The General Statistics Office (GSO) provides general data showing the implementation of the country’s 2009 social-economic development plan in three aspects: (1) preventing economic decline, maintaining a sensible and sustainable economic growth; (2) stabilizing the macro-economy, proactively preventing a return of high inflation; (3) ensuring social security, developing culture, education and health care and other social fields.
Preventing economic decline, maintaining a sensible and sustainable economic growth
Following the impetus of economic recession in months of 2008 year-end, GDP growth gained only 3.14% in the first quarter of 2009-the quarter of lowest growth rate in recent year; however, it gradually increased to 4.46%, 6.04% and 6.9% in the second, third and fourth quarters respectively. Generally for the whole year of 2009, GDP increased by 5.32%, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector rose by 1.83%; the industry and construction by 5.52%; and the services by 6.63%.
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
The production value of this sector at 1994 constant prices in the first six months of 2009 was estimated at VND 97.1 trillion, increasing by 2.76% as against same period last year, but it was VND122.8 trillion in the second half of 2009, rising by 3.16% as against same period in 2008. The production value of this sector at 1994 constant prices in 2009 was estimated increasing by 3% as against 2008, of which, agriculture grew by 2.2%, forestry by 3.8% and fishery by 5.4%.
The yield of grains food in 2009 was estimated at 43.3 million tons, growing by 24.4 thousand tons as compared to 2008, of which rice yield was 38.9 million tons, increasing by 165,700 tons; maize: 4.4 million tons, reduced by 141.3 thousand tons.
The cultivated area for tea in 2009 was 128,100 ha, growing 2,600 ha; coffee: 537,000 ha, growing 6,100 ha; rubber: 674,200 ha, going up by 42,800 ha; pepper: 50,500 ha, up by 600 ha as against last year. The yield of several perennial plants was increasing well, of which the tea-bud yield was estimated at 798,800 tons, increasing by 7% as against 2008 (the area of which tea-bud was cut rose by 2.7%; productivity rose by 4.2%); rubber: 723,700 tons, up by 9.7% (the area of which rubber plant gave latex rose by 5.6%; productivity rose 3.8%); pepper: 105,600 tons, up by 7.2% (the area that gave products rose by 4.5%; productivity rose 2.6%).
Animal husbandry, particularly the concentrated and large-scale breeding continued developing. According to the farming survey at 01/7/2009, the number of farms rose by 18.5% as against same period last year.
According to the animal husbandry survey at 01/10/2009, the country had 27,627.7 thousand pigs, growing by 3.5%; 280.2 million heads of poultry, growing by 12.8%; 2,886.6 thousand buffalos, decreased by 0.4%; 6,103.3 thousand oxen, reduced by 3.7%. The decrease was mainly in draught animals (draught buffalos reduced by 4.7% and draught oxen by 15.6%). However, the animal husbandry production in 2009 was still good, of which, the live-weight buffalo meat for slaughter was estimated at 75,000 tons, rose by 4.8%; beef: 257,800 tons, up by 13.7%; pork: 2,931.4 thousand tons, up by 4.5%; poultry meat: 502,800 tons, up by 12.2%; and 5,952.1 million poultry eggs, going up by 9% as against same period in 2008.
The concentrated forestation area over the country in 2009 was at an estimate of 212,000 ha, growing by 5.9%; replantation area was 1,032,000 ha, rising by 5.2%; there were 180.4 million dispersed plants, reduced by 1.8%; forest area under care was 486,000 ha, rose by 4.3%. Woodcut production was 3,766,700 m3, increasing by 5.7% as against same period last year.
Total forest damaged area in 2009 was 3,221 ha, decreased by 18.8% as against 2008, of which there were 1,658 ha of forest fire, fell by 1.2% and 1,563 ha of chopped-down forest, reduced by 30.3%.
The total estimated fishing production in 2009 was 4,847,600 tons, rising by 5.3% as against same period last year, of which, there were 3,654,100 tons of fish, rose by 5.3%; 537,700 tons of shrimp, rose by 7.2%.
Farmed production in 2009 was at an estimate of 2,569,900 tons, rose by 4.2% as against last year. Generally, the number of cages for aquaculture in 2009 was 98,400, grew by 12,600 cages (14.7%) as against 2008.
The fish caught production in 2009 was estimated at 2,277,700 tons, grew by 6.6% as against last year (the highest rate since 8 last years), of which sea caught production gained 2,086,700 tons, increasing by7.2%.
Generally for the whole year of 2009, the industrial production value was estimated at VND 696.6 trillion, grew by 7.6% as against 2008, of which, the state sector rose by 3.7%; the non-state sector by 9.9%; the FDI sector by 8.1% (petroleum and gas by 9.2%, others by 8%).
Total retailed sales of consumer goods and services
The total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in 2009 at current prices were at an estimate of VND 1,197.5 trillion, rose by 18.6%; If the factor of price rising was excluded, the increase was 11% as against 2008.
Of the total increased rate, the individual sector rose by 20.3%; the private sector by 22.9%; the state sector by 1.4%; the FDI sector by 9.5% and the collective sector by 18.8%. If it was considered by business, the trade rose by 18.6%; the hotel and restaurant by 18.4%; the service by 20.3 and the tourist by 1.9%.
Passenger carriage in 2009 was at an estimate of increasing by 8.2% by the number of carried passengers and 6.2% by the number of passengers-kilometers as against 2008, of which the land transport rose by 8.6% and 9.3%; the river by 4.5% and 4.6%; the rail decreased by 2.6% and 7.9%; the aviation rose by 4.2% and decreased by 1.6% respectively.
The volume of cargos carried in 2009 was at an estimate of growing 4.1% by the number of carried cargos and 8.6% by the number of tons-kilometers as against last year, of which: the transport within the country rose by 5.6% and 5.3%; the transport without the country reduced by 2.5% and rose by 9.6% respectively. The land transport in 2009 was estimated increasing 5.2% by tons and by 8.2% by tons-kilometers compared to same period in 2008; the river by 2.3% and 2%; the sea reduced by 1% and rose by 10%; the rail decreased by 4.9% and 8.8% respectively.
There were estimated 41,7 million new telephone subscribers in 2009, rose by 40.8% as against 2008, of which 4 million were desk telephone subscribers, rising by 43.1% and 37.7 million mobile phone subscribers, up by 40.5%. To end of 12/2009, the number of telephone subscribers over the country was at an estimate of 123 million, growing by 51.3% as against same period last year, including 18.1 million desk telephone subscribers, up by 28.4% and 104.9 million mobile phone subscribers, up by 56.1%.
The number of broadband internet subscribers to end of 12/2009 was at an estimate of 3 million, rose by 45.5% as against same period in 2008. The number of internet users to end of 2009 was estimated at 22.9 million, increasing by 10.3% as against same period last year. Total postal and communication service net incomes in 2009 were at an estimate of VND 94.9 trillion, rising by 39.7% as against 2008.
Stabilizing the macro-economy
Investment and development
Total realised investment capital in 2009 at current prices was estimated increasing by 15.3% as against 2008 and equal 42.8% of GDP, of which the state sector rose by 40.5%; the non-state sector by 13.9%; the FDI sector decreased by 5.8%. Of the capital investment from the state sector, the funding from the state budget took 21.8% of the country’s total investment, equaling 106.8% of the yearly estimate.
Government revenues and expenditures
As estimated, total Government revenues from beginning of the year to 15/12/2009 was approximate to the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenues accounted for 102.5%; revenues from crude oil was equal 86.7%; revenues from import-export: 101.6%. Of the domestic revenues, receiving from the state-owned enterprises equaled 106.2%; from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil): 88.8%; from non-state industrial, commercial and service taxes: 95.6%; taxes imposed on high-income persons: 87%; petroleum fees: 157.5%; and other fees: 90.8%.
As estimated, total Government expenditures from beginning of the year to 15/12/2009 was equal 96.2% of the yearly estimate. Of which, spending for investment and development accounted for 95.2% (only spending for capital construction was 93.4%); for economic and social development, national defense and security: 99.6%; for paying debts and aids: 102.7%. The Government overspending in 2009 was 7% of GDP.
The export turnovers in 2009 were at an estimate of USD 56.6 billion, showing a drop of 9.7% as against 2008.
The import turnovers in 2009 were at an estimate of USD 68.8 billion, down by 14.7% as against 2008. Of which, the domestic economic sector gained USD 43.9 billion, fell by 16.8%; the FDI sector: USD 24.9 billion fell by 10.8%.
Although the decreased rate of the import turnovers was higher than that of the export turnovers, the trade deficits in 2009 was still at an estimate of USD 12.2 billion, reduced by 32.1% as against 2008 and equal 21.6% of 2009’s total export turnovers.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The 2009’s average CPI increased by 6.88% as against 2008- the lowest rate since last six years (CPI average growth was 7.71% in 2004, 8.29% in 2005, 7.48% in 2006, 8.3% in 2007 and 22.97% in 2008).
Ensuring social security, developing culture, education and health care and other social fields
Total damages caused by natural calamity in 2009 were estimated at nearly VND 23.2 trillion, doubling in 2008. Total donations from various sources to support affected localities were VND 888.6 billion and over 25,000 tons of rice, of which the relief amount of money from the central reserve fund was VND 750 billion, and more than 25,000 tons of rice.
In 2009, 37,600 houses for the poor and policy-supported people were newly built and repaired with total value reaching VND 400 billion; 5 million times of policy-supported people were provided with health insurance cards and free health examining and treating.
According to local reports, in 2009 there were 676,500 times of household with 2,973,300 times of member over the country suffered from food shortage, decreased 29.4% by times of household and 26.2% by times of member suffered from food shortage compared to last year. To overcome the food-shortage, administrative levels, economic sectors and localities have supported affected families 43,000 tons of food and VND 65.2 billion. Only in 12/2009, the supported amount was 5,300 tons of food and VND 23.9 billion.
The life of employees and workers has been also improved. The average income per month per employee in the state sector in 2009 was VND 3,084,800, increasing by 14.2% compared to 2008, of which central employee’s income was VND 3,979,100, rising by16.1% and local employee’s income was VND 2,532,900, rising by 13%.
The general rate of poor households in 2009 over the country was at an estimate of 12.3%, which was lower than the rates of 14.8 % in 2007 and 13.4% in 2008.
Education & training
In the 2008-2009 school year, the country had 444,000 classrooms for all three educational levels, rose 5,400 rooms as against last school year. Presently, there have been 8,672 kindergartens and general schools over the country meeting the national standard, of which there were 1,644 kindergartens; 5,254 primary schools; 1,573 junior secondary schools and 201 senior secondary schools. To December 2009, there have been 48/63 localities meeting the standard for compulsory primary education within the primary school ages and 56/63 localities meeting the standard for compulsory junior secondary education.
To the closure of August 2009, there have been 376 universities, institutes and junior colleges, including 150 universities and institutes, and 226 junior colleges. 62/63 provinces/central cities had universities and junior colleges. University/college students in the 2008-2009 school year were 1.72 million, increasing by 7% compared to last school year and meeting the criterion of over 200 students per 10,000 people, beyond one year over the provided plan, 625,800 students of professional secondary schools, increasing by 1.8%.
Much attention and investment have been paid to the vocational training, so in 2009, vocational training establishments selected 1,645 thousand times of persons, exceeding 0.3% over the provided plan.
Culture & sport
Many cultural and art performance and sport activities and festivals have been held in many provinces.
In high performance sport games, the Vietnamese team gained 879 medals (341 gold, 276 silver and 262 bronze medals). In the 3rd Asian Indoor Games (AIG 3) held in Viet Nam, the Vietnamese team ranked second over total 43 participated teams and gained 94 medals, including 42 gold, 30 silver and 22 bronze medals. Especially, in the SEA Games 25, the Vietnamese team ranked second over total 11 participated teams with records of 83 gold, 75 silver and 57 bronze medals.
PROBLEMS AND SHORTCOMINGS
Additional to above-said achievements, there still exist limitations and weaknesses in the 2009 social and economic situation, which require effective solutions to overcome and prevent them from adversely affecting the successful implementation of social and economic development plans for 2010 and next years. These include:
- Firstly, although the economic growth has been increasing and overcoming the declining phase, it mainly based on a width development, increase in the volume of resources, chiefly in strengthening investment capital, but not really on increase in labour productivity and efficiency so it was not stable, its quality and efficiency were not high. The ratio of investment to GDP was 41.3% in 2008 and 42.8% in 2009, but the growth of GDP for two years was only 6.18% and 5.32% respectively. That was not corresponding. The competitiveness of the economy and of many economic sectors and products was low.
- Secondly, although the country’s economic structure has initially moved towards a progressive and positive direction, it has not yet escaped from the traditional structure by sectors with a rather high proportion of the material-producing sector generally and the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector particularly. In 2009, the structure of total products of the three sectors: agriculture, forestry and fishery, industry and construction, and service were 20.66%, 40.24% and 39.10% respectively. This was not much different to that in 2008 and recent years. The economic structure by sectors and products was illogical, which did not bring into full play the potential and strong point of each locality, region and the whole country.
- Thirdly, macroeconomic balances were not sound. Although the budget deficit has been controlled, it also reached to 7% of GDP; although the 2009 trade deficit decreased by 32.1% as against 2008, it was still equal 21.6% of the total export turnovers; imported services equaled 18.6% of exported service turnovers and increased by 17% as against 2008. Although inflation in this year was kept in a rational level, but prices have been ever increasing there have been implicit factors that can cause a return of high inflation.
- Fourthly, some pressing social problems have not been quickly solved. The life of the people, chiefly of low-income persons, persons living in remote regions, natural calamity influenced areas and minority people has been very difficult. The unemployed and under-employed rate has been high. According to the Population and Housing Census at period 01/4/2009, the country had 1.3 million persons within the labour age group were unemployed with a rate of 2.9%, higher than the rate of 2.38% in 2008. Although there was a decrease in the rate of poor households, it was still 12.3%. The epidemic diseases were happening complicatedly. Traffic accidents continued increasing. Violation of rule on food hygiene and safety happened in every phase, from producing to preserving, slaughtering and processing animals, poultry and seafood.
Briefly, the economy in 2009 was negatively influenced from two sides. Together with difficulties resulted from the recession of the world economy, which had narrowed considerably export, capital and labour markets, typhoons and floods happened consecutively, epidemic diseases boomed in many places. In this circumstance, the Vietnamese economy still gained a growth of 5.32%, exceeded the set target and ranked in the list of high growth economies in the region and over the world. The industrial production escaped from a standstill in the beginning months of the year and increased by 7.6% for the whole year. Agricultural production had a bumper harvest with a yield of 38.9 million tons of rice for the whole year, increasing 165,700 tons compared to 2008. The macroeconomic balance continued being stable. Although foreign investment decreased, but home investment was clear and the investment capital for development of the whole year gained VND 704.2 trillion, increased by 15.3% compared to 2008. Budget receiving met the yearly estimate and overspending was within the goal set by the National Assembly, i.e. not exceeding 7% of GDP. Inflation was controlled, CPI in December 2009 increased by 6.52% as against December 2008, lower than the goal of 7% set by the NA; the average CPI of 2009 was 6.88%, the lowest rate since last six years. The rate of poor households decreased from 13.4% in 2008 to 12.3%. Culture, education, health and many other social fields also gained surpassing records.
Although many limitations and shortcomings remain, achievements in 2009 have affirmed that the Vietnamese economy has overcome the most difficult stage. Therefore, it is necessary to summarise to draw good lessons for guiding and running social and economic development plans for 2010 and next years.
GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE