ࡱ> q` tbjbjqPqP 8::g?DVVVV8L LL8bbbbxnnn$h9LL"VVbxVbVRbV"bV q\.0L:8n>,$nnnIjnnnL b$bVVVVVV THAY I CHT LNG SN PHM TRONG NH GI TNG TRNG CA THNG K TI KHON QUC GIA Nguyn Bch Lm Thc s), Vin Khoa hc Thng k  Ch tiu gi tr sn xut v tng sn phm trong nc (GDP) lun c tnh theo hai loi gi: gi thc t v gi so snh. Gi thc t l gi ca sn phm hng ha v dch v hnh thnh ngay trong qu trnh giao dch ti mt thi k nht nh, phn nh gi tr trn th trng ca sn phm hng ho, dch v chu chuyn t qu trnh sn xut kinh doanh, lu thng phn phi ti s dng cui cng ng thi vi s vn ng tin t ti chnh, thanh ton. Gi so snh l gi thc t ca sn phm hng ha v dch v ca mt nm no  c chn lm gc so snh, dng  loi tr nh hng ca yu t gi trong mi nm, nhm nghin cu s thay i v khi lng sn phm hng ha v dch v(1). Gi tr sn xut v GDP phn nh gi tr hng ha v dch v c to ra trong mt thi k nht nh ca nn kinh t. Khi nghin cu bin ng ca hai ch tiu ny theo thi gian, cc nh kinh t lun quan tm ti ba yu t ng hnh v cu thnh nn chng,  l: gi c, khi lng v cht lng sn phm. Trong  gi c ca hng ha v dch v c xc nh theo quy lut Cung-Cu ca th trng; khi lng sn phm do cc nh sn xut v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng quyt nh; v cht lng ca hng ha c xc nh bi bn nhm yu t sau: (i) c trng vt cht do tnh cht l, ha to nn; (ii) a im cung cp hng ha; (iii) Thi gian cung cp hng ha; v (iv) iu kin hay mi trng bn hng ha. Ngi s dng d dng nhn bit v tha nhn yu t th nht s gy nn s khc bit v cht lng hng ha do nguyn vt liu dng vo sn xut  to ra sn phm c cht lng khc nhau. a im cung cp khc nhau to ra cht lng hng ha khc nhau c hiu theo ngh)a mc  tha mn trong tiu dng ca mt loi hng ha  a im ny s khc vi  a im khc mc d c trng vt cht ca chng hon ton ging nhau. Hn na vn chuyn hng ha ti ni c nhu cu tiu th cao hn l mt qu trnh sn xut, lm tng gi tr hng ha v thay i cht lng ca chng. Ging nh yu t th hai, thi gian cung cp khc nhau trong ngy hay trong nm cing l yu t lm cho cht lng hng ha khc nhau. Chng hn cng l rau xanh thu hoch ngoi ng vo lc na m v cung cp cho ngi tiu dng vo bui sng s c cht lng khc vi cung cp vo bui chiu v do vy gi c ca chng cing khc nhau. in cung cp cho sn xut v tiu dng lc cao im trong ngy c cht lng khc vi in cung cp vo lc na m v  tha dng trong gi cao im ln hn bt k thi im no khc v chi ph  sn xut thm mt Kilowat in trong gi cao im cing ln hn. Chnh v vy Cng ty in lc thng khuyn khch v bn in vi gi thp hn cho cc n v tiu thu in ngoi gi cao im. Tng t nh vy i vi hoa qu v rau mu c gi cao hn nu cung cp vo thi im tri v trong nm v chi ph  c sn phm cao hn so vi chnh v. Khi bin son ch s gi, cc nh thng k gi phi thu thp thng tin y  c v gi v khi lng sn phm  bn theo tng loi a im bn, ng thi phi x l vn  cht lng sn phm. Chng hn tnh ch s gi ca mt hng tht heo vi gi s ngi tiu dng trong thng th nht mua 100 kg ti quy  ch vi gi 30 nghn ng/kg v mua 80 kg trong siu th vi gi 32 nghn ng/kg. Sang thng th hai, do ang c dch bnh nn ngi tiu dng ch mua 80 kg ti quy  ch vn vi gi 30 nghn ng/kg v mua 100 kg ti siu th vn vi gi 32 nghn ng/kg. R rng nu khng coi tht  ch v  siu th l hai hng ha c cht lng sn phm khc nhau v khng thu thp thng tin v khi lng sn phm bn ra  tng loi ch, khi  ch s gi mt hng tht heo l khng i (v gi bn khng thay i). Tuy vy gi bnh qun theo quyn s ca hai im bn tht  tng t 30,89 nghn ng/kg trong thng th nht n 31,11 nghn ng/kg trong thng th hai. Thc cht gi bnh qun ca thng th hai tng so vi thng th nht khng phi do yu t gi quyt nh m do yu t cht lng sn phm quyt nh. Gi tr ca hng ha c th hin qua gi c ca chng trn th trng. Trong th trng cnh tranh hon ho, cc nh kinh t a ra gi thit gi c ca hng ha s phn nh ng s thch ca ngi tiu dng v gi bn sn phm ca nh sn xut. Gi c khc nhau gia hai loi hng ha ti cng mt thi im biu th cht lng hng ha khc nhau. Thng k ti khon quc gia cing p dng gi thit ny mc d th trng cnh tranh hon ho ch c trn l thuyt m khng tn ti trong thc t v c nhiu nguyn nhn gy nn s khc bit v gi ca hng ha v dch v. Chng hn ngi tiu dng khng c y  thng tin v gi c v cht lng ca hng ha nn h phi tr gi cao hn so vi gi c thc ca n; hoc phn bit i x v gi do Chnh ph v cc nh lp chnh sch t ra. Khc bit v gi ca hng ha do nhng nguyn nhn nu trn khng th coi l do cht lng hng ha khc nhau to nn. C nhng ngnh kinh t to ra sn phm mi vi cht lng cao hn c biu th qua tnh nng v cng sut tt hn nhng li c gi bn thp hn sn phm ci ang xut hin trn th trng (v d nh my tnh in t). Trong trng hp ny, gi thit gi ca sn phm cao hn ng vi cht lng sn phm tt hn khng cn ng.  nh gi tng trng ca ch tiu gi tr sn xut v GDP, thng k ti khon quc gia phi loi tr yu t bin ng v gi trong hai ch tiu ny, ngh)a l ch nghin cu thay i v khi lng. Cht lng sn phm tng s nng cao tnh cnh tranh v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng v nh mt kt qu tt yu s lm tng khi lng sn phm sn xut ra. V vy thng k ti khon quc gia quy nh thay i cht lng sn phm l mt yu t ca thay i khi lng khi nghin cu tng trng. Quy nh ny rt quan trng v n nh hng ti phng php bin son ch s gi sn xut (PPI) v ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)  hai loi ch s gi c dng ph bin khi p dng phng php gim pht ca ti khon quc gia  tnh ch tiu gi tr sn xut v GDP theo gi so snh. Vi quy nh ny khi thu thp thng tin v bin son PPI v CPI, thng k gi phi loi tr yu t thay i cht lng sn phm. Trong trng hp ngc li ch s gi s c tnh cao hn so vi thc t v chng bao gm c yu t tng cht lng sn phm hng ha v dn ti nh gi thp tc  tng trng ca ch tiu gi tr sn xut v tng sn phm trong nc. Phng php gim pht vi ch s gi  loi tr yu t thay i cht lng sn phm cho php biu th chnh xc thay i v khi lng ca mt ch tiu theo gi so snh. Ch s gi phn nh thay i chi ph theo thi gian  mua mt r hng ha xc nh v khng chu nh hng v thay i cht lng, thay i s lng hng ha trong r hng. Ni cch khc, loi hng ho trong r dng  thu thp gi phi c cht lng ging nhau gia hai k so snh. Cng thc Laspeyres vi quyn s nm gc c nh  tnh ch s gi vi mc ch ch phn nh thay i thun ty v gi gia hai k so snh. Trong thc t thu thp thng tin  bin son ch s gi, cc nh Thng k thng gp cc trng hp sau: i. Do tin b ca khoa hc cng ngh v th hiu ca ngi tiu dng, cc nh sn xut  thay i mu m v gii thiu nhng mu sn phm mi ng thi theo thi gian cc mu sn phm ci khng cn xut hin trn th trng. iu ny  gy kh khn trong vic thu thp thng tin  tnh ch s gi theo mt r hng ha c nh. Cc nh Thng k phi chn sn phm mi thay th cho sn phm ci v phi iu chnh cht lng ca sn phm mi  m bo ch s gi phn nh chnh xc bin ng v gi ca sn phm gia hai thi k. ii. Nhiu loi sn phm c cht lng khc nhau do c thm mt vi chc nng cn mu m ca chng hon ton ging nhau. C nhng loi sn phm c to ra trong nn kinh t mang tnh n chic, mi quy trnh sn xut ch to ra mt sn phm v v th khng c gi thng nht gia cc thi k  tnh ch s. iii. i vi sn phm phi th trng nh: sn phm t sn xut  tiu dng v tch liy; dch v qun l nh nc,  &*,46FLTVZ\fntx~   j l ؽ؟}}}}} h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hCJOJQJ^JaJh]hEOJQJ^Jh]h]OJQJ^Jh]h]5OJQJ^Jh]hE5OJQJ^Jhtht5OJQJ^Jht5OJQJ^J1r   z}ll[[[$dx`a$gdE$dx`a$gdEgkd$$Ifl" t0644 la,$d $Ifa$gdE $d a$gdE ΒVr n p pvxzz|rt>@,8n|&( 2"4"""""####X%Z%%%%%&&&&&&&޹$h]hECJOJQJ^J_H aJ#h]hECJH*OJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJI&&^(`(:)<)--000121^1`12222<3>33405h5666688; ;d=f===??(@*@@@AADD2F4FGGjGlGGGGGHT$T0TFUHUUUDV﹦ޤU$h]hE@CJOJQJ^JaJ$h]h]@CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h]6CJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ@`(2 ;?@DGHUJVPZ\]6]X]$dx$Ifa$gd]$dx`a$gdE$dx`a$gdE$dx`a$gdEan ninh quc phng, v.v, c quan thng k khng th thu thp gi ca chng trn th trng. Khi  chi ph sn xut ca chng c dng  tnh ton ch s gi.  gii quyt vn  thay i cht lng hng ha khi bin son PPI v CPI, thng k gi thng s dng mt s phng php sau: " Phng php ni gi p dng  iu chnh cht lng sn phm trong trng hp  mt hay mt vi thi k c sn phm mi B v sn phm ci A trong nhm cng xut hin trn th trng vi gi khc nhau v sau  ch cn sn phm mi tn ti trn th trng. Cc nh kinh t gi thit gi ca sn phm A v B khc nhau trong thi k c hai cng xut hin biu th khc nhau v cht lng v t l gi ca chng trong thi k ny c dng lm h s iu chnh thay i cht lng sn phm khi bin son ch s gi. C th phng php iu chnh nh sau: Gi s sn phm ci xut hin trn th trng t k gc 0 n thi k t vi gi ca sn phm trong hai thi k ln lt l pco v pct. Trong thi k t sn phm mi xut hin vi gi l pmt v n thi k n ch cn sn phm mi vi gi pmn. Gi ca hai sn phm trong tng thi k a ra trong bng. Thi k xut hinGi sn phm ciGi sn phm miopco = 10tpct = 15pmt = 17npmn = 20T l pct / pmt biu th khc nhau v cht lng ca sn phm ci v sn phm mi trong cng thi k t qua gi c, nhn gi tr l 0,88. Trong k n khng cn xut hin sn phm ci m ch c gi ca sn phm mi pmn, khi  tch s pmn x (pct / pmt) biu th gi ca sn phm pmn ca thi k n  iu chnh thay i cht lng sn phm. Ch s gi ca sn phm pmn ca k n so vi k gc 0  iu chnh thay i cht lng sn phm c tnh qua cng thc sau: I Pn, o = pmn x (pct / pmt) / pco = 20 x 0,88 / 10 = 1,66 Nu khng iu chnh thay i cht lng sn phm, ch s gi c tnh nh sau: Ikc Pn, o = pmn / pco = 20 / 10 = 2,0 Nu dng ch s gi ny  gim pht s nh gi thp thay i khi lng ca ch tiu cn tnh ton v ch s gi cao hn thc t. Phng php ni gi cho kt qu tt khi th trng ca sn phm A v B cnh tranh hon ho. Trong trng hp sn phm mi thng xuyn c a ra th trng v gi c ca chng thay i nhanh, khi  phng php ni gi s cho kt qu khng tt. " Phng php gi la chn  cp ti trng hp gi ca hai sn phm A v B khc nhau do sn phm B c thm chc nng so vi sn phm A. Chng hn nh sn phm A l my tnh xch tay khng c  )a CD-ROM, sn phm B ging sn phm A ch khc l c thm  )a CD-ROM. Trong trng hp ny gi ca sn phm B cao hn gi ca sn phm A ng bng gi ca  )a CD-ROOM. Khi   loi tr s khc bit v cht lng sn phm trong tnh ton ch s gi, gi ca sn phm B phi tr i gi ca  )a CD-ROM. Tuy vy trong thc t khng phi lc no gi ca sn phm c thm chc nng cing bng ng gi ca sn phm cha c chc nng  cng thm gi ca thit b c chc nng . Phng php gi la chn thng c p dng khi khc bit v cht lng sn phm khc nhau do chng c chc nng khc nhau, ng thi khc bit gi ca chng bng ng gi ca cc b phn la chn thm v ch p dng iu chnh cht lng trong ch s gi hng ha bn cho ngi tiu dng (CPI). " Phng php iu chnh Hedonic nh gi s khc bit v gi c ca hng ha do khc nhau v cht lng th hin qua cc c trng ca hng ha. Cc nh thng k thu thp thng tin v gi ca sn phm trn th trng v nhng thng tin phn nh c trng khc nhau ca cc loi hng ha. H s thu c t php hi quy phn nh c trng tng qut ca hng ha v biu th s khc bit v gi gia cc loi hng ha. Dng h s hi quy  tnh gi trong mt s thi k ca hng ha khi chng cha c trn th trng. Cc nh thng k thng thc hin php hi quy cho k gc v dng h s hi quy cho mt s k. Phng php Hedonic thng s dng trong trng hp sn phm thay i nhanh. Tuy vy phng php ny i hi phi xc nh v nh lng c cc c trng ca hng ha. " Phng php nh gi theo sn phm mu c a ra da trn thc t xut hin ca cc sn phm n chic - Mi quy trnh sn xut ch to ra mt sn phm theo n t hng, vi cc c trng k thut ca sn phm do bn A ca hp ng t ra. C th coi sn phm n chic l loi sn phm mi, sn xut ra  mt k v khng c sn phm tng t xut hin  k hch ton tip theo. V vy khng th thu thp gi ca cng mt sn phm  hai k khc nhau  so snh v do vy khng th tnh ch s gi cho loi sn phm n chic. Sn phm n chic c cu trc a dng, phc tp,  to ra thnh phm thng c s kt hp gia nhiu n v sn xut, mi n v chu trch nhim sn xut ra mt hay mt vi b phn cu thnh ca sn phm. Vi c trng ca quy trnh sn xut ca sn phm n chic, cc nh thng k  a ra phng php xc nh gi theo sn phm mu dng  tnh chuyn gi tr sn xut ca nhm sn phm n chic t gi thc t v gi so snh. Ni dung tm tt ca phng php nh gi theo sn phm mu nh sau: Da vo sn phm  c, tch  sn phm mu theo cc b phn cu thnh. Mi b phn cu thnh u c gi ca k hch ton trc, cc nh Thng k kt hp vi n v sn xut xc nh li gi ca cc b phn cu thnh  theo k hch ton hin ti. T  c th tnh c ch s gi ca tng b phn cu thnh ca sn phm n chic.  p dng phng php xc nh gi theo m hnh sn phm, cn phi tun th cc yu cu sau: - Cp nht thng xuyn sn phm mu  s dng  xc nh gi cc b phn cu thnh, m bo sn phm khng b li thi; - Phi chn sn phm mu c tnh i din, s dng ti nhiu ni; - Gi thc t trn th trng p dng cho ton b sn phm v cc b phn cu thnh. y l gi c bn ca sn phm, bao gm c li nhun ca nh sn xut v tr i chit khu cho khch hng. " Phng php chi ph sn xut: nhiu khi khng c gi ring bit cho tng b phn c lp ca sn phm, khi  cc nh Thng k gi phi hi n v sn xut v chi ph  to ra cc b phn c lp. Vi mc ch loi tr khc bit cht lng gia hai sn phm trong tnh ton ch s gi, bn cnh thng tin v gi ca tng b phn cc nh thng k cn thu thp thng tin v s khc bit trong chi ph sn xut ca hai sn phm. Theo phng php ny, thng tin v chi ph dng thay cho thng tin v gi c v vy phng php  khng tnh n s thch ca ngi tiu dng. Hin nay trong bin son ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng, V Thng k Thng mi, dch v v gi c ca Tng cc Thng k  x l vn  thay i cht lng sn phm vi phng php ni gi l ch yu, cc phng php khc vn cha p dng. Mi phng php thng c p dng v c hiu qu cho mt s nhm hng ha no . Hy vng trong thi gian ti vn  thay i cht lng sn phm trong nh gi tng trng ca thng k ti khon quc gia s c quan tm hn. (1) Mt s thut ng thng k thng dng, trang 47-48, v t y tr i thut ng hng ha c hiu l c hng ha v dch v Ti liu tham kho 1. System of National Accounts 1993; 2. Statistics New Zealand. Producers Price Index, Concepts, Sources and methods, December 1999; 3. Sonia Collins, Statistics New Zealand, Quality adjustment in the Producers price Index in New Zealand 4. Tng cc Thng k, Mt s thut ng thng k thng dng, H Ni  2004; 5. Tng cc Thng k, Phng n iu tra v bo co thng k gi tiu dng, theo quyt nh s 412/2003/Q - TCTK ngy 29 thng 7 nm 2003 ca Tng cc trng Tng cc Thng k; 6. Tng cc Thng k, Phng n iu tra v bo co thng k gi bn sn phm ca ngi sn xut hng nng, lm, thy sn, km theo quyt nh s 650/2004/Q - TCTK ngy 5 thng 9 nm 2004 ca Tng cc trng Tng cc Thng k; 7. Tng cc Thng k, Phng n iu tra v bo co thng k gi bn sn phm ca ngi sn xut hng cng nghip, km theo quyt nh s 650/2004/Q - TCTK ngy 5 thng 9 nm 2004 ca Tng cc trng Tng cc Thng k;      Thng tin Khoa hc Thng k  PAGE 6 DVNVvVNZPZZZ[[[[[[\\\t\v\x\\\]]4]6]V]`]b]d]|]~]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]^^^^l_n_p_r______________`̺̺̺̺ﺨﺨﺨﺨ̺ﺨ̺̺ﺨﺨ̺#h]hECJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h]hECJH*OJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h]5CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJBX]Z]^]r]t]m\KK$dx$Ifa$gd]$dx$Ifa$gd]kd\$$IfTlFpl p t06    44 laTt]v]z]]]m\KK$dx$Ifa$gd]$dx$Ifa$gd]kd$$IfTlFpl p t06    44 laT]]]]]m\KK$dx$Ifa$gd]$dx$Ifa$gd]kd^$$IfTlFpl p t06    44 laT]]baaabbm\KKKK$dx`a$gdE$dx`a$gdEkd$$IfTlFpl p t06    44 laT```^abadafara~aaaaaaaaaaaaaTbVbbbbbbbbbbbbbbccxezeeeʹ۹۹۹۹۹ʹʹ۹۹۹mʹʹ$h]hE@CJOJQJ^JaJ$h]h]@CJOJQJ^JaJ&h]h]5CJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h]hE5CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]hECJH*OJQJ^JaJ#h]hECJH*OJQJ^JaJ)bcei8kmqsw8{RPv‹TN$dx`a$gd $dxa$gd$dx`a$gdE$dx`a$gdEeffzgggghhliniii6k8k.l0l|mmmmqqsssttuuuuvwwx x2x4xxxyy6{8{{{{{||~~ ȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȥȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷȷ#h]hE6CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h]6CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ&h]hE56CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h]5CJOJQJ^JaJ:`bxzNPRPRDF68PRXNPt޺縉uc#h]h]>*CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h5CJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hCJOJQJ^JaJ h]hCJOJQJ^JaJ#h]hE5CJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h]5CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hECJOJQJ^JaJ h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ!tvT|~ȍʍ~ŽJNvx"$,.@Bx>@0<BDʒ̒ΒВԒ֒ڒܒܺܜh]56CJaJhbjhbUh]hOJQJ^J h]h@CJOJQJ^J h]h]@CJOJQJ^J h]h]CJOJQJ^JaJ h]hCJOJQJ^JaJ#h]h>*CJOJQJ^JaJ4NΒҒԒؒڒޒNPRTVlnpr$a$gd]-DM ^gdE$a$$-DM a$gd]`gd]$dx`a$gdLNPRTVXdfhjlrtѼtaREh]hOJQJ^JhfWh]5B*CJph%h]0J5B*CJmHnHphu hfWh]0J5B*CJph)jhfWh]0J5B*CJUphhbh]6CJaJh] h:h]6B*CJaJph)h:h]0JB*CJOJQJaJph!h:h]0JB*CJaJphh]0JCJaJ%jh]5CJUaJmHnHurt`gd]6&P 1h:p1. 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