ࡱ> q` bjbjqPqP 8::-0 ***8*+|'V-:H-H-H-H-...UUUUUUU$Wh;ZU92.".22UH-H-UbPbPbP2H-H-UbP2UbPbPbPH-- Z*LbPPU0'VbP[O[bP[bPL./bPE0t0]...UUPR...'V2222$>$>$ GII THIU PHNG PHP TNH GI TR TI SN C NH V TH NGHIP VO VIT NAM Nguyn Th Vit Hng Vin Khoa hc Thng k Gi tr ti sn c nh (TSC) l ch tiu kinh t quan trng trong h thng ti khon quc gia, dng cho vic hoch nh cc chnh sch v chng trnh pht trin kinh t ph hp hn vi tim nng ca t nc. ng thi n cn l mt nhn t ch yu  phn tch mi quan h hu c gia tng trng kinh t v cc yu t u vo ca qu trnh sn xut. Song trn thc t, vic tnh ton ch tiu ny gp nhiu kh khn v phc tp, c bit i vi phm vi ton nn kinh t.  c lng gi tr TSC, thng k cc nc s dng cc cch tip cn sau: 1. Phng php Kim k lin tip Phng php Kim k lin tip l phng php dng  tnh gi tr TSC v tiu dng TSC t dy s liu  Tch liy gp TSC . N cho php c tnh gi tr TSC hin ang s dng thuc quyn qun l ca cc n v sn xut. Qu trnh ny c thc hin bng cch c tnh gi tr TSC do tch lu t nhng nm trc nhng vn cn s dng n thi im nghin cu. Khi s dng phng php Kim k lin tip, cn s dng thng tin v s nm hot ng trung bnh ca TSC trong cc thi k u t khc nhau v phi xc nh li gi tr ca TSC c mua sm theo cc gi khc nhau qua cc thi k theo gi ca thi im hin hnh trn c s s dng h thng ch s gi ph hp. Gi tr TSC theo gi hin hnh bao gm ton b gi tr TSC do cc qu trnh u t trong qu kh to ra hin cn s dng, c nh gi li theo gi ca ngi mua ti thi im hin ti. Gi tr TSC cing c tnh theo gi c nh  c th so snh qua cc nm. Phng php Kim k lin tip i hi phi c: ( Ngun s liu v tch liy TSC cng chi tit theo cc l)nh vc kinh t v theo tng loi ti sn cng tt. ( Nhng gi nh v s chp nhn v s liu  mt mc  no  v thi gian s dng ca TSC, v m hnh tnh gi tr TSC; nhng gi nh lin quan n phng php khu hao TSC. tng ch yu ca phng php Kim k lin tip m cc quc gia thnh vin ca T chc Hp tc v Pht trin kinh t (OECD) hin ang s dng l rt n gin: ch cn cng vo tng gi tr TSC ca mt nm no  (c coi l nm bt u ca dy s liu) phn gi tr TSC tng thm trong k v tr i phn gi tr ca nhng TSC  b s dng, h hng v thanh l. Phng php Kim k lin tip, xc nh gi tr TSC bng s lu k gi tr tch liy ti sn c nh cho mt s thi k no  trn c s cn nhc v thi gian s dng v gi tr hao mn TSC. a. Tng gi tr TSC tnh n thi im cui mi nm  EMBED Equation.3  (1) Trong : L l thi gian s dng bnh qun ca TSC Wi = 1 trong sut thi gian s dng ti sn Iit l chi ph u t cho mi thi k Gi nh v quyn s Wi = 1 ch l mt trong s rt nhiu kh nng c th xy ra trong khi nghin cu (xem [7]). b. Gi tr TSC thun ty tnh n thi im cui k Kt (thun ty) =  EMBED Equation.3  (2) Trong : L, Wi, Iit c ngh)a nh  nu trn dit = 1 -  EMBED Equation.3  (i= 0,1,2.....L) Mt s nc thnh vin OECD  thc hin nhng nghin cu su hn v s thay i gi tr ca cc tham s Wi, dit v  iu chnh vic c tnh gi tr TSC vo thi im gia nm ca mi nm. Khi s dng phng php Kim k lin tip cn lu mt s vn  sau: ( Thi gian s dng ca ti sn: l thi gian dng trong sn xut ca mt ti sn, c tnh t khi ti sn bt u a vo s dng cho n khi thanh l hoc b ph hy ti sn . Thi gian s dng TSC l mt tham s quan trng ca phng php Kim k lin tip. Song him c c quan Thng k quc gia no c c ngun s liu ny, phn ln chng c c tnh trn c s s liu ti chnh v k ton. Cc nc thnh vin OECD  s dng ngun thng tin ny t c quan thu, bo co ti chnh ca cc doanh nghip, iu tra, kinh nghim chuyn gia v c tnh ca cc nc khc. Mt s nc s dng hm "t vong  c tnh thi gian s dng TSC. Nhng nhn chung nhng c tnh ny km chnh xc. V vy, gi thuyt v thi gian s dng TSC l vn  kh khn nht khi p dng phng php Kim k lin tip. Mi loi ti sn, thm ch ngay c i vi cng mt loi ti sn, c s dng trong cc mi trng hot ng kinh t khc nhau s c thi gian s dng khc nhau. Mt khc, thi gian s dng ca TSC cn c s thay i do tin b ca khoa hc k thut. ( S dng m hnh "thanh l/khu hao TSC": m hnh "thanh l/khu hao TSC" l m hnh dng  m t gi tr hao mn TSC. C 5 m hnh c ng dng ph bin l: m hnh Chun; Tuyn tnh; Tuyn tnh tr; L gic v Weibul. Song la chn m hnh no cho ph hp vi iu kin, hon cnh ca mi quc gia cing l mt vn  phi cn nhc. ( Phng php khu hao TSC:  n gin ha vn  cn nghin cu, khu hao TSC nh c gi nh l thc hin vi phng php khu hao theo mt t l khng i qua cc nm. Nhn chung, phng php Kim k lin tip khng kt hp c mt cch cht ch nhng gi thuyt lin quan n c im k thut chuyn mn v nhng mi tng quan gia chng. Rt nhiu nh kinh t  khng nh rng: nu c gng  c c s liu chnh xc v thi gian s dng TSC l iu khng tng. Do , khi p dng phng php Kim k lin tip chng ta khng nn qu cu ton v cht lng s liu. C nhiu cch tip cn vi phng php Kim k lin tip khc nhau, trong phn ny ti xin gii thiu phng php tip cn ca Renuka Mahadevan v Noriyoshi Oguchi c cc nc thnh vin ca T chc Nng sut Chu (APO) s dng. 2. Cch tip cn theo Renuka Mahadevan v Noriyoshi Oguchi(1) i vi cc nc khng c sn s liu v gi tr TSC th c th p dng cch tnh nh sau: Bc 1: c tnh gi tr TSC ca mt nm no  (nm t) c chn l nm gc  tnh dy s liu. Cng thc tnh nh sau (xem [2]): Kt = It / (g+d) Trong : Kt l gi tr TSC tnh n thi im cui nm t; It l tch liy gp TSC ca nm t; g l t l tng trung bnh ca I theo gi c nh; d l t l khu hao TSC Bc 2: tnh gi tr TSC ca nhng nm sau nm gc (t) theo cng thc: Kt+i = Kt+i-1 + It+i - d x Kt+i-1 V d, d = 0,03 th: K1991 = K1990 + I 1991  0,03 K1990 K1992 = K1991 + I 1992  0,03 K1991 ... 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