ࡱ> @ DbjbjFF (,,|<.V.V.V.8.d..͝d00000000(******$1RN9|400|4|4N00<<<|4^00(<|4(<<<00 0xV.l<0͝<YzY<..Y<P01<D22000NN..%(2 ..(P DNG M HNH I-O MI TRNG TRONG HOCH NH CHIN LC V QUY HOCH PHT TRIN BN VNG TI VIT NAM VS. TS. Nguyn Trn Dng GS.TSKH. Nguyn Quang Thi TSKH. Trn Trng Khu Bi Trinh I. p dng I/O trong nh gi nh lng tng quan gia tng trng kinh t v bin ng mi trng 1. Tip cn h thng trong nh gi v d bo cc quan h nh lng gia cc qu trnh tng trng kinh t, cng nghip ho, hin i ho,  th ho ti Vng kinh t trng im pha Nam (KTTPN) vi cc bin ng mi trng trn a bn; 2. Kt hp cc phng php m hnh v chuyn gia trong nh gi v d bo cc bin ng mi trng, ti lng nhim trn a bn nghin cu; 3. Kt hp cc phng php m hnh (kinh t kinh trc,& ngoi suy v chuyn gia) trong d bo cc qu trnh kinh t - x hi,  p dng m hnh I/O trong nh gi nh lng tng quan gia tng trng kinh t v bin ng mi trng. 4. Xc nh ranh gii, phm vi ca m hnh I/O mi trng cho Vng KTTPN. Vng VKTTPN c xc nh trong phm vi ranh gii hnh chnh ca 4 tnh, thnh ph: Tp.H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Bnh Dng, B Ra - Ving Tu. L Trung tm kinh t - x hi ca khu vc Nam B v Nam Trung B, cc qu trnh kinh t - x hi, c bit l cc din bin mi trng c nhng nh hng qua li kh mt thit, thm ch, trc tip, vi cc vng ph cn (trn lu vc sng ng Nai - Si Gn v lu vc sng M Kng). R rng l cc mi quan h ny cn c tnh ti trong I/O mi trng cho Vng KTTPN. Cc d liu v tng trng kinh t v d bo cc xu th tng trng ca Vng KTTPN c thu thp v x l theo 3 hng sau: ( Chui s liu tng trng thc theo gi thc t giai on 1996-2002; ( S liu tng trng theo quy hoch; ( D bo tng trng theo m hnh kinh trc. 5. Hin trng mi trng Vng ng Nam B. C nhiu cng trnh nghin cu nh gi hin trng mi trng Vng ng Nam B, Vng KTTPN v cc tnh trong khu vc. S b chn xut pht im cho vic thu thp, x l d liu, cng trnh tng hp gn y nht c nghin cu phn tch l cng trnh ca nhm tc gi do TS. Phng Ch S ch tr  ng dng cc m hnh ton kt hp vi GIS  d bo xu th bin i cht lng mi trng khng kh ti Vng KTTPN ;  Ngun gc nhim do cht thi rn Vng KTTPN (Phng Ch S, L ng Hi);  D bo ti lng nhim trn lu vc sng ng Nai (Phng Ch S), L ng Hi). 6. La chn v xy dng m hnh tnh ton I/O mi trng cho Vng KTTPN v cc phn mm tng ng. S dng d liu GDP gi thc t v GDP tnh theo sc mua tng ng (PPP)  cc kt qu gn hn vi bn cht ca ma trn vt l, nhm s dng cch tip cn ny trong xy dng I/O mi trng Vng KTTPN; S dng cc d liu o c c ti Vng KTTPN  xc nh cc h s trong cc phng trnh tng quan tng trng - pht thi, ng thi vi vic lp m hnh I/O tng ng vi cc c trng vt l ca cc qu trnh tng trng KT-XH mang tnh di truyn cho giai on 2005- 2010. II. Kt qu tnh ton m hnh I/O mi trng v nhng nhn xt ban u v mi quan h gia tng trng kinh t vi lng pht thi ca vng kinh t trng im pha nam Vng KTTPN c tng sn phm theo vng chim trn 30% trong t trng tng sn phm trong nc ca ton b nn kinh t. BNG 1: GDP C NC V GRDP CA VNG KTTPN QUA CC NM n v: t ng 199619971998199920002001Tng sn phm ca vng KTTPN (GRDP)73.911.46183.360.50392.591.940112.500.052138.040.666151.779.153Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)272.036.000313.623.000361.017.000399.942.000441.646.000484.493.000T trng so vi c nc (%)27,1726,5825,6528,1331,2631,331. V tc  tng trng T nm 1996 n nm 2002 cng vi s chuyn mnh ca kinh t c nc, kinh t Vng KTTPN lin tc tng trng vi tc  cao; nm 1997 l 12,31%, nm 1999 l 10,32% v nm 2002 c tnh khong 9,68%. Nh vy sau mt thi gian t tc  tng trng cao, kinh t Vng c xu hng tng trng chm li bi nhiu nguyn nhn khch quan v ch quan. Thng thng mt nn kinh t khng th coi tc  pht trin nm sau cao hn nm trc  l tt, mt nn kinh t mi pht trin  nhng nm u thng c tc  tng trng cao (iu ny ph thuc vo gc), sau  khi i vo n nh tc  tng trng thng chm li. Tng trng kinh t ca Vng KTTPN ph thuc nhiu vo tng trng kinh t ca cc ngnh cng nghip ch bin, cng nghip khai thc v cng nghip in, nc. Lin tc trong 5 nm lin (t nm 1997 n nm 2001) cc ngnh cng nghip c tc  pht trin trn 15% cho thy qu trnh cng nghip ho, hin i ho ang t c nhng kt qu rt kh quan. Bn cnh , khu vc I (gm cc ngnh nng, lm nghip v thu sn) cing c nhng thnh tu ng k, tc  tng trng chung lin tc tng ln qua cc nm; c bit l ngnh thu sn c bc tng vt trong vng 6 nm qua (nm 1997 so vi 1996 l 97,42%; n nm 2001 so vi nm 2000 l 118,02% v c tnh nm 2002 t 129,61% so vi nm 2001). Tc  tng ca khu vc III (khu vc dch v) cing t  mc cao so vi mc tng chung ca cc ngnh  trong c nc. 2. V c cu kinh t Nu xem xt xu hng qua cc nm ca 3 khu vc th c cu ca khu vc I gim dn (t 7,1% nm 1996 cn 4,42% nm 2001); khu vc II tng dn t 49,30% nm 1996 tng ln 61,01% nm 2001; v khu vc III cing c xu hng gim nh,  cing l xu hng ca c nc trong nhng nm gn y. Nt c th ca c cu kinh t Vng KTTPN l t trng ca khu vc II chim rt cao trong tng sn phm ca Vng (chim trn di 50% trong khi t trng chung ca khu vc II so vi GDP ca c nc ch chim khong trn di 30%). iu ny c gii thch bi cng nghip khai thc ch yu l khai thc du th ca tnh B Ra - Ving Tu chim t trng rt ln trong tng sn lng ca Tnh. Mt vi phc tho v hot ng ca cc ngnh kinh t trong Vng KTTPN qua s liu v tng sn phm ca vng cha th phn nh y  thc trng pht trin kinh t ca Vng trong thi gian qua. Ch tiu GRDP, cing nh mt vi ch tiu khc ca ti khon sn xut ch phn nh c mt phn no  trong bc tranh ton cnh ca hot ng kinh t Vng.  c ci nhn ton din hn cn phi t n trong mi quan h logic vi cc ch tiu khc ca mt m hnh ton kinh t  th hin y  vai tr, v tr ca n trong h thng cc ch tiu kinh t ni chung. 3. Mt s nhn xt t m hnh I/O v kinh t v mi trng a. V kinh t M hnh I/O l mt m hnh ton kinh t thng c s dng trong vic phn tch mi quan h cung - cu ca nn kinh t trn c s phn tch nhn t sn lng (output multiplier - OM) v mi quan h ngc (backward linkage - BL) t cu n cung ca nn kinh t. Mi quan h ngc ny c th hiu qua v d sau: khi cu ca sn phm A l mt n v th lng cung  p ng lng cu  l 3 n v, v  c 3 n v cung  li cn 1 lng l 1,6 n v sn phm khc lm chi ph u vo  sn xut ra lng cung ; lng sn phm lm chi ph ph u vo ny chnh l th hin mi quan h ngc t cu n cung. Khi gi tr ca khon chi ph (1,6)  sn xut ra mt lng cung nhm p ng i hi ca cu cng ln th ngnh  cng nh hng nhiu ti nn kinh t. Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch da vo cc mi quan h   a ra cc chnh sch ph hp cho nn kinh t. Thng qua m hnh I/O nm 1996 ca Tp. H Ch Minh v cp nht s liu t iu tra lp bng I/O nm 2000 ca c nc, chng ti cp nht th nghim m hnh I/O ca Vng KTTPN cho nm 2000 vi mt s nhm ngnh ln v ba khu vc. 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