1. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) Growth
GDP in six beginning months of 2015 was estimated 6.28% increase against the same period in 2014, of which the growth rate was 6.08% in the 1st Quarter; 6.44% in the 2nd Quarter. Of the overall growth rate, the agriculture, forestry and fishery grew by 2.36%, contributed 0.42 percentage points; the industry and construction by 9.09%, contributed 2.98 percentage points (the industry rose 9.53%, of which the manufacturing achieved a high growth of 9.95% , contributed 1.57 percentage points to the general growth; the mining and quarrying had a high increase of 8.18%, a decarease of 1.13% in the same period last year; the construction went up by 6.60%, higher than the growth of 6.11% in 2014’s similar period.); the service by 5.90%, contributed 2.22 percentage points (wholesale and retail went up by 8.35%; accommodation and catering service by 2.90%; finance, banking and insurance by 5.85%; the real estate business by 2.72%).
Regarding the economy structure in six beginning months of this year, the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 16.73%; the industry and construction accounted for 33.45%; the service accounted for 39.61%; taxes on products excluding subsidies on products took 10.21%.
In terms of GDP to use in six months of the year, final consumption increased by 8.70% from the same period in 2014 and contributed 7.74 percentage points to the general growth; accumulated assets by 6.85%, contributed 2.25 percentage points; balance of trade and service reduced 3.71 percentage points of the overall growth.
2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery
The country’s cultivated area of winter-spring rice this year was at an estimate of 3112.2 thousand hectares, reduced 4.3 thousand hectares compared with the same crop last year. According to preliminary report, winter-spring rice productivity this year was estimated to reach 6650kg/ha, decreased 40kg/ha from the same crop in 2014; yield attained 20.7 million tons, reduced 153.3 thousand tons.
In six beginning months of the year, the newly-planted concentrated forest area was estimated to gain 85 thousand hectares, increased by 19% from the similar period last year; wood production reached 3470 thousand m3, a rise of 11.7%.
Estimated fishing production in six beginning months achieved 3071.5 thousand tons, grew by 3.8% from 2014’s same period, of which farmed production gained 1574.8 thousand tons, rose 3.3%; caught production reached 1496.7 thousand tons, rose 4.4%.
Industrial Production Index (IPI) in six beginning months of the year rose 9.6% from the similar period last year (1st Quarter: 9.3% increase; 2nd Quarter: 10.2% increase), of which the mining and quarrying grew by 8.2%, contributed 1.7 percentage points to the general growth; the manufacturing by 10%, contributed 7 percentage points; the power generation and supply by 11.2%, contributed 0.8 percentage points; the water supply and waste treatment by 6.4%, contributed 0.1 percentage points .
Consumption index for the whole manufacturing in five months of the year grew by 12.7% over the same period in 2014, higher than the growth of 9% in 2014’s similar period. As of June 01, 2015, the stock index for the entire manufacturing increased by 11.8% from the same period last year, lower than the growth of 12.8% in the last year’s identical period.
4. Operation of enterprises
Compared to the same period in 2014, the number of enterprises registered for new establishment in six beginning months of this year rose 21.7% in the number of enterprises and 22.3% in the registered capital. The average registered capital per newly-established enterprise went up by 0.5%. The expected number of labourers provided with job in newly-established enterprises grew by 20.4%.
The number of enterprises which finished the procedure for dissolving, terminating business activities in six beginning months of this year decreased by 0.9%; the number of enterprises having difficulty forced to temporarily cease operations fell by 5.8%; the number of enterprises re-operated increased by 2.2%.
5. Business trends of enterprises
Results of the business trend survey from 3389 manufacturing enterprises as follows:
According to enterprises’ assessment, 40.5% of them thought that situation of business and production in the 2nd Quarter are more positive than in the 1st Quarter; 20.1% of them assessed having difficulties; 39.4% thought the business and production are stable. Expected the 3rd Quarter compared with the 2nd Quarter, 49.4% of enterprises thought having trends to be better; 13.2% of enterprises forecast to be worse and 37.4% of enterprises thought that the business and production situation would be stable.
Regarding the production volume, 44.3% of enterprises assessed the production volume in the 2nd Quarter of this year rose compared with the previous quarter; 19.1% evaluated the production volume went down and 36.6% thought it was stable. The trend of 3rd Quarter in comparison with the 2nd Quarter: 52% of enterprises forecast the production volume will be up; 11.1% forecast it will be down and 36.9% forecast it will be stable.
About orders of this year’s 2nd Quarter compared with the 1st Quarter: 37% of enterprises had the higher number of orders; 19.2% had the number of orders reduced and 43.8% had the stable number of orders. The trend of the 3rd Quarter in comparison with the 2nd Quarter will get better: 45% of enterprises expected to have the higher number of orders; 10.8% expected the number of orders will be dropped; 10.8% expected to have the stable number of orders.
Regarding export orders of the 2nd Quarter against the previous quarter: 29.3% of enterprises confirmed to have the higher number of export orders; 19.5% had the reduced number of export orders and 51.2% had the stable number of export orders. The trend of the 3rd Quarter compared with the 2nd Quarter: 40.7% of enterprises expected to raise the number of export orders; 12.8% expected to be declined and 46.5% expected to be stable.
About the stock of products: 21.1% of enterprises had inventories in the 2nd Quarter increased from the previous quarter; 32.7% had inventories reduced and 46.2% remained stable. The trend of the 3rd Quarter in comparison with the 2nd Quarter: 16% of enterprises forecast inventories will go up; 33.4% thought inventories will go down and 50.6% forecast inventories will keep stable.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in six beginning months of this year increased by 9.8% against the same period in 2014, if the factor of inflation were excluded, the growth rate would be 8.3%.
Passenger carriage in six beginning months of the year rose 7.4% in the volume of passengers and 7% in passengers-kilometers year on year. Cargo transport in six months grew by 5.7% in the volume of passengers and 1.7% in passengers-kilometers.
Generally, in six beginning months of this year, international visitors to Vietnam were estimated to reach 3804.6 thousand arrivals, reduced by 11.3% from the similar period last year.
7. Investment & development
Estimated realized social investment capital at current prices in six months went up by 9.4% over the identical period last year and equaled 31.1% of GDP, of which the state sector’s capital increased by 7.2% (the capital under the State budget rose 1.7%); the non-state sector’s capital by 11.4%; the FDI sector’s capital by 9.9%.
From the beginning of the year to June 20, 2015, the country had 757 newly licensed FDI projects with the registered capital of US $3839.2 million, an increase of 15.4% in the number of projects and a decline of 21% in the capital from the similar period in 2014. The total registered capital of both newly and additionally financed projects reached US $5493.4 million, fell by 19.8% from the same period last year. Estimated realized FDI in 6 beginning months of the year achieved US $6.3 billion, rose 9.6% over 2014’s same period.
8. Government revenues and expenditures
Total estimated government revenues from the beginning of the year to June 15, 2015 achieved 406.2 trillion dongs, equaled 44.6% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues reached 298.8 trillion dongs, equaled 46.8%; collecting from crude oil achieved 32.6 trillion dongs, equaled 35%; from export-import balance: 73.4 trillion dongs, equaled 41.9%. Of home revenues, 91.2 trillion dongs were from state enterprises, equaling 41.3% of the yearly estimate; 61.8 trillion dongs were from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil), equaling 43.4%; 58 trillion dongs were from non-state industrial, commercial and non-state service taxes, equaling 48.5%; 27.6 trillion dongs were from individual income tax, equaling 53.8%; 6.6 trillion dongs were from tax on environment protection, equaling 51%; and 24.4 trillion dongs were from land use fee, equaling 62.7%.
Total government expenditures from the beginning of the year to June 15, 2015 reached an estimate of 501.2 trillion dongs, equaled 43.7% of the yearly estimate. Of which, spending for investment & development achieved 80.8 trillion dongs, equaled 41.4% (only spending for capital construction reached 78.4 trillion dongs, equaled 41.2%); spending for economic and social development, national defense and security, state management was estimated to gain 345.3 trillion dongs, equaled 45%; paying debts and aids 71 trillion dongs, equaling 47.4%.
Generally, in six beginning months of the year, estimated export turnovers reached US $77.7 billion, rose 9.3% from the same period last year. If the factor of inflation were excluded, it would gain US $80.7 billion, up 13.4% against the last year’s similar period. Of the total export turnovers in six months, the domestic economic sector achieved US $22.8 billion, decreased by 2.9%; the FDI sector (including crude oil) reached US $54.9 billion, grew by 15.3%.
About the export market in six beginning months of this year, the United States continued to take the lead with US $15.7 billion, a rise of 18.6% compared to the same period in 2014; followed by EU with US $14.8 billion, a rise of 11.6%; ASEAN: US $9.3 billion, a decrease of 0.8%; China: US $7.7 billion, a rise of 3.6%; Japan: US $6.7 billion, down 6.7%; South Korea: US $3.7 billion, up 22.3%.
Regarding the structure of export goods, the group of heavy industrial and mineral goods was estimated to account for 45.7% of the total export turnovers, increase 2.1 percentage points compared to the same period in 2014. The group of handicrafts and light industrial goods had the proportion up from 40.2% in six beginning months of 2014 to 40.5% in six beginning months of this year. The group of agricultural and forestry products declined from11.2% to 9.9%. The aquatic products reduced from 5% to 3.9%.
Generally, in six beginning months of the year, estimated import turnovers reached US $81.5 billion, rose 17.7% from the similar period in 2014, of which domestic economic sector reached US $32.7 billion, grew by 7.7%; the FDI sector gained US $48.8 billion, by 25.5%. If the factor of inflation were excluded, it would achieve US $84.6 billion, up 22.1% against the last year’s similar period.
About the import market in six beginning months of the year, imports from China still maintain at the high level with US $24.4 billion, rose 23.9% compared to the similar period in 2014; followed by the South Korea with US $13.8 billion, up 31.2%; ASEAN: US $12 billion, up 6%; Japan: US $7.3 billion, up 27.7%; the EU: US $4.5 billion, up 5.8%; the United States: US $3.8 billion, up 19.8%.
Regarding the structure of import goods in six beginning months of this year, the group of machinery, equipment and accessories accounted for 41.1%, reduced 3.9 percentage points against the same period in 2014. The group of materials, fuel took 49.9%, increased 4.3 percentage points. The group of consumer items held 9%, decreased 0.4 percentage points.
In the first six months of the year, estimated trade deficit was US $3.7 billion, equalled 4.8% of export turnovers. The domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of US $9.8 billion while the FDI sector continued to have a trade surplus of US $6.1 billion.
11. Consumer price indexes (CPI)
CPI in June 2015 grew by 0.35% from the previous month, of which the group of transport had the highest growth at 3.54%. The factors impacted on June’s CPI: Petrol price was adjusted to increase making the general CPI jump up about 0.3%; high demand for electricity contributed 0.04% to the growth of general CPI; price of medical services in Ho Chi Minh City was adjusted to rise making the overall CPI went up about 0.02%.
CPI in June 2015 increased by 0.55% from December 2014 and rose 1% over the similar period last year. On average, CPI per month in six beginning months of this year grew by 0.1%. Average CPI in six beginning months of this year went up by 0.86% compared with the figures in the last year’s identical period.
Export price index in the 2nd Quarter of this year decreased by 1.09% from the previous quarter and dropped by 3.61% against the same period last year. Import price index in the 2nd Quarter fell by 2.09% compared to the previous quarter and by 4.66% from the last year’s similar period.
12. Labor and employment
The country’s number of labourers aged 15 and above as of July 01, 2015 were estimated 53.86 million persons, increasing 147 thousand persons compared with 2014’s same period. Labour force within the working age group as of above time was 47.79 million persons, having no much change compared with the same period last year. Laborers aged 15 and above working in six beginning months of this year were estimated 52.55 million persons. Labours working in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 45.1%; in the sector of industry and construction: 21.8%; in the service sector: 33.1% respectively.
The unemployment rate of labourers within the working age group in the first six months of this year was estimated at 2.44%, of which it was 3.35% for the urban area; 2.00% for the rural area. Estimated unemployment rate of the youth aged 15-24 was 6.71%, of which it was 11.04% for the urban area and 5.15% for the rural area. The unemployment rate of labourers aged 25 and above in 6 beginning months of the year was 1.38%, of which it was 1.89% for the urban area and 1.13% for the rural area. Estimated underemployment rate of labourers within the working age group in the first six months of 2015 was 2.52%, of which it was 1.29% for the urban area and 3.11% for the rural area.