ࡱ> 5@ &bjbj22 ,XX ?3338.4T54e(6L7$7$7$78B969TVVVVVV$Rߎz:88"::z$7$7@@@:C$7$7T@:T@ @``$76 O~K3~` 50e`o^o`o`HF9Z9@@94:F9F9F9zz)r+*r+TC  TNG NNG SUT CC NHN T TNG HP CA CNG NGHIP VIT NAM GIAI ON 1991-2003 PGS.TS. Tng Vn Khin  tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (vit tt ting Anh l TFP), nu theo phng php hm sn xut Cobb-Douglass cn c s liu v 3 ch tiu gi tr tng thm (i vi tng ngnh) hoc tng sn phm quc ni i vi ton nn kinh t quc dn; vn hoc ti sn c nh v lao ng lin tc nhiu nm. Tnh theo phng php hch ton th s liu v 3 ch tiu trn khng nht thit phi lin tc nhiu nm nhng ngoi cc ch tiu  cn phi c thm s liu v thu nhp ca ngi lao ng c hch ton y   tnh cc h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng ((). Tuy nhin, cing cn phi thy rng s liu  tnh ton tc  tng TFP c c im ring, gia ch tiu gi tr ti sn c nh v kt qu sn xut c  tr thi gian (tng thm ti sn c nh phi sau mt thi gian mi mang li kt qu sn xut), v trong  hng nm ti sn c nh li tng ln khng u n. iu  nh hng ng k n kt qu tnh ton tc  tng TFP. Cho nn s liu v tc  tng TFP tnh cho tng nm ch c tnh cht b sung phc v cho phn tch su v nghin cu xu th tng gim ca tc  tng TFP. Cn  nh gi hiu qu chung, phn tch cht lng tng trng tin b khoa hc cng ngh mt cch khi qut v c tnh cht chnh thng th phi l s liu tnh bnh qun cho nhiu nm, v t nht cing phi l 5 nm. S liu v cc ch tiu gi tr tng thm, gi tr ti sn c nh v lao ng phc v cho yu cu tnh ton tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp ca cng nghip t nm 1990 n nm 2003  c V Thng k Cng nghip v Xy dng phi hp vi Vin Khoa hc Thng k tin hnh khai thc, x l, loi tr bin ng gi v h thng li t nhiu nm nay. T s liu  tnh c cc tc  tng ca cc ch tiu tng ng nh ct 1, 2 v 3 bng 1. V h s ng gp ca lao ng (()  da theo s liu v thu nhp ca ngi lao ng v gi tr tng thm theo gi hin hnh c trong bng I/O nm 2000 ca Tng cc Thng k  tnh ton (tnh h s ( ca cng nghip cho nm 2000). Trn c s h s ( tnh c cho nm 2000 v s liu v thu nhp ca ngi lao ng v gi tr tng thm theo gi hin hnh ca cc nm t 1991 n 2003 c trong h thng s liu thng k cng nghip, tin hnh tnh ton, iu chnh v c lng cc h s ( cho tt c cc nm cn li. Khi  c ( d dng tnh c cc h s ( tng ng (( = 1 - (). S liu v cc h s ( v ( tnh c c  cc ct 4 v 5 bng 1. C c s liu v tc  tng ca 3 ch tiu gi tr tng thm, gi tr ti sn c nh, lao ng v cc h s ( v ( ta tip tc tnh ton tc  tng gi tr tng thm do tng ti sn c nh v lao ng v tc  tng TFP nh cc ct 6, 7 v 8 ca bng 1. BNG 1. TNH TON TC  TNG TFP CA CNG NGHIP VIT NAM NmTc  tng (%)H s ng gpTc  tng GTTT do tng (1)Tc  tng TFP(2)Gi tr tng thmTSCLao ngCa TSCCa LTSC ng gpL ng gpiiYiKiL(((iK(iLiTFPA123456=4x27=5x38=1-(6+7)199112,9612,28-0,130,5500,4506,75-0,066,27199217,6110,61-0,490,5480,4525,81-0,2212,01199314,2012,923,720,5470,4537,071,695,45199413,2015,172,220,5320,4688,071,044,09199513,0217,187,560,5200,4808,943,630,46199613,4918,292,950,5310,4699,711,382,39199712,6917,472,260,5280,4729,221,072,3919989,7313,353,990,5240,4767,001,900,8319998,9912,536,170,5250,4756,582,93-0,53200013,7810,9011,830,5200,4805,675,682,43200116,7215,8311,390,5170,4838,195,503,03200213,7713,9412,240,5110,4897,125,980,67200313,4412,9111,380,5110,4896,605,561,28B/q 91-0313,3314,085,680,5280,4727,442,683,21Ghi ch: (1) Tc  tng gi tr tng thm do ng gp ca ti sn c nh (ct 6) bng h s ng gp ca ti sn c nh (() nhn vi tc  tng ca ti sn c nh ( EMBED Equation.3 ), v tc  tng gi tr tng thm do ng gp ca lao ng (ct 7) bng h s ng gp ca lao ng (() nhn vi tc  tng ca lao ng ( EMBED Equation.3 ) (2) Tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp ( EMBED Equation.3 - ct 8) c tnh theo phng php hch ton qua cng thc  EMBED Equation.3  vi mi quan h ca cc ct trong bng [ct 8 = 1-(6+7)].. 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""""""#"("."4":"@"F"K"P"U"V"["a"v:`v:!v:v:v:v:`v:`v:v:`v:!v:v:v:v:`v:`v:v:`v:Ff .Ff*$<$7$8$H$Ifa$gds!iFfe'$<$Ifa$gds!ia"g"m"s"y"~""""""""""""""""""""!v:v:v:v:`v:`v:v:`v:!v:v:v:v:`v:`v:v:`v:!v:v:v:v:Ff4$<$7$8$H$Ifa$gds!iFfa1$<$Ifa$gds!i""""""&Z(r2ssss t`v:`v:v:! v:?v:$PP$7$8$H$Ifa$gdS$$7$8$H$Ifa$gd%$dx7$8$H$a$gdM$x7$8$H$a$gdS $7$8$H$a$gd%$x7$8$H$a$gd&JFf8$<$Ifa$gds!i """""$$$ $$$$$ $&$($0$2$:$<$@$B$J$L$R$T$Z$\$b$d$j$l$p$r$z$~$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$%% %%%%%%͹& jah%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ h&Jh%CJOJQJ^JaJI%$%&%*%,%4%8%:%`%b%d%f%l%p%r%x%z%~%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%&&&&&&&& &&&(&0&4&ޱ-j":h%hMCJEHOJQJU^JaJ/jnE h%hMCJOJQJUV^JaJ)jh%hMCJOJQJU^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ:4&6&:&B&D&J&L&R&T&X&Z&b&d&j&l&r&t&|&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&'''''8'۵۝۵-jJ<h%hMCJEHOJQJU^JaJ/jnE h%hMCJOJQJUV^JaJ)jh%hMCJOJQJU^JaJ h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ& jbh%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ.8':'<'>'B'H'P'X'Z'b'd'l'n'z'|'''''''''''''''''''''''''(( (лj-j@h%hMCJEHOJQJU^JaJ/jJzE h%hMCJOJQJUV^JaJ h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJ)jh%hMCJOJQJU^JaJ-js>h%hMCJEHOJQJU^JaJ/j@zE h%hMCJOJQJUV^JaJ) ( (((((&(((0(4(:(Z(`(b(h(j(p(r(z(|((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((()) ) )))))")$)()*)2)4):)<)D)F)L)N)V)X)d)f)n)p)v)x)|)~)))))))))) h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJX))))))))))))))))))))))*rr r rrrrr&r(r.r0r4r6r>r@rHrJrRrTrZr\rbrdrlrnrvrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr˼h%hMCJOJQJaJh%h%CJOJQJaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJU h%h%CJOJQJ^JaJ h%hMCJOJQJ^JaJD tng thm ca tng nm v bnh qun gia cc nm giai on 1991 - 2003 nh bng 2. BNG 2. T PHN NG GP CA TC  TNG CC NHN T N TC  TNG GI TR TNG THM CA TON CNG NGHIP NmTc  tng GTTTT phn ng gp trong kt qu tng ln ca GTTTDo tng TSC v LTng TFPTng sChia ra doTng TSCTng LA12=3+4345199112,9651,6552,11-0,4648,35199217,6131,7833,02-1,2568,22199314,2061,6449,7611,8738,36199413,2069,0361,167,8830,97199513,0296,4968,6127,883,51199613,4982,2772,0010,2717,73199712,6981,1272,708,4218,8819989,7391,4371,9219,508,5719998,99105,8773,2332,64-5,87200013,7882,3641,1441,2217,64200116,7281,8748,9732,9018,13200213,7795,1651,7143,454,84200313,4490,4849,0941,409,52B/q 91-0313,3375,9055,7720,1224,10Ghi ch: Ct 2 + ct 5 = 100 Cing s liu tnh c v tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp ca ton cng nghip qua cc nm  bng 1. Qua s liu tnh ton c ca cc bng 1 v 2 cing nh biu din kt qu tnh ton qua s  1 v tc  tng TFP ca ton cng nghip Vit Nam t 1991 n 2003, ta nhn thy: Cng nghip Vit Nam t nm 1991 n 2003 c tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp phn ln cc nm u tng (12 nm tng v 1 nm gim) song tng khng u v tng cn thp. Nm 1992 tng cao nht (12,01%), tip n nm 1991 (6,27%) v nm 1993 (5,45%), cc nm 1995, 1998 v 2002 tng  mc di 1% (t 0,46% n 0,83%). Ring nm 1999 tc  tng TFP gim 0,53%. Tuy nhin TFP ca cng nghip xt theo c thi k di th tnh bnh qun chung gia cc nm thi k 1991-2003 vn tng (3,21%). Xt theo xu th tng th t nm 1991-1997 nng sut cc nhn t tng hp tng kh hn. n nm 1998 gim i v c bit thp  nm 1999, t nm 2000-2003 nng sut cc nhn t tng hp bt u tng ln nhng vn thp hn tc  tng giai on 1991-1997, v do vy tc  tng bnh qun nm thi k 1996-2003 thp hn mc bnh qun chung c thi k 1991-2003 (1,62% so vi 3,21%). Xt v c cu ng gp i vi tc  tng ca gi tr tng thm ta thy nhng nm t 1991 n 1997 (tr 1995) tng TFP ng gp kh ln (t 17,73% n 68,22%). Nm 1998 n 1999 ng gp t hn (ring nm 1999 ng gp  m . V n nhng nm 2000 tr i t l ng gp c cao hn nhng vn km nhng nm u. Khi tnh bnh qun nm thi k 1991-2003 ca cng nghip tng do tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp c mc ng gp 24,10%; ng v tr th hai sau mc ng gp ca tng ti sn c nh (55,77%). ng  v tr cui cng l mc ng gp ca tng lao ng (20,12%) cn nu tnh bnh qun nm thi k t 1996-2003 th tng TFP ng gp  mc di 15%. C th ni rng trong hn chc nm qua sn xut ca cng nghip Vit Nam c phn ln cc nm c tc  tng GTTT t trn 10%. Duy c 2 nm 1998 v 1999 ch tiu ny t 9,73% v 8,99% (do nh hng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh trong khu vc) v cing chnh l 2 nm c TFP thp. Ring nm 1999 nng sut cc nhn t tng hp gim 0,53%. Trn c s tnh ton v phn tch tc  tng TFP cho thy tc  tng trng v gi tr tng thm trn y ca cng nghip ch yu vn l do m rng quy m sn xut bng cch u t thm vn tc l  lm tng gi tr ti sn c nh. Tc ng ca cc yu t i mi sn xut, nng cao trnh  khoa hc cng ngh, hp l ho sn xut, nng cao cht lng lao ng,v.v... (cc nhn t cht lng) c lm tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp, tc l gp phn lm tng gi tr tng thm, nhng cn  mc khim tn. iu  cing c ngh)a cht lng tng trng trong cng nghip tuy  c tin b, song cing cn nhiu hn ch. 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