was 1.80%; the third quarter was 1.62%; the fourth quarter was 1.66%) and the decrease was mainly in rural areas (the first quarter was 3.05%; the second quarter was 2.23%; the third quarter was 2.05%; the fourth quarter was 2.11%).

It was estimated that in 2015, there were 56% of workers in the informal economy in non-agricultural activities[16] (2013: 59.3%; 2014: 56.6%), of which urban area was 47.1% (49.8% in 2013, 46.7% in 2014) and 64.3% in rural areas (67.9% in 2013 and 66.0% in 2014).

  1. Labor productivity

          The social labor productivity[17] of the whole economy in 2015 at current prices was estimated at 79.3 million VND/laborer (equivalent to about 3657 USD/ laborer). At constant prices 2010, the total labor productivity in 2015 was estimated to increase by 6.4% compared to 2014.

The labor productivity of Viet Nam had significantly been improved in the direction of increasing steadily over the years, on average in the period 2006 – 2015 increasing by 3.9% per year, of which the period 2006 – 2010 increased by 3.4% per year; the period 2011-2015 increased by 4.2% per year. The labor productivity in 2015 rose by 23.6% compared to that in 2010, although it was lower than the target set up as an increase of 29%-32%, labor productivity growth rate in the period was higher than that in the period 2006 – 2010 that made contribution to narrow gradually the relative gap compared to labor productivity of[18].

However, the labor productivity of our country was still at a low level compared to other countries in the region and uneven among activities and sectors. The relative gap in labor productivity had decreased significantly, but the absolute gap (difference in labor productivity level) between Vietnam and developed ASEAN countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia had increased[19].

The main cause of the above situation was due to the slow economic restructure and high proportion of labor in agriculture, while the labor productivity in the agricultural sector in our country was still low. Machinery, equipment and technological processes were outdated; the quality, structure and efficiency of labor use had not met the requirements. Organizational, managerial level and efficiency of resource use was still shortcomings, growth was mainly based on the contribution of capital and labor factors, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) was low. In addition, some “bottlenecks” and “barriers” on institutional reforms and administrative procedures had not been resolved.

  1. Living standards and social security

People’s life in 2018 was generally stable, food shortage among farmers significantly decreased compared to the same period in 2014. According to preliminary reports, the whole country witnessed 227.5 thousand households suffering from food shortage in 2015, a year on year fall of 27.8%, corresponding to 944 thousand persons suffering from food shortage, declined by 29.6%. Food shortage occurred mainly in some provinces in the Northern midlands and mountain areas, North Central and Central coastal areas and Central Highlands. Localities with a large number of households suffering from food shortages were Quang Binh with 22.1 thousand households; Cao Bang has 18.6 thousand households, Son La has 17 thousand households; Dien Bien 16.9 thousand households; Dak Lak 13 thousand households; Nghe An 8.3 thousand households; Gia Lai 7.1 thousand households. In order to overcome food shortage, from the beginning of the year, all administrative levels, sectors and organizations from central to local level supported these households with 19.7 thousand tons of food and about 8.5 billion VND. The rate of poverty households was estimated from 7% to 7.2% in 2015, declining by 1.2-1.4 percentage points against 2014.

Attention was continued to be paid to the social security in localities. According to the preliminary report, the total funding for social security and poverty reduction in 2015 was 3967 billion VND, including: 2179 billion VND of gifts and assistances for policy beneficiaries; 1021 billion VND to support poor households and 767 billion VND for hunger-relief and other social reliefs.

According to the National Target Program for sustainable poverty reduction in the period of 2012-2015, by the end of 2015, the state budget spent over 60 trillion VND to support the purchase of health insurance cards for policy beneficiaries of which 70 million poor and ethnic minorities were granted free health insurance cards, 30% of the total number of people in near-poor households participated in health insurance program. Annually, the central budget allocated about 7 trillion VND for the discount on tuition fees for poor students, scholarships for ethnic minority students, semi-boarding students and ethnic boarding schools. In the period of 2011-2015, over 10 million students were supported with tuition fees with a total budget of about 35 trillion VND. The program supported clean water for 15.8 thousand households, built 910 concentrated water infrastructure and arranged 2.7 thousand hectares of production land for ethnic minority households with a total budget of phase 2011-2014 reached nearly 1.3 trillion VND; the budget also spent 5 trillion VND to support 350 thousand poor employees for free vocational training, 10,000 employees from poor districts received vocational training, orientation education and work abroad. Besides, about 100 thousand turns of poor supported free legal aid; 11 million poor households were supported with electricity fee with a budget of over 3.5 trillion VND.

  1. Education and Training

According to preliminary reports, in the school year  2014 – 2015, the number of registered candidates for the national graduation exam of upper secondary schools was 1005.7 thousand candidates. National graduation exam of upper secondary schools graduation rate this year reached 93.4%, down 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous school year; the graduation rate of complementary education was 70.1%, down 18.9 percentage points.

As of late 2015, there were 37 out of 63 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government gained universal preschool education for five-year-old children; all 63 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government achieved at least level of the universal primary education of which 12 localities were recognized as level 2 of the universal primary education.

At the beginning of the school year 2015- 2016, there were 231 thousand kindergarten teachers, 829  thousand classroom teachers in general education, including: 365 thousand primary school teachers, 313 thousand lower secondary school teachers, and 151 thousand upper secondary teachers. In this school, there were 3.9 million children attending kindergartens across the country, 7.7 million primary school pupils, 5.1 million lower secondary school pupils, and 2.4 million of pupils in upper secondary schools.

Vocational training continued to be paid attention to by all levels, sectors and localities. By the end of 2015, there were 1467 vocational training institutions, including 190 vocational colleges; 280 vocational secondary schools; 997 vocational training centers and over 1,000 vocational training institutions with a total of 40.6 thousand vocational teachers. After 5 years of implementing the vocational training development strategy in the 2011-2020 period, there were nearly 7.4 thousand teachers trained and fostered to improve vocational skills; 45 key vocational schools were selected to invest in building high-quality vocational schools according to regional and international advanced standards; 9.2 million persons received vocational training, reaching 95.6% of the set target. Particularly, vocational training and vocational training for less than 3 months attracted over 2.4 million rural laborers according to the Project on vocational training for rural workers by 2020.

  1. Epidemic diseases and food poisoning

In December 2015, the whole country witnessed 8.3 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease 60 thousand viral encephalitis (2 deaths); 32 cases of typhoid; 11 cases of meningococcal meningitis. Particularly, hemorrhagic fever continued to be complicated, especially in the Southern provinces. In the month, there were nearly 20,000 cases of hemorrhagic fever, of which 11 deaths.

In 2015, the whole country witnessed nearly 57 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (6 death); 81.4 thousand cases of hemorrhagic fever (52 deaths); 924 cases of viral encephalitis (26 deaths); 376 cases of typhoid; 131 cases of meningococcal meningitis (5 deaths). Since the beginning of the year, there was no case of new cholera and influenza type A (H5N1).

In the month, 642 cases of HIV infection were detected bringing the total number of alive HIV-infected persons over the country was 231.3 thousand persons as of 17 December 2015, and the number of cases turned to AIDS was 79.7 thousand persons. The number of persons died of HIV/AIDS nationwide was 80.1 thousand persons.

In December, there were 11 food poisoning cases, poisoned 373 persons, of which two deaths). From beginning of the year, there were 140 severe food poisoning cases, poisoned 4273 persons, of which 20 deaths).

  1. Culture and Sport

In 2015, the culture sector successfully organized many activities to celebrate the great holidays of the country and other international cultural activities such as: Celebrating 40 years of Reunification of the Country; 125 years of birth of President Ho Chi Minh; 70 years of August Revolution and National Day; the 27th National Art Photo Exhibition in Hai Phong; 2nd Asia Pacific Poetry Festival; The 21st “Don Ca tai tu” Festival in Long An; World heritage photo exhibition in Thanh Hoa; the 8th International Art Photo Contest in Vietnam; Traditional Music Festival of ASEAN member states in 2015; photo exhibition “ASEAN – 48 years of peace, development and 20 years of Vietnam joining ASEAN”. Besides, cultural activities with the theme of homeland islands continued to be organized and attract the attention of the people.

Preservation and promotion of cultural heritage values was increasingly cared and protected by all levels, branches, social organizations and people. There were many traditional festivals and unique types of folk performances in localities that were restored and honored by the UNESCO. By the end of this year, the UNESCO recognized Viet Nam with 8 cultural and natural heritages, 10 world intangible heritages and 4 world documentary heritage.

The mass sports movement took place enthusiastically throughout the country with many activities: Olympic running day for the people’s health; Sports Competition for Ethnic Minorities in Region II in Kon Tum; The Third traditional Wrestling in Hanoi; Da Nang International Marathon 2015 Hanoi cycling race in 2015; National Family Sports Competition 2015; Phu Dong Healthy Football Association – XIII Milo Cup, Sports festival for students, Sports festival of ethnic minorities nationwide...

Regarding high performance sports, Viet Nam Sport Delegation won 475 gold medals, 355 silver medals and 321 bronze medals in regional, world tournaments. At the 28th Southeast Asian Games (28th SEA Games), Viet Nam Sports Delegation successfully defended the 3rd position out of 11 participating countries  with 73 gold medals, 53 silver medals and 60 bronze medals, breaking 13 SEA Games records.

  1. Traffic accidents

In December (from 16 November to 15 December 2015), there were 1,776 traffic accidents occurred nationwide, including 818 traffic accidents from less serious to more and 958 traffic collisions, causing 700 deaths, 524 injuries and 1,149 slight injuries. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 14% (traffic accidents from less serious to more decreased by 10.2%; the number of traffic collisions decreased by 17%); the number of deaths decreased by 3.3%; the number of injuries dropped 9.7% and the number of slight injuries decreased by 18.1%.

In 2015, there were 22,404 traffic accidents occurred nationwide, including 10,167 traffic accidents from less serious to more and 12,237 traffic collisions, causing 8,671 deaths, 5,984 injuries and 14,572 slight injuries. Compared to the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents this year decreased by 11.5% (the number of traffic accidents from less serious to more decreased by 4.1% and the number of traffic collisions went down by 16.9%); the number of deaths declined by 3.6%; the number of injuries fall by 4.5% and the number of slight injuries decreased by 19.7%. On average 61 traffic accidents occurred a day in 2015 nationwide, including 28 traffic accidents from less serious to more and 33 traffic collisions, caused 24 deaths, 16 injuries and 40 slight injuries.

  1. Damages caused by natural disasters 

According to preliminary reports, in 2015, natural disasters affected 52 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government in the whole country, causing 157 deaths and missing; 199 wounded; 1.1 thousand houses collapsed, swept away and 31 thousand houses were hit by landslide and flooded; 6.8 thousand hectares of rice and 6.6 thousand hectares of arable crops totally damaged; 57 thousand hectares of rice and 26.7 thousand hectares of crops were flooded and damaged; 200 m of dykes, 4.5 km of embankments, 66 km of canals and 341 km of roadways hit by landslides and drifting of motor vehicles; 171 dams and culverts were destroyed and 318 buildings were damaged, 196 medium and high-voltage electric poles and 13 low-voltage electric poles were broken. Localities suffered much from natural disasters: Son La suffered 20 deaths and missing and 21 wounded; 2 thousand houses collapsed, roof ripped-off and flooded; 2.7 thousand hectares of rice and crops were flooded and damaged; Quang Ninh suffered 19 deaths and missing and 32 wounded; 9.5 thousand houses collapsed, roof ripped off and flooded; 8.7 thousand hectares of rice and arable crops were damaged; Thanh Hoa suffered 16 deaths and missing; 3.7 thousand houses collapsed, roof ripped-off and flooded; 12.4 thousand hectares of rice and arable crops were flooded, damaged, etc. The total value of damage caused by natural disasters in the year was estimated at 5.4 trillion VND, of which Quang Ninh suffered 2.7 trillion VND and Thanh Hoa suffered 465 billion VND. According to preliminary reports, the total amount of relief allocated for localities affected by natural disasters from the beginning of the year was nearly 352 billion VND.

  1. Environment protection, fire and explosion prevention

In December 2015, 815 cases of violating regulations of environment protection were found, of which 393 cases were addressed with total fine of over 100 billion VND. In 2015, 10.9 thousand cases of violating regulations of environment protection were found, of which 4.6 thousand cases were addressed with total fine of 358 billion VND.

In December 2015, there were 172 cases of fire and explosion across the country, causing 8 deaths and 11 injuries, with an estimated damage of 28.7 billion VND. In 2015, there were 2,866 cases of fire and explosion across the country causing, 94 deaths and 294 injuries. Total loss was estimated at nearly 905 billion VND.

In general: In the context of complicated world economic developments, domestic production and business faced many difficulties and challenges however our economy in 2015 continued to have positive changes and clear recovery in many areas, achieving moderate growth rates compared to the set targets and compared with the previous years’ growth in the 2011-2015 period. The bright spots in our economic picture in 2015 reflected in relatively stable macro indicators: Inflation was well controlled and kept at low level; monetary and fiscal policies were operated flexibly, effectively and in accordance with market developments; the financial and banking system achieved some initial successes thanks to the implementation of many important measures to improve stability and efficiency in operations; foreign currency reserves reached a high level; credit moderately increased; institutional environment was gradually improving; the business trend of the business sector witnessed many positive signs, reflecting the increasing confidence of investors; economic restructuring noted initially change; export maintained a moderate increase; processing and manufacturing industries increased highly; total domestic demand was stronger. Social security was strengthened, employment increased, thereby improving income and living standards.

Production and business of many sectors in 2015 increased significantly, leading to high growth, contributing significantly to the implementation of the 2011-2015 5-year socio-economic development plan. However, due to the impact of the financial crisis and global recession since 2008, besides some targets, there were still some targets that did not reach the targets: Economic growth, proportion of investment capital/GDP, trade deficit; labor productivity; CPI; population growth rate; rate of forest cover, etc.

However, in addition to the achieved results, our economy still faces many difficulties and challenges when stepping through the door of integration. The world economy still has many potential risks, negatively affecting the economic development of countries, including Vietnam which is heavily dependent on the outside. Oil prices still tend to fall and forecasted to remain low in the medium term. Inflation curbed and kept stable at a low level but still has the potential to increase again due to the impact of unpredictable fluctuations of the world market or the adjustment of domestic prices for some products and services. Currently, the fast growing foreign investment sector is synonymous with the weak development of the domestic sector, in which the state sector still has many shortcomings, waste and inefficiencies; the role of the private sector is not strong enough due to stagnation and lack of initiative, dynamism and creativity. The handling of bad debts in the past years has achieved certain results but still has many problems. The slow restructuring process leads to low quality growth and becomes a risk to the economy in the coming time. The import and export of goods witnessed an increase, however ensuring the quality and lack of sustainability, leads to a slow and unstable improvement of the trade balance with the trade deficit again, especially the trade deficit of the domestic economic sector is currently at a high level. The quality of human resources remains a concern leading to low labor productivity, which limits the efficiency and competitiveness of the entire economy.

Despite many difficulties and challenges, the socio-economic development of our country has a fundamental advantage, which is the confidence of the people and the business community in resolute and proper leadership and direction and timely by the Party, National Assembly and the Government. At the same time we also have opportunities ahead: The confidence of international investors in Vietnam is increasing with the accession to the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) as well as the ASEAN Economic Community which is helping Vietnam become one of the attractive destinations for foreign investors, creating opportunities for fast-growing domestic enterprises, aiming to participate in global supply chains for a number of high-tech products.

In general, the prospects of our economy in the coming years have many positive factors, but the branches, levels and localities must correctly and adequately recognize difficulties and challenges on the way ahead to be timely have solutions to overcome, and actively take advantage of opportunities to best implement the objectives of socio-economic development in 2016, creating strong momentum for the next years, focusing on the following issues:

Firstly, to control inflation to proactively prevent and limit the uncertainties of the world market, negatively impacting the domestic market, while avoiding the increase of some price goods and services caused shock to inflation. To review and improve institutions and policies to actively and effectively integrate into the world economy. To promptly advocate and guide enterprises to access full information about the TPP. To promptly prepare necessary conditions, develop appropriate mechanisms and policies to be ready to participate in the global competitive market in all aspects: management level, quality of human resources, quality and technical standards of import and export goods, product brand, etc. To strongly develop the domestic market with a variety of domestically products together with diversifying export markets. To quickly develop supporting industries, including the current imported product manufacturing industry and high value-added export product manufacturing industry to reduce the pressure to import inputs, to control trade deficit and stabilize the trade balance at a reasonable level.

Secondly, domestic enterprises, including large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, need to clearly identify Vietnam’s participation in TPP not only facing challenges but also a great opportunity to introduce, promote and affirming its products to the world market. In the coming time, the trend of foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese market will increase strongly, so domestic enterprises must actively use information and seek partners to participate in global supply chain, production and business; at the same time, to be equipped with necessary knowledge in the context of increasingly a deep integration. In addition, the business community should focus on research to form a close link among businesses to improve the level of specialization in the production process of the same sector to save costs and increase labor productivity, ensuring sustainable competition.

Thirdly, one of the important factors to ensure agricultural production to stand firm when competing with other countries in the integration period is to build a specific orientation on the output market on the basis of promoting production model is closely linked between household economy and enterprises, creating clean agricultural products under stable and highly legal consumption contracts. Investment in agriculture and rural areas must be focused on having specific and synchronous plans and procedures in terms of finance, land and technology, avoiding spreading and fragmented investment. In order to improve the consumption of agricultural products, in addition to doing well the formulation of strategies from the selection of plants and animals to production stages, it is necessary to advocate market demand and product prices as well as policies to farmers so that products can be consumed more efficiently, avoiding the current stagnation. To enhance the export of processed agricultural products, apply and innovate technologies in aquaculture and processing to increase productivity and improve quality and increase competitiveness for agricultural products for export.

GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE

[1] Year-on-year GDP growth some years from 2011 to 2014 was: 6.24%, 5.25%, 5.42 %, and 5.98%, respectively.

[2] The increase compared to the previous year of the fishery activities in some years from 2011 to 2014 was 4.34%, 3.75%, 3.82%, 6.53%, respectively.

[3] The increase over the previous year of the manufacturing in 2013, 2014 was 7.22%, 7.41%, respectively.

[4] The fluctuation compared to the previous year of the construction activities in some years: a decrease of 0.26% in 2011, an increase of 3.66%, 5.84%, 6.93% in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

[5]  Total paddy production in 2014 reached 44.98 million tons, an increase of 935.9 thousand tons compared with that of against 2013.

[6] Aquaculture Stewardship Council (Association of management for fisery aquaculturing ).

[7] The 11-month IIS of the manufacturing in 2013 and 2014 over the same period last year reached 9.2% and 11.1%, respectively.

[8] Of which a number of labor-intensive industries experienced a significant increase in the index of labor usage: the manufacture of electronic, computers and optical products (24.1 %); the manufacture of tobacco products (23.8%); the manufacture of wearing apparel (9.6%) ; the manufacture of leather and leather products (7.2%); the manufacture of textile (6.7%).

[9] Source: National business registration information system, Ministry of Planning and Investment.

[10] In 2010 it increased by 26.5%; in 2011 increased by 34.2%; in 2012 increased by 18.2%; in 2013 increased by 15.3%; in 2014 increased by 13.8%.

[11] In 2012, trade surplus was 748.8 million USD; in 2013, the trade surplus was 0.3 million USD; in 2014, trade surplus was nearly 2.4 billion USD.

[12] CPI in December compared to the same period last year: In 2002 increased by 4%; in 2003 increased by 3%; in 2004 increased by 9.5%; in 2005 increased by 8.4%; in 2006 increased by 6.6%; in 2007 increased by 12.63%; in 2008 increased by 19.89%; 2009 increased by 6.52%; in 2010 increased by 11.75%; in 2011 increased by 18.13%; in 2012 increased by 6.81%; in 2013 increased by 6.04%; in 2014 increased by 1.84%.

Average CPI in the years compared to the previous year: In 2002, it increased by 3.9%; in 2003 increased by 3.18%; in 2004 increased by 7.7%; in 2005 increased by 8.3%; in 2006 increased by 7.5%; in 2007 increased by 8.3%; in 2008 increased by 22.97%; in 2009 increased by 6.88%; in 2010 increased by 9.19%; in 2011 increased by 18.58%; in 2012 increased by 9.21%; 2013 increased by 6.6%; in 2014 increased by 4.09%.

[13] Brent oil price fell to the lowest level in the last 5 years, the average price of Brent oil in 2015 dropped by 45.6% compared to 2014.

[14] Health care service prices were adjusted in 2015 that contributed 0.1% to the general increase of CPI; education service prices contributed 0.4% to the general increase of CPI. Electricity price was adjusted to increase by 7.5% (March 16th, 2015), contributed 0.14% to the general increase.

[15] Export price index of goods/import price index of goods.

[16] Employment in the informal economy in non-agricultural activities include those who do not work in agriculture, forestry and fisheries and belong to one of the following three groups: (i) wage earners in the formal sector who are not entitled to enter into a labor contract or to be entered into a labor contract with definite term but not paid compulsory social insurance by employers; family labor in establishments in the formal sector and cooperative members who do not have a compulsory social insurance; (ii) owners of establishments, self-employed workers, wage earners and family labor in establishments in the informal sector; (iii) self-employed workers for self-consumption of households and hired labor in households.

[17] GDP per one laborer aged 15 years and over who is working.

[18] By PPP 2005: labor productivity of Singapore in 1994 was 29,2 times higher than Vietnam’s but in 2013 this gap was 18 times; similarly the labor productivity gap between Malaysia and Vietnam reduced from 10.6 times to 6.6 times; between Thailand and Vietnam from 4.6 times to 2.7 times; between Philippines and Vietnam from 3.1 times to 1.8 times; between Indonesia and Vietnam from 2.9 times to 1.8 times.

[19] Difference in labor productivity betwen Singapore and Vietnam (by PPP 2005)  increased from  62,052 USD in 1994 to 92,632 USD in 2013; similarly, between Malaysia and Vietnam from 21,142 USD to 30,311 USD; between Thailand and Vietnam from 7,922 USD to 9,314 USD; between Indonesia and Vietnam from 4,104 USD to  4,408 USD.

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