ࡱ> ~q` fbjbjqPqP 4:: 4P    %%%8&&$ &' ( ( ( ( ( ( (ikkkkkk$hxQ* ( (** ( (*^ ( (i*i (' 55Ȉ%'݋0&$F$$P (v(T(D) ( ( (5X ( ( (&****   %   %    NG DNG C LNG BAYESIAN PHN TCH V T L NGHO CA CC TNH  VIT NAM Dominique Haughton(*) Nguyn Phong(**) Vn  c lng tham s nh thc (binomial parameter)  thu ht s quan tm ca cc nh thng k v nhng ngi khc trong l)nh vc c lng t trng. Mi ngi u bit rng khi c lng cc s t trng thng cn mt c mu ln  t c  chnh xc chp nhn c ca c lng. Cc c lng c mu thng da vo cch tnh ton c in v khong tin cy, i khi c iu chnh theo cc thit k mu c bit. Cng trnh nghin cu gn y ca Brown (2001)  tp trung s ch vo nhng khim khuyt ca nhng khong tin cy ny, c bit vo thc t l trong nhiu trng hp  khong tin cy 95% c  bao ph t hn 95%. Uc lng t l ngho l c lng tham s nh thc v t l ngho ni chung c xc nh l t trng h c mc chi tiu dng bnh qun u ngi hng nm thp hn chun ngho cho trc. Trong phn ln ni dung ca bi vit ny, chng ti gi s rng chun ngho ny l khng ngu nhin v vic xc nh h ngho hay khng ngho c thc hin chnh xc. Chng ta s tho lun nhng hm ca vic xc nh khng chnh xc chun ngho trong phn sau ca bi vit. c lng t l ngho cho cc tnh ca Vit Nam rt ph hp vi phn tch Bayesian: thng tin tin nghim (v d kin chuyn gia v t l ngho) thng  c sn v c mu  cp tnh c xu hng kh nh do iu tra ln thng tn km v b nh hng bi sai s phi chn mu. Nhng nh thng k chn mu v nhng ngi khc c lin quan n thit k v phn tch nhng cuc iu tra nh vy ( Vit Nam hoc  ni khc) cho n nay khng s dng phn tch Bayesian vi t l ngho (xem Glewwe v Yansaneh v mt phn tch c th trong l)nh vc ny). Trong bi ny chng ti s ch ra rng mc  chnh xc ca cc c lng s cao hn khi s dng nhng thng tin tin nghim hp l v chun ngho  bit. Chng ti s minh ho kt qu ny bng mt mu  thnh th giu hn (thnh ph H Ch Minh) v mt mu  nng thn ngho hn (Ngh An). Tuy nhin,  m bo c c kt qu ny, mt iu cn lu l khi s xc nh ngho/khng ngho sai xy ra, m trong thc t rt c th xy ra,  bao ph trung bnh ca khong xc sut rng 4 im % khng t ti 0,95, ngay c vi c mu ln, trong khi n c th t ti 0,95 i vi khong xc sut rng 8 im %. c lng Bayesian v t l ngho khi chun ngho  bit  khu vc thnh th ca thnh ph H Ch Minh, mu trong Kho st Mc sng Dn c Vit Nam nm 1998 c 433 h, trong  c 2 h ngho. Cc tnh ton c quyn s thng thng (frequentist) (theo quyn s chn mu) cho t l ngho l 0,00462, vi  lch chun l 0,00334 (h s bin thin khong 0,7).  thc hin phn tch Bayesian, chng ti s dng hn hp cc phn phi bta lm tin nghim cho t l ngho cha bit, c gi trong k thut ca Nandram v Sedransk. iu ny  c chng minh trong cng trnh nghin cu ca Dalal v Hall (1983), rng bt k tin nghim no cing c th l xp x bi hn hp nh vy. Sau  chng ti p dng cng thc dng ng ca Nandram v Sedransk i vi gi tr trung bnh hu nghim v  lch chun hu nghim ca t l ngho i vi thit k mu chm hai bc. Trong trng hp ca nc ta, chng ti gi s rng x/phng c chn ngu nhin, sau  h c chn ngu nhin t x/phng. Trong thc t c thm mt bc trong thit k mu: thn/cm c chn ngu nhin t x/phng, sau  h c chn ngu nhin t thn/cm. Chng ti d kin s  cp n vn  chn mu chm ba bc trong tng lai, trong  s khng c sn cng thc dng ng no i vi gi tr trung bnh v  lch chun hu nghim ca t l ngho. Mc d vy, chng ti khng ngh) rng vic thm mt bc chn mu na s to ra s khc bit ln v phn tch ny s xp x vi thc t. Tip theo, chng ti s dng WINBUGS  m phng phn phi hu nghim, vi cc lnh (code) c cng b trong Congdon (2001; v d 5.18 trang 196). Ngoi s liu v h ngho/khng ngho t nhng x/phng c iu tra, phn tch ny cn s dng s liu v s h trong tng x/phng  tng ng ca khu vc thnh th thnh ph H Ch Minh v khu vc nng thn Ngh An. M hnh trong phn tch ny tnh t l ngho ring ca tng x/phng v sau  kt hp nhng t l ngho ny vo t l ngho chung ca tnh. Trong Bng 1 v Hnh 1, chng ti trnh by kt qu t bn tin nghim khc nhau cho khu vc thnh th ca thnh ph H Ch Minh. Trong Bng 2 v Hnh 2, chng ti trnh by kt qu t hai tin nghim khc nhau cho khu vc nng thn ca Ngh An. Cc gi tr trung bnh v  lch chun hu nghim l ca t l ngho chung ca ton khu vc (khu vc thnh th ca thnh ph H Ch Minh v khu vc nng thn Ngh An). Hn hp cc phn phi bta c s dng lm tin nghim cho vc t ( ca N t l ngho ca N x/phng c Nandram v Sedransk a ra nh sau:  EMBED Equation.3  Trong  (k l t l ngho ca tnh th k, B l k hiu ch hm Bta. Gi tr ca wr, ar v ( phi c la chn khi suy ra tin nghim. Lu rng cc gi tr trung bnh ca cc phn phi bta trong hn hp l ar/(, v do  gi tr ca ( iu khin  lch chun ca cc phn phi bta: ( cng cao,  lch chun cng nh. Hai tin nghim u tin cho khu vc thnh th ca thnh ph H Ch Minh c cn c mt cch lng lo vo t l ngho v  lch chun ca chng  cc tnh Vit Nam c Baulch v cc ng s c lng, s dng s liu t Tng iu tra Dn s v Nh  nm 1999 v cc phng trnh hi quy da trn cc s liu ca Kho st mc sng dn c. Nhng c lng ny c s dng  nh ngh)a 4 beans tp trung vo cc gi tr c trnh by trong ct  Gi tr trung bnh trong Bng 1 cho ring 4 cu thnh v cc xc sut tin nghim ca mi bin tng ng l 0,07; 0,43; 0,43; 0,07. Lu rng gi tr bng 4 ca R c chn phn no mang tnh p t nhm tin li v linh hot trong tnh ton. Tin nghim 1 v 2 khc nhau bi gi tr ca (, v v vy cing bi  lch chun. Cc cu thnh trong tin nghim 2 t tch ri nhau, nh trong Hnh 1. Kt qu t c hai tin nghim l gn nhau, t l ngho hu nghim khong 0,01 vi  lch chun khong 0,005, l mt s ci thin (h s bin thin khong 0,5) so vi c lng thng thng. Hnh 1 cho thy hai mt  hu nghim t tin nghim 1 v 2 gn nhau, v cho phn ln xc sut hu nghim thnh hai b phn tng ng vi x giu hn v x ngho hn. Tin nghim 3 tng ng vi tin nghim t kin chuyn gia (ca mt trong s cc tc gi) rng  chng ti chc chn n 95% rng t l ngho ca khu vc thnh th ca thnh ph H Ch Minh nm trong khong 0,01 n 0,03 . Ging nh vi tin nghim 1 v 2, 4 bin cing c to ra cho tin nghim 3, tp trung vo gi tr c a ra trong Bng 1 v vi JL  , ȹp^M;M;M;M#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J#h1hl5CJOJQJ^JaJ&h1hl5CJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h1hRT5CJOJQJ^JaJ h1hl@CJOJQJ^J#h1hl0J5CJOJQJ^Jh1hlCJOJQJ^JhN$ hN$ OJQJ^JhN$ hRTOJQJ^JhN$ hlOJQJ^JaJhN$ hRTOJQJ^JaJL &*..>1TZ`g.hh$d`a$gdld`gd8$dx`a$gdN$ $`a$gdN$ $`a$gdN$ $dx`a$gdlJd, T V Z ( * 0 2 T V ^ `      2 4 < > X Z " $ j n & ( * , v x "$#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J h8hl@CJOJQJ^JP*,TV>@z~ ,.\^ (*FHvx,.vxLN.0XZbd|~ h8hl@CJOJQJ^J h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo(P  2468<>RVrt~BDFH  68HJPR̸#h8hl5@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT5@CJOJQJ^J&h8hRT5@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hl@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J9lndfn 0bhlnLNZ\^bXf F J $!&!b!d!|!~!!!!!!!!!!!""" "("޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻޻#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hl@CJOJQJ^J h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J hDhD@CJOJQJ^JJ(","\"^"b"d"""""""""## #"#(#*#4#8#@#D#x#z######### $$$$,$0$p$t$$$$$&%(%|%~%6&8&n&p&&&&&&&''F'H'~''''''''''''L(N(R(T(\( h8hl@CJOJQJ^J h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo(P\(`(d(h())))))$*&*R*T*V+X+F,H,,,^-`-------".$.(.*.2.6.d.h.v.x.......ܷˢˆo-jh8hl@CJEHOJQJU^J7j(ʤG h8hl@CJOJQJUV^JmH sH )jh8hl@CJOJQJU^J& jqh8hl@CJOJQJ^J h8hl@CJOJQJ^J h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo(+........//\/b/d/l/n/z/~///^0`0b0d0r0v0000000000 1 111<1>1^1`1111ȶȢِ|ȶȶ|ȶ|ȶȶ|ȶȶȶ& jth8hl@CJOJQJ^J#h8hl@CJH*OJQJ^J& jqh8hl@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J h8hl@CJOJQJ^J)jh8hl@CJOJQJU^J,111 22242222222222233:3<3\3`333333444*4,40424J4T444t5z5~5555556 6H6J67ȶȶȶȶȶȥȶȶȶȶȶȶȶȶȶȓȶȓȶȥȶȶȶ#h8hl>*@CJOJQJ^J h8hl@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J&h8hRT>*@CJOJQJ^Jo(#h8hRT>*@CJOJQJ^J2777.7077777*8,8l8n8|8~8888899&9(90929J9L99999P:T:|:~:::::; ;X;Z;;;;;F<H<N<P<X<Z<t<v<<<<<<<<(=,=2=6=ʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸʸۦʸʸʸ#h8hl>*@CJOJQJ^J#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^J h8hl@CJOJQJ^J& jth8hl@CJOJQJ^JA6=h=j=XYYYYYYZ Z Z.Z8Z>Z@ZRZTZdZfZ|Z~ZZZ[[4[6[J[L[r[t[\\4\8\B\D\f\h\t\x\^^"^&^6^8^^ _ _$___````H`L`T`V````````Za\ajanaaaaaaab h8hl@CJOJQJ^JU#h8hRT@CJOJQJ^Jo( h8hRT@CJOJQJ^JP rng ph hp vi tin nghim theo kin ca chuyn gia. Nhng thng k tm tt ca t l ngho hu nghim rt gn vi kt qu theo tin nghim 1 v 2. Tin nghim 4 l tin nghim rt tn mn, v trong trng hp ny, t l ngho hu nghim khng chnh xc ( lch chun l 0,008) nh d kin. Trong trng hp ny, chng ti c c cc biu thc dng ng ca gi tr trung bnh v  lch chun hu nghim, ln kh nng s dng WINBUGS  to ra mt mu t hu nghim. Kt qu t c hai phn tch ny d kin l gn nhau, v thc t ng nh vy. Chng ti lu  y rng chng ti pht hin ra nu cc cu thnh bta qu tch ri hoc nu mt trong cc cu thnh qu gn 0 th chui MCMC trong WINBUGS c th b  tc  mt cu thnh v cho gi tr trung bnh hu nghim khng ng. Vn  ny trong thc t khng gy ngc nhin cho nhng tc gi ca WINBUGS (N. Best, personal communication), v c th c khc phc bng cch kim tra nhng kt qu ca WINBUGS da vo cng thc dng ng dng cho thit k mu chm hai bc i vi mt tin nghim  cho, v sau chuyn sang nhng thit k iu tra phc tp hn nu cn thit. i vi khu vc nng thn tnh Ngh An c 225 h trong mu, trong  c 110 h ngho. Cc c lng c quyn s thng thng cho t l ngho l 0,489 vi  lch chun l 0,104. Tin nghim 1 li cn c mt cch lng lo vo cc c lng ca Baulch v cc ng s; a ra gi tr trung bnh hu nghim ca t l ngho l 0,5 vi  lch chun l 0,05, l mt s ci thin v  chnh xc so vi phn tch thng thng. Tin nghim 2 cn c vo t l ngho l 0,2 theo c tnh ca B Lao ng Thng binh X hi  to ra 4 bin vi  rng nh trong tin nghim 1. T l ngho tin nghim l 0,2 c th qu thp, v tht th v khi xem phn tch Bayesian s dng s liu  sa thng tin tin nghim ny: chui MCMC tp trung gn nh ring vo mt b phn cao hn  a ra gi tr trung bnh hu nghim ca t l ngho l 0,42 vi  lch chun khong 0,01. BNG 1: GI TR TRUNG BNH V  LCH CHUN TIN NGHIM V HU NGHIM CA KHU VC THNH TH CA THNH PH H CH MINH WWiTin nghim 1 (=200Tin nghim 2 (=80Tin nghim 3 (=80Tin nghim 4 (=40Gi tr TB lch chunGi tr TB lch chunGi tr TB lch chunGi tr TB lch chun0,07Cu thnh 10,0050,0050,0050,0080,0090,0100,0050,0110,43Cu thnh 20,0150,0090,0150,0140,0160,0140,0250,0240,43Cu thnh 30,0450,0150,0450,0230,0240,0170,0800,0420,07Cu thnh 40,0750,0190,0750,0290,0310,0190,1400,054Tng0,0310,0230,0310,0270,0200,0170,0550,051Gi tr TB hu nghim lch chun hu nghimGi tr TB hu nghim lch chun hu nghimGi tr. TB hu nghim lch chun hu nghimGi tr TB hu nghim lch chun hu nghimDng ng0,0098720,0049820,0107650,0049110,0136840,0045610,0088410,007801Winbugs0,0096640,0049640,0106110,0049100,0135300,0045080,0101300,008632 BNG 2: GI TR TRUNG BNH V  LCH CHUN TIN NGHIM V HU NGHIM CA KHU VC NNG THN TNH NGH AN wiTin nghim 1 (=40Tin nghim 2 (=30Gi tr trung bnh lch chunGi tr trung bnh lch chun0,07Cu thnh 10,2250,0650,0500,0390,43Cu thnh 20,3750,0760,1250,0590,43Cu thnh 30,5250,0780,2750,0800,07Cu thnh 40,6750,0730,4250,089Tng0,4500,1330,2050,122Gi tr trung bnh hu nghim lch chun hu nghimGi tr trung bnh hu nghim lch chun hu nghimDng ng0,4998100,0551380,4246970,008203Winbugs0,5034000,0515600,4245000,009934 c lng Bayesian vi trng hp c s phn loi sai Chng ta xt tnh hung c sai s trong vic xc nh h ngho v h khng ngho (c s phn loi sai). Nguyn nhn l do trong thc t kh tnh chnh xc chun ngho m phn ln l do kh thu thp chnh xc s liu v gi ca cc hng ho c bn. Vn  xc nh h ngho cing tng t nh trong chn on bnh da trn nhng xt nghim khng hon ho. ? y chng ti s dng cng trnh nghin cu ca Rahme v ng s ng dng vo l)nh vc y t trong  thc hin xc nh c mu Bayesian cho tham s nh thc vi gi thit c s phn loi sai. Trong phm vi vn  ny, vic kim tra i vi tnh trng ngho c  nhy (xc sut ca mt h ngho c phn loi l ngho) v s c trng (xc sut ca mt h khng ngho c phn loi l khng ngho), vi phn phi tin nghim bta da theo Rahme v ng s, v t l ngho cing c cho phn phi tin nghim bta. Minh ho cch tip cn ny vi khu vc nng thn Ngh An, vi nh ngh)a phn phi tin nghim bta cho t l ngho c cc tham s (=70,32 v (=77,1 da trn c s ca cc c lng cho t l ngho v  lch chun ca n trong cng trnh nghin cu ca Baulch v ng s. Ly cc phn phi bta lm nhng tin nghim cho  nhy v s c trng ca phn loi ngho/khng ngho t kin cho rng  nhy trung bnh s c trng cng l khong 0,95 v chng ta chc chn 95% rng  nhy v s c trng nm trong khong 0,9 n 1. ? kin ny cho tham s bta nhng gi tr nu trong bng 3. Bng 3 trnh by cc  bao ph trung bnh ca khong xc sut i vi hai  rng khong khc nhau v ba c mu khc nhau, c tnh ton t chng trnh S-plus v c Rahme v ng s cng b. R rng l  bao ph khng t n 0,95 i vi  rng bng 4 im %, ngay c vi nhng c mu rt ln.  bao ph nh vy l kh thi vi khong c  rng l 0,08 vi nhng c mu ln. Tuy nhin, chng ti lu rng nhng k thut ca Rahme v ng s gi thit rng cc mu l c lp v c to ra t cng mt phn phi (independent identically distributed sample - mu iid), v vy tnh hnh c th xu i khi s dng mt thit k iu tra phc tp hn. BNG 3:  BAO PH TRUNG BNH CA KHONG XC SUT I VI T L NGHO CA KHU VC NNG THN NGH AN VI GI THIT MU IID. (sens=(spec=71,25; (sens=(spec=3,75; (=70,32; (=77,1 rng ca khongC mu bao ph xc sut0,0410000,64390,0420000,69240,0430000,69950,0810000,92610,0820000,94710,0830000,9587 Ti liu tham kho Baulch, B. & N. Minot (2002). The Spatial Distribution of Poverty in Vietnam and the Potential for Targeting. World Bank working paper 2829. Brown, L. D., T. Tony Cai & A. DasGupta (2001). Interval Estimation for a Binomial Proportion. Statistical Science, 16(2), 101-133. Congdon, P (2001). Bayesian Statistical Modelling. Wiley. ........ 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