Today, 8 March 2005, the General Statistics Office organized a dissemination workshop on the results of the Population Change Survey which was carried out on 1 April 2004.
Here are some results of the survey:
The survey allows the calculation of two measures of fertility. The crude birth rate (CBR) is the annual number of births expressed per thousand population; this is a population measure. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of births a woman would have in her lifetime if she bore her children at the rates prevailing in a particular year; this is a per-woman measure.
Compared with the survey conducted in 2003, the crude birth rate (CBR) increased slightly from 17.5 per thousand to 18.5 per thousand. The TFR increased slightly from 2.12 per woman to 2.23 per woman. The average number of children born to a rural woman was half a child more than to an urban woman.
Regions which had higher fertility than the national level were the Central Highlands (TFR: 3.06), the Northwest region (TFR: 2.51) and the North Central region (TFR: 2.63). Regions with a low TFR included the Red River Delta (TFR: 2.23), the Mekong River Delta (TFR: 2.01) and the Southeast (TFR: 1.88).
Various factors affect the level of fertility.
- Use of contraceptive methods:The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is the proportion of currently married women aged 15-49 using contraception. The CPR is high in Viet Nam, being measured in 2004 at 75.5%, of which modern contraceptive methods accounted for 64.6%. This figure is much higher than that recorded in other countries in the region.
- The proportion married:Marriage is obviously an important determinant of fertility. There have not been significant recent changes.
- Abortion/Mentrual Regulation:The survey results showed that the proportion of women experiencing an abortion or menstrual regulation was lower than in previous years.
The infant mortality rate (IMR), which is the probability that a newborn infant will not survive to his first birthday, is a good indicator of the health and survival of the population at large. The infant mortality rate (IMR) continuously decreased over recent years, and as estimated by the 2004 survey, stood at 18 per thousand live births in 2003. However, there were substantial regional regional differences in the IMR. In the Central Highlands and Northwest, the IMR, at 36 per thousand live births, was twice the national level.
Another measure of mortality, analogous to the crude birth rate, is the crude death rate. It is the annual number of deaths at all ages, expressed per thousand population. The 2004 survey estimated the CDR at 5.8 per thousand.
The survey also revealed that internal migration is increasing. The highest net migration rate was seen in Binh Duong, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh (23.2 per thousand, 15.3 per thousand and 13.4 per thousand respectively).
Big cities and urban/industrial zones are very attractive to migrants. It is therefore necessary to have appropriate socio-economic polices to adjust the flow of migration in accordance with national and regional development plans as well as to ensure that migrants have access to basic social services as stated in the National Strategies for Population and Reproductive Health Care.
The 2004 Survey in Context
The 2004 survey produces additional estimates of fertility, mortality, and growth rates. and places them along a continuing trend of gentle decline. Fertility and mortality decline are longstanding in Viet Nam, and are now being consolidated. We have no reason to believe that further declines in fertility and mortality will not continue in the future.
Fore more detailed information about this survey, please do not hesitate to contact the Department of Population and Labour Statistics
The General Statistics Office:
No. 2 Hoang Van Thu, Hanoi Vietnam
Tel: 04. 8230100
Fax: 04. 7339287