ࡱ> @ bjbjFF (,,28RL<tttttttt$uR5x8tu8tt2s2s2s]t2st2s2s2s ۣxp2snst0t2sx:rx2sx2s<2s8t8tD $(s  S LC CCH XEM T VI V PHNG PHP PHN TCH X HI HC CA NGI XA Hong Minh Thin Mn t vi ca ngi ng tn ti  hng nghn nm lun lun l vn  tranh ci: khoa hc hay m tn? tin c hay khng tin? c mt cht gi tr g khng?... S tn ti ca n n ngy hm nay chng t n c gi tr no  vi loi ngi. Trc ht mn t vi nhm vo ng tm l cn bn nht ca loi ngi l ham mun bit v qu kh, hin ti v tng lai ca mnh, nn n lun hp dn; th hai n khng gii quyt c rnh mch vn   nh ton hc nn lun to tm l nghi ng l m tn. Chng ti khng hy vng i vo gii quyt trn vn cc vn   m ch a ra mt gc nhn mi vi mn T vi gn vi khoa hc v nghip v thng k  c th gp phn no nhn nhn gi tr thc ca mn t vi hay c th c gi g  cho chng ta khi tc nghip m thi! Mn t vi do mt hc gi i Tng bn Trung Quc sng to nn,  l Trn on hiu Hy Di (ngay tn hiu ca ng cing c bit huyn b v  l hai t kh hiu nht ca Lo t trong cun o c Kinh  cu:  Nhn m khng thy gi l Di, Nghe m khng thu gi l Hy ); nghe ni ng da vo Kinh Dch v thuyt m Dng ngi hnh m xy dng ln mn T vi, nhng khng h c gii thch ti sao li th v cch thc th no?. Tuy nhin, qua hng nghn nm th cch lp l s cing khng c thay i g nhiu v ch da vo cc thng s sau: gi sinh, ngy sinh, thng sinh, nm sinh v nam hay n m thi! vi thng tin t i nh vy m c th gii p cc vn  phc tp (nh s phn, v chng, con ci, ti chnh, bnh tt, i li, bn b, ngh nghip, t ai nh ca,...) ca i ngi th tht l hp dn. Song tht s mi ngi khi xem T vi nhm mc ch g l mt cu hi cn t ra, chng ti tm phn loi thnh cc nhu cu xem T vi nh sau: - Xem  bit v qu kh, hin ti, tng lai, (v tin tng), - Xem  c thm thng tin tham kho cho mt quyt nh thc tin v cuc sng, - Xem chi thi, - Xem v n hp dn v nu c g s dng c th s dng cho cuc sng nh ci xin, lm nh,... -... Phn ng ngi xem T vi ri vo nhm th t, tuy vy theo chng ti th nhng ngi xem  nhm th hai gn vi gi tr thc ca T vi hn c v  cing l chnh ca bi vit ny. T nhng thng tin c nhn d dng lp nn l s t vi ca i tng v c sn  mi cun sch T vi hoc s dng mt phn mm sn c trn cc trang WEB v c bn c hnh thc 12 cung nh sau: Huynh  14Mnh 4Ph mu 124Phc c 114Phu th 24in trch 94T tc 34Quan lc 84Ti bch 44Tt ch 54Thin di 64N bc 74 ( y chng ti khng a ra v d y  mt l s T vi v khng cn thit vi bi vit ny) Chng ti tm chuyn dch ngh)a s lc cc t trong cc (T vi gi l cung) sang ngh)a thng thng l: - Mnh - s phn, (s mnh, bn mnh...) - Huynh  - anh em, (mi quan h,..) - Phu th - v chng, mi quan h tng t... - T tc - con ci, (mi quan h tng t...) - Ti bch - ti chnh (kh nng thu nhp chi tiu),... - Tt ch - bnh tt, (cc quan h vi bnh tt...) - Thin di - i li, (di c...) - N bc - bn b (ngi lm, ngi ,...), - Quan lc - ngh nghip (ni lm vic, chc v...), - in trch - nh t,... - Phc c (truyn thng, m m...), - Ph mu - cha m.... Ni hm ca cc khi nim ny trong t vi c th a dng v phc tp hn, thng mang tnh tng hp hn li suy ngh) tch bch hin nay v cc khi nim trn v rt kh  chuyn ht ngh)a m ngn gn, tin cho bi vit, nn mong bn c thng cm cho cch chuyn ngh)a lm dng d bt b ny; 12 khi nim ny t ra rt gn gii v ph bin vi mi ngi tr hai cung: s phn v phc c l tm linh, v chng l cc khi nim x hi hc kh (ng hn l khng th) nh lng. Ti bi vit ny chng ti khng i vo vic an hn mt trm sao vo cc cung; cn cc s 4, 14, 24,... cc i hn 4-13 tui, 14-23 tui, 24-33 tui... l khong thi gian tui ca i tng c xem xt tng ng vi cc cung c ghi s  (Trong t vi c 5 loi xut pht l 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 -  v d ny l 4). V khng tin i vo cc k thut lp nn mong bn c tin tng v chp nhn cch gii thiu s lc ny, ch gii thiu cc cung vi cc thng tin t i nh vy. Trc ht xin gii thiu cch xem mt cung trong mn t vi.  xem mt cung trong mn t vi ti thiu (trong t vi th phc tp v nhiu cch xem hn) cn phi kt hp xem cc cung: trc chiu, tam hp chiu v cung gip.  r cc khi nim trc chiu, hp chiu hay gip ta xt v d sau: V d 1, nh xem cung tt ch ( bit bnh tt) th phi xem thm cung ph mu l cung trc chiu, cung in trch v cung huynh  l hai cung hp chiu, cung ti bch v cung thin di l hai cung gip k. C ngh)a  bit v mt cung bnh tt th cn xem ti thiu su cung: bn thn cung bnh tt v cc cung cha m, anh em, nh t, ti chnh, i li. Theo ngn ng hin nay c th ni nh sau: mun bit bnh tt ca i tng cn bit thm mi quan h ca i tng vi cha m, nh t, anh em, ti chnh v kh nng i li. Hay ni c th hn l bnh tt ca mi con ngi lin quan n nm yu t na l: 1- Cha m, 2- Anh em, 3- Nh t, 4- Ti chnh, 5- Kh nng i li (xem s  trn) Vi kin thc ph thng ngy nay th ai cing hiu rng cha m vi bnh di truyn, bnh truyn nhim hay cch thc nui dng con,... c th l ngun gy bnh cho con ci, ngc li th con ci s c th khng c cc bnh di truyn, ly nhim m b m i tng khng c; thm na b m l thn nhn c trch nhim nui dng v h tr chnh cho con ci khi c bnh tt...; anh em vi cng huyt thng, mi trng sng v tip xc ln nhau cing nh vy...; nh t l mi trng sng cn bn ca con ngi c th l ngun gc cc bnh tt ny sinh nh do km v sinh, cht chi, nhim...; kh nng ti chnh trong trng hp i tng mc bnh tt l kh nng chi tr cho cha bnh, b dng sc kho..., kh nng i li l kh nng tip cn ni cha bnh hay tip cn ngun bnh...  l cc yu t tc ng n bnh tt cho con ngi trong ba mc: kh nng mc hay khng, kh nng cha tr nh th no, kh nng tip cn dch v khm cha bnh ra sao,... Ngy nay d cuc sng  nhiu thay i th bnh tt v kh nng qua khi bnh tt vn ph thuc rt nhiu vo nm yu t trn v gia chng c mi tng quan m ngi xa qua phng cch xem t vi cho l  quyt nh c cn ni theo ngn ng thng k ngy nay l chng c  tng quan cht ! Tht khng c g khc bit g nhiu lm! Ngy nay, khi gp phi vn  bnh tt mi c nhn cha chc JL      V X   , . &>BrtX\ͻxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ#hh5CJOJQJ^JaJhP5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hh9>5CJOJQJ^JaJ#hhP5CJOJQJ^JaJhhP5OJQJ^JaJhh9>5OJQJ^JaJ+L  & $$Ifa$gd$a$gd $p^pa$gd $`a$gdBF6 $p^pa$gd$a$gd \lnfh~ *4 (4>NXhǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶǶ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ&hhP56CJOJQJ^JaJ&hhP.56CJOJQJ^JaJH  &Rkd$$Ifl\O [a]@ t0644 la^ $$Ifa$gd&(6<>PVpddddd $$Ifa$gdkd$$Ifl4FO [a]`  t06    44 la^VXjppdddddddd $$Ifa$gdkd$$Ifl4FO [a]   t06    44 la^ hp~vHLNZ\lrDFHXZjp  & ( : @ v | ﷤﷤$hhP.@CJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP@CJOJQJ^JaJ'hhP.6@CJOJQJ^JaJ hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ<vLF ^VVVVVVVV$a$gdkd$$Ifl\O [a]@ t0644 la^  z !|!!!*")+00001`1[ `6`h````Rbcddee$a$gd !!!(!*!D!F!^!`!v!~!!!!!!!!!!!""("*"""####v$x$ %%N%P%%%%%&&&&&&&&&ɸɸɸɸɸɸɸɸɸɸɸɥ$hhP@CJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP.@CJOJQJ^JaJ hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP.@CJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP@CJOJQJ^JaJ9&'''(6(X(Z(0)2)))*r*t***++&+(+++++++(,*,J,L,,, -"-..j.|...../ /////0000Ƶ hhCJOJQJ^JaJhCJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ&hhP.56CJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP.@CJOJQJ^JaJ$hhP@CJOJQJ^JaJ400000001111"1$1(1*101216181:1J1L1N1R1X1Z1`122`2b222,3.3z3|3F4H444445555556666884868r8t888&;(;x;ﱿ￱ hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJhd!CJOJQJ^JaJ hd!hd!CJOJQJ^JaJ hhCJOJQJ^JaJhCJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJ?x;z;;;;XXX.Y0YYYYYYY ZZZZ[[[[[[,\.\J\L\\\\\\\&](]]](^*^4^6^r^v^^^^^^^J_L_v_x_`&`(`.`0`6`h`l`````ba hh9>CJOJQJ^JaJhCJOJQJ^JaJ hhCJOJQJ^JaJU hhP.CJOJQJ^JaJ hhPCJOJQJ^JaJD c cch nhn ton din hn ngi xa  gii quyt n nh xt ton din cc kh nng sau: kh nng ti chnh p ng cho nhu cu khm cha bnh ra sao, kh nng i li th no  tip cn ni khm cha kp thi, ng ni, ng ch,..., ngun gc bnh tt t u, kh nng h tr ca ngi thn ra sao... Cn chng ta khi c tin hnh cc cng tc nghip v, cc kho st hay iu tra c lin quan n vn  bnh tt th y l mt gi rt ng ch . V d 2: cung mnh  y th cn xem thm cc cung: Thin Di l cung trc chiu, cung Ti bch, cung Quan lc l cc cung hp chiu, v hai cung: Huynh , Ph mu l cc cung gip cnh cung Mnh. Nh vy, nu gii ngh)a theo ngn ng hin nay th ta c th ni nh sau: mun bit s phn ca i tng th cn bit v vn  i li (di c, hay thay i v tr a l...), vn  kh nng ti chnh (thu nhp, chi tiu...), vn  ngh nghip chc v v cc nh hng ca cha m, anh em vi i tng! Hay ni c th hn l s phn mi con ngi lin quan cht n nm yu t khc l: 1- i lai. 2- Ngh nghip, chc v, 3- Ti chnh, 4- Anh em, 5- Cha m, Du rng xa v nay cc chun mc v cuc sng c th thay i nhng cc vn  thit yu, gn gii nh trn vn l cc yu t cn bn cho nh gi v con ngi, d hiu v d chp nhn, nh ta vn thng ni: - "Anh A nh di c (thin di) n ni mi m thay i hn cuc i, ch  y th kh m ngc u ln c!" - Trong T vi l nh cung Thin di tt chng! - "Anh B nh ln chc v m i i!" - Nh cung Quan lc tt chng! - "Ch B nh c thu nhp cao m mun g c ny!" - Nh cung Ti bch chng? - "Cu y nh B m thi!" - Nh cung Ph mu chng? - "C y c anh em  hi ngoi gip cho m!" - Nh cung Huynh  chng? -...  l cc cch ni i thng ngy nay tch bch cc yu t tc ng, nhng m hng nghn nm trc ngi xa (Tin sinh Trn on)  a cc vn  nh vy vo trong tm quan st cho mt vn  th qu tht l c sc v bt ng! Khng phi mt yu t m t ra l nm yu t tc ng! Nh vy, qua hai v d trn c th thy nu xem T vi nh l tham kho thm thng tin hay tm cch nhn nhn nhng vn  x hi hc phi i mt v quyt nh th T vi qu l c gi tr no  nh gip cho ngi xem nhn vn  ton din hn trc khi bt tay vo gii quyt n. Mi cung cn li cing c cch xem (ti thiu) v ngh)a c bn nh hai v d trn v chng ti khng lit k v l gii na, bn c c th t suy ngm v chng n gin v gn gii vi cuc sng hng ngy ca con ngi. im th hai ca cch xem t vi l xem xt vn  theo thi gian m n gin nht trong t vi l chui i hn: c mi nm con ngi mun bit nhng vn  ca mnh trong khong thi gian  th xem vo cc c s tng ng! V nh trn s : t 4 n 13 tui xem  cung Mnh c s 4 (s phn), t 14 n 23 xem  cung huynh  (anh em), t 24 n 33 xem  cung phu th (v chng),... Ta th l gii:   tui 4-13 nhng kh nng sng st ca con ngi khi cn u th l tu thuc nhiu vo 5 yu t nh phn tch  v d 2 l ph thuc vo: cha m, anh em, i li, ti chnh, ngh nghip, ngoi tr yu t ngh nghip (cn s dng cho cc  tui sau) th ta thy khng c g bt hp l; ngoi ra ngi xa chc cn ng l bn thn mnh t tui cha l ch c c tnh hnh thin nhin v x hi,... nn th ng trc  s mnh m thi!; T 14 n 23 th mi quan h vi anh em v bn b, bnh tt, nh t, v chng,  s phn na quyt nh cuc sng con ngi ta; t 24 n 33 th vn  lp gia nh, quan h v chng cng vi: ngh nghip, i li, phc c, con ci, anh em s quyt nh,... Ngy nay chng ta thng quan st khong cch nh hn hay ln hn nhng a ra li quan st theo mt khong thi gian 10 nm l mt tin b ca T vi mang n cho nhng ai mun nhn chn nhng yu t nh hng quan trng n cuc sng ca mnh, l thay  cch nay hng nghn nm! Cch quan st (c bit hng v tng lai) ny c th gip mi ngi quy hoch cuc sng cho ph hp vi din bin tm sinh l v quan h x hi ca con ngi theo thi gian v cc hot ng sng c bn nh ly v,  con, lm nh, ngh nghip hay tch lu sn nghip,... Phn tch vn  x hi hc theo thng k chui thi gian ngy nay l quen thuc vi chng ta, song lc phc ra m hnh  cho  s phn con ngi th qu l kh tin v hp dn! Mc  hiu qu ca cch thc ny th no chng ti khng dm qu quyt v kh m thc hin kho st thc tin cho cc nghin cu i hi ko di c cuc i con ngi! Song thc c v ch ng kim sot cuc i mi ngi (da trn cc thng tin rt t i) chc s tt hn vi cuc sng th ng  cc yu t tng quan li ko theo cc chiu hng khng bit trc! Thng qua xem xt hng lot vn  x hi hc trong mi "tng quan" ln nhau, xem xt chng theo "chui thi gian"&  phn on v thc tin, xu hng ca n& r rng l mt cch xem xt ton din, bin chng hn l xem xt cc vn  tch bit.  l u th ca T vi so vi cc phng php c xa khc vi cc vn  x hi hc. Tuy vy, mt vn  chu nhiu mi tc ng "tng quan" ca nhiu yu t khc nhau, c bit chng li gn nh khng nh lng c  gii quyt nh mt gii php ton hc, th quyt on v thc tin, d bo v tng lai l rt kh khn v thng chu nhiu sai lch. y l hai mt dn n cc i hi cc oan v mn t vi ng: chnh xc hon ton hay sai hon ton. Hon ton tin hay khng tin cht no& Tuy nhin, gn gng, da vo thng tin t i ban u, phng cch d hiu, nhn cc vn  trong mi tng quan&  gii quyt cc vn  x hi hc phc tp -  phi chng l thng ip c lu gi n gin, thng qua nhng cch xem v gii on ca ngi xa cho hu th qua mn T vi - m thng c gi l huyn b ny. Vi nhng trnh by rt s lc trn y, chng ti hy vng rng  a ra c cho c gi cc gi khi nhn nhn mt vn  nghi vn khoa hc lu i v mt mc  no  cch thc ny vn cn c gi tr khi chng ta s dng cc cng c thng k hin i  nghin cu x hi v con ngi ngy nay. 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