ࡱ> fheq` .bjbjqPqP 8::9 86<x2wwwwwww${yh{x-...xGxwww.Www.wwww& Ks:ww$]x0xw|w4|w|wHE^wL?xx6wRx....ZZ PHNG PHP TNG QUT XY DNG CC CH S TNG HP Nguyn Trng Hu Tin s), Vin Nghin cu Chu u Trong cc nghin cu gn y v cc vn  kinh t - x hi, ngi ta s dng ngy cng nhiu cc ch s tng hp (synthetic index), chng hn nh cc ch s HDI, ch s cnh tranh quc gia, ch s hnh phc quc gia,v.v... s d) nh vy v cc hin tng kinh t x hi v bn cht l cc hin tng phc tp, nhiu chiu,  nh gi v so snh c cc hin tng kinh t x hi theo khng gian v thi gian i hi phi xem xt chng trn nhiu phng din (nhiu chiu) khc nhau. Nhng lm th no  c th nh gi v tng hp chnh xc c cc kha cnh khc nhau ca hin tng nghin cu, l thuyt thng k  cung cp cho chng ta nhiu phng php khc nhau  gii quyt vn  ny. V mt l lun khi xy dng ch s tng hp chng ta phi gii quyt 2 vn  chnh: Mt l la chn c cc ch tiu thnh phn (hay tiu thc nhn t) phn nh c bn cht ca hin tng nghin cu Hai l bng cch no chng ta c th tng hp (hay gp) cc ch tiu thnh phn ny, tc l xc nh c cc trng s ca cc ch tiu thnh phn trong ch tiu tng hp. Cho n nay cc cng trnh nghin cu vn cha gii quyt tho ng hai vn  c bn nu trn, chnh v vy trong bi ny chng ti trnh by mt phng php tng qut v tng i n gin, d vn dng trong thc t  xy dng cc ch s tng hp, bi vit ny cing a ra ni dung ca mt vi ch s tng hp nh: ch s nng lc cnh tranh quc gia, ch s thnh vng quc gia,... I. Phng php xy dng ch s tng hp  phn nh v m t cc hin tng phc tp, ngi ta s dng cc nhm ch tiu khc nhau c trng cho tng kha cnh ca hin tng v trong mi nhm li gm mt s cc ch tiu c th v thng thng tp hp cc s liu u vo c trnh by di dng ma trn khi sau: EMBED Equation.3 Trong : EMBED Equation.3 l gi tr ca ch tiu j ti i tng i trong nhm ch tiu k j = 1,2,..... n - ch s ca cc ch tiu (tiu thc) i = 1,2,.... m - ch s cc i tng k = 1,2,... K - ch s cc nhm ch tiu. Ch l s lng n cc ch tiu l khc nhau trong mi nhm k, nhng  n gin cho trnh by ta khng nh s ring bit. Nhm xy dng ch s tng hp chng ta tin hnh theo cc bc sau: Bc 1: Phn tnh nh tnh tnh cht ca cc ch tiu thnh phn V bn cht cc hin tng phc tp thng l cc phm tr tru tng khng trc tip quan st c v rt kh o lng trc tip chng,  c th nh gi v lng ho c cc hin tng chng ta phi thng qua cc ch tiu thnh phn c th. i vi mt hin tng kinh t x hi phc tp, chng hn nh mc sng, cht lng sng hay kh nng cnh canh quc gia th c rt nhiu cc ch tiu thnh phn c th phn nh mc  ca hin tng , chng hn nh  nh gi mc sng, ngi ta c th dng cc ch tiu thnh phn nh: thu nhp bnh qun u ngi, mc tiu dng cc loi thc phm bnh qun u ngi, s in thoi tnh trn u ngi,v.v... Cc ch tiu ny v bn cht l cc ch tiu phn nh hin tng nghin cu theo gc  tch cc, tc l chng bin ng cng chiu v ng gp tch cc vo s pht trin ca hin tng. Tuy nhin li c cc ch tiu thnh phn khc phn nh tiu cc, tri chiu hin tng nghin cu, v d i vi mc sng cc ch tiu nh s tr em suy dinh dng hay s ngi v gia c,v.v... Nh vy phn tch nh tnh cho php chng ta phn cc ch tiu thnh phn vo hai nhm: cc ch tiu khuyn khch (k hiu l S) v cc ch tiu khng khuyn khch (k hiu l D), v mt nguyn tc chng ta lun c th bin cc ch tiu D thnh ch tiu S v ngc li. Do  trong phn nghin cu di y chng ta s gi thit cc ch tiu u l ch tiu khuyn khch. Bc 2: La chn cc ch tiu thnh phn ch yu phn nh hin tng nghin cu  phn nh hin tng nghin cu c th s dng rt nhiu ch tiu thnh phn. Nu s dng tt c cc ch tiu ny th chng ta s gp phi vn  nhiu thng tin, hay long thng tin, do c nn loi tr nhng ch tiu cha ng lng thng tin khng ng k v hin tng. Ni cch khc chng ta nn chn ra mt s lng va  cc ch tiu thnh phn, iu ny cn lm gim chi ph tnh ton trong x l s liu. T tp hp ban u cc ch tiu, chng ta rt li mt nhm nh hn gi l cc ch tiu th cp. C rt nhiu phng php khc nhau  la chn cc ch tiu mong mun. Mt trong s cc phng php  l s dng phn tch tng quan. Ti bc ny dng phn tch tng quan  la chn cc ch tiu th cp, khi  ta tnh cc h s tng quan cp  thu c ma trn cc h s tng quan sau y: EMBED Equation.3 Trong : rjl l h s tng quan gia ch tiu j v ch tiu l Trn c s ma trn cc h s tng quan chng ta chn cc ch tiu th cp nh sau: - Nu h s tng quan cp ca ch tiu th j0 v th l0 m tho mn iu kin: EMBED Equation.3th ta chn j0 v loi b l0 s d) nh vy l  khc phc, loi b hin tng trng lp thng tin (v c hai ch tiu j0, l0 u cha ng thng tin nh nhau v hin tng nghin cu). - i vi cc ch tiu cn li t ma trn cc h s tng quan chng ta cing tin hnh tng t. Kt thc giai on ny chng ta thu c mt tp hp cc ch tiu thnh phn th cp vi s lng nh hn lc ban u. Khi  chng ta thu c ma trn cc s liu phn tch sau: EMBED Equation.3 (1) Vi p < n Bc 3: phn tch mc  quan trng ca tng ch tiu thnh phn (hay mc  thng tin) R rng mi ch tiu thnh phn cha ng thng tin v hin tng nghin cu vi cc mc  khc nhau, c ch tiu phn nh c nhiu, c ch tiu phn nh c t. Tc l vai tr v tm quan trng ca cc ch tiu i vi hin tng nghin cu l khc nhau.  nh gi vn  ny chng ta phn tch h s bin thin ca tng ch tiu thnh phn  c la chn. Nu mt ch tiu thnh phn no  c h s bin thin nh tc l mc ng u ca ch tiu ny ti tng i tng l kh cao, th ch tiu  v bn cht l ch tiu cha ng t thng tin v hin tng nghin cu hay ni cch khc i vi mt ch tiu thnh phn no  m cng t i tng t c mc  cao ca n th ch tiu  cng c gi tr, v d nh i vi mc sng th ch tiu s lng t tnh trn 1000 dn chng hn l ch tiu phn nh r nt mc sng cao v ch tiu ny rt kh t c ng u i vi cc i tng nghin cu, hn na ch tiu ny r rng th hin mc sng cao hn so vi ch tiu nh s lng xe p hay v tuyn tnh trn 1000 dn. Nh vy c th kt lun l: ch tiu cng quan trng th cng t i tng t c gi tr (mc ) cao ca n.  n gin ti bc ny chng ta s loi b bt cc ch tiu m h s bin thin nh (tc l lng thng tin v hin tng nghin cu thp).  xc nh tm quan trng ca ch tiu cing c th s dng h s bt i xng: nu ch tiu c h s bt i xng dng cng ln (lch phi nhiu) th ch tiu  cng quan trng v ngc li. Bc 4; Chun ho cc ch tiu thnh phn  c chn lc C nhiu phng php chun ho nhng  y chng ta p dng phng php chun ho sau y:  EMBED Equation.3 ; j (S (2)  EMBED Equation.3 ; j (D (3) Bc 5: tnh trng s ca cc ch tiu thnh phn trong tng nhm ch tiu Nh trn  phn tch, ch tiu m &*.06<@DJLPRV\`dfӿ}iYh`|@B*OJQJ^Jph'hKh75B*OJQJ\^JphhKh7OJQJ^JhKhKOJQJ^J'hKh75B*OJQJ\^Jph'h]h]5B*OJQJ\^Jph'hKhK5B*OJQJ\^JphhKh4j5OJQJ\^Jh]h]5OJQJ\^Jh]5OJQJ\^J f4vaLL$dx7$8$H$`a$gd4j$dx7$8$H$`a$gd7gkd$$Ifl8"y t0644 la$x$7$8$H$Ifa$gd4j$x7$8$H$a$gd4j,4 6 D F   H J ~ 8 : R T h j | ~ HJtv8:HJ24&(0<ȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷ%hKh4j@B*OJQJ^Jph%hKhK@B*OJQJ^Jph!hKh4jB*OJQJ^Jph!hKhKB*OJQJ^Jph%hKh4j@B*OJQJ^Jph%hKhK@B*OJQJ^Jph24<R(%X&h+,,X-..$x7$8$H$`a$gd4j$x7$8$H$a$gd4j$dx7$8$H$a$gd4j$dx7$8$H$`a$gd4j<&ƵƵsƵZBƵƵƵ.j,hKh4jB*EHOJQJU^Jph0j'H hKh4jB*OJQJUV^Jph.j\hKh4jB*EHOJQJU^Jph'j!(H hKh4jOJQJUV^J*jhKh4jB*OJQJU^Jph!hKh4jB*OJQJ^Jph!hKhKB*OJQJ^Jph'hKh4j5B*OJQJ\^Jph'hKhK5B*OJQJ\^Jph&Pp"$$(46$&*,rt~ !! 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T  ta xc nh  nhy cm ca ch tiu bng tham s sau y:  EMBED Equation.3  (4) Trong : u - l s lng cc i tng tho mn iu kin:  EMBED Equation.3  (5) Vi ( ( [1,0] l mt tham s cho trc  Chun ho tham s  EMBED Equation.3  ta c th vit n di dng:  EMBED Equation.3  (6) D thy rng 0 (  EMBED Equation.3 ( 1 v gi tr ca tham s ny ln nu c t i tng tho mn iu kin (5) v ngc li. Nh vy gi tr ca tham s ny cng gn 0 th ch tiu j cng t c gi tr thng tin v hin tng nghin cu, cn nu gi tr ca tham s ny cng gn 1 th ch tiu j cng nhiu gi tr thng tin. Trn c s cc gi tr ca  EMBED Equation.3 tnh c cho tng ch tiu trong nhm k, ta s gn cho mi ch tiu ny mt trng s tng ng vi tm quan trng ca n. Nhm mc ch ny chng ta xp xp cc gi tr  EMBED Equation.3 theo th t gim dn. C th l nu  EMBED Equation.3  ta cho ( =1  EMBED Equation.3 ta cho ( =2 ....................  EMBED Equation.3  ta cho ( =n Khi  h thng trng s c tnh theo cng thc sau y:  EMBED Equation.3  (7) Cng thc ny tho mn cc iu kin: 1. 0 ( (( ( 1 2.  EMBED Equation.3  Bc 6: Gp theo tng nhm cc ch tiu Ch s tng hp thnh phn (hay ch s tng hp nhm) i vi cc nhm ch tiu s c tnh theo cng thc sau:  EMBED Equation.3  (8) Trong  ( = 1, 2, ........n i = 1, 2, ........m v yi( c xc nh theo cc cng thc (2), (3) vi ch s ( l phn chiu ch s j. Bc 7: Gp chung ton b cc nhm ch tiu i vi mi nhm ch tiu c th chng ta s tnh h s nhy cm theo cng thc sau:  EMBED Equation.3  (9) k = 1, 2, ..................K Trong : u - l s lng cc i tng tho mn iu kin:  EMBED Equation.3  Vi ( ( [0,1] l mt s cho trc Ta lp li qu trnh nh trong bc 5, cho mi nhm k mt trng s nht nh tng ng vi tm quan trng ca n. Cng thc tnh trng s tng t nh (7) nhng vi ( = 1,2,......K, bng s lng cc nhm ch tiu nghin cu. Cui cng ta tnh ch s tng hp chung theo cng thc sau:  EMBED Equation.3  Trong : (( tnh theo cng thc (7)  EMBED Equation.3  tnh theo cng thc (8) D dng nhn thy S ( [0,1], gi tr ca ch s tng hp chung cng gn 1 th i tng nghin cu th i cng t c mc  cao xt theo ch tiu tng hp nghin cu v ngc li. Trn c s ch s tng hp tnh c cho mi i tng, chng ta c th tin hnh xp hng ton b tng th nghin cu (nh xp hng cc tnh, cc a phng, cc vng, hoc cc quc gia). Trn y ch l mt trong nhiu phng php xy dng ch s tng hp, ngoi ra cn c cc phng php khc nh phng php phn tch nhn t, phng php phn tch thnh phn chnh, phng php phn tch tng tc. II. Mt s ch s tng hp quan trng Ngoi ch s quen thuc v c p dng rng ri ti cc nc nh ch s pht trin con ngi HDI, gn y ngi ta quan tm n vic xy dng nhiu ch s tng hp khc c ngh)a trong vic hoch nh chin lc pht trin. Mt s t chc quc t cn a ra cc ch s tng hp nhm so snh quc t nh ch s t do kinh t (IEF), ch s thnh vng quc gia (WNI), ch s nng lc cnh tranh quc gia,v.v... Di y chng ti xin gii thiu mt vi ch s . 1. Ch s nng lc cnh tranh quc gia Xp hng cc quc gia theo ch s nng lc cnh tranh quc gia do Vin quc t v pht trin qun l IMD ti Thy s) tin hnh, ch s ny c xy dng trn c s 321 ch tiu thnh phn v thc hin ti 59 nc v khu vc trn th gii. Cc ch tiu thnh phn c chia thnh bn nhm: nhm th nht bao gm cc ch tiu phn nh tnh trng kinh t v) m nh gi tr, tc  tng GDP, cn cn thng mi, u t quc t, lao ng, lm pht; nhm th hai gm cc ch tiu phn nh tnh hnh ti chnh cng; nhm th ba phn nh hiu qu khu vc kinh doanh; nhm th t l cc ch tiu phn nh kt cu h tng. Ch s ny cing c T chc din n kinh t th gii tnh trn c s cc nhm ch tiu khc so vi ch s ca IMD tnh. Xp hng v kh nng cnh tranh quc gia ca Vit nam nm 2005 ng  v tr 81/117 tt 4 bc so vi nm 2004. 2. Ch s thnh vng quc gia (WNI) Do nhm cc chuyn gia kinh t ca World Paper v Vin nghin cu cc vn  tin t ca M tnh v cng b hng nm nhm o lng s thnh vng ca cc quc gia. WNI c tnh ton trn c s ba nhm ch tiu. Nhm th nht v l)nh vc kinh t bao gm: tc  tng GDP, GNI bnh qun u ngi theo USD tnh theo sc mua tng ng, t l lm pht, tng vn c nh trong nc, t l tit kim, thm ht ngn sch so vi GDP, n nc ngoi so vi GDP, kim ngch xut khu so vi GDP,v.v... Nhm th hai v x hi bao gm phn phi thu nhp, bnh ng nam n v thu nhp v gio dc, t l tht nghip, s lng v phng tin giao thng, ch s v quyn li chnh tr, phc li y t so vi chi tiu, lng cung cp calo/ngy,v.v.. Nhm th ba v trao i thng tin nh t l bit ch, s ngi c bo trn 1000 dn, t l sinh vin tt nghip, s lng my tnh c nhn trn 1000 ngi, in thoi trn 1000 dn,v.v... Tnh chung c ba nhm ch tiu trn Vit nam t 1.227 im bng 51,1% tng s im cao nht ca nc ang pht trin, ng th 56/170 nc ang pht trin c s liu so snh. ng u l cc nc nh Slvenia, Ixraen, Hn quc, Cng ho Sc, i loan. Xp cui l Tandania, Dimbabu, Knia. 3. Ch s t do kinh t (IEF) Ch s ny do Qu h tr di sn v Tp ch ph Un M tnh ton v cng b t nm 1995 n nay. Nm 2005 ch s ny c tnh cho 161 nc trn th gii bao gm 50 ch tiu c lp chia thnh mi nhm cc ch tiu phn nh cc kha cnh sau; - Chnh sch thng mi; - Chnh sch thu ca chnh ph; - S can thip ca nh nc vo kinh t; - Chnh sch tin t; - Cc lung vn ng ca vn v u t nc ngoi; - Ngn hng v ti chnh; - Tin lng v gi c; - Quyn s hu; - Quy ch; - Cc hot ng ca th trng phi chnh thc. Cc nc c xem l c mc  t do kinh t cao l Hng cng, Singapore, Lucxambua, Estonia, Airlen, New Zealand, M, an mch. Vit nam xp th 137/161 nc v c xem l nc c mc  t do kinh t thp, thm ch di c Etiopia, Pakistan. 4. Ch s vn minh c tnh trn c s gp ba ch s tng hp khc l: Ch s t do kinh t (IEF), ch s pht trin nhn lc HDI v ch s nhn thc v tham nhing. 5. Ch s cht lng sng Gm cc nhm ch tiu phn nh mc sng, trnh  pht trin x hi, cht lng mi trng sng. 6. Ch s tng hnh phc quc gia (Gross National Happiness - GNH) Ngoi cc nhm ch tiu phn nh mc sng, cht lng sng ngi ta cn a thm cc ch tiu phn nh mc  hnh phc, hi lng ca ngi dn. 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