ࡱ> q` bjbjqPqP 4::C"   8$Wfeeeeeee$gh]jei4!4!4!efbbb4!>eb4!ebbb ꈙ_Dbc|'f0Wfbj bpjbjb4S:beezbXWf4!4!4!4! LM PHT C BN T L THUYT N THC TIN  VIT NAM Nguyn Th Thu(*) T nm 2004 t l lm pht ca Vit Nam lin tc tng cao (9,5% nm 2004 v 8,4% nm 2005), ngi ta bt u ni nhiu n khi nim Lm pht c bn (hay cn gi l Lm pht thc cht)(1). Thm ch c nhng ngi cn tnh nhanh bng cch loi tr ngay nhm Lng thc thc phm ra khi r hng ho CPI v cng b ch s ny l ch s Lm pht c bn ca Vit Nam. Vy Lm pht c bn l g? Ti sao phi tnh ton Lm pht c bn? Lm pht c bn ca cc quc gia trn th gii ra sao? v cui cng l Vit Nam bt u nghin cu Lm pht c bn t bao gi? 1. Lm pht c bn l g? Lm pht c bn (Core Inflation): l t l lm pht th hin s thay i mc gi mang tnh cht lu di m loi b nhng thay i mang tnh tm thi nn lm pht c bn chnh l lm pht xut pht t nguyn nhn tin t (hay chnh lm pht theo quan nim ca Friedman). Do  khng phi l CPI m Lm pht c bn l mt cng c c lc gip Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) c con mt nh gi ng n v lm pht, qua  mi c th ch dn cho mc tiu chnh sch tin t trong tng lai v mt khi gi c n nh s l tin  cho cc ch tiu kinh t v) m khc n nh v pht trin. Tuy nhin, cing cn phi lu rng cc tc ng ca chnh sch tin t sau mt  tr thi gian mi c hiu lc, do  s l qu mun nu cc NHTW i cho n khi t l Lm pht c bn bt u tng th mi bt u c gng lm gim sc p lm pht. Ty vo cc phng php o lng khc nhau, cc nc cng nghip tin tin c phn bit r rng gia t l lm pht c cng b rng ri theo thng l (thng l CPI, ch s gim pht GDP) v t l Lm pht c bn (c th cng b hoc khng cng b m ch  s dng ni b tu tng quc gia). im khc nhau gia CPI, ch s gim pht GDP v t l Lm pht c bn l CPI v ch s gim pht GDP u do tng hp tt c cc nhn t tc ng ln Mc gi bao gm c sc p v cu, cung cng vi nhng trng ch k vng vo tng lai cn Lm pht thc cht chnh l t l lm pht  c iu ho theo cc yu t sc p bn cu cng vi nhng trng ch k vng vo tng lai v loi b nhng bin ng ln gy sc bn cung. V d i vi mt s loi gi c coi l bin ng ln, kh ngu nhin m khng theo bt k mt hng no nh trng hp ca cc loi lng thc thc phm bin ng theo thi v v theo cht lng ma mng, s gia tng ca gi du th cing thng xuyn chu tc ng bi nhn t tm thi, chng hn nh thi tit; nhng thay i v gi cc mt hng do nh nc qun l, thay i cc mc thu gin thu,... Tt c nhng ci  ch gy ra thay i tm thi mc gi v s bin mt sau  m khng a ra c xu hng ca lm pht v c bn v lu di. Do nhng bin ng ny u l nhng bin ng nht thi v gi c v lm mo m vic o lng xu hng lm pht nn u phi loi tr. Trn thc t, s rt kh khn trong vic xc nh liu nhng bin ng v gi c ch l tm thi hay chng ko di trong mt thi gian lu hn. Chng hn nh gi c du th. S tng gi ca du th ngoi s bin ng ma v do thi tit cn ph thuc ch yu vo nhu cu trung hn v du th trn th trng quc t v do  li ph thuc vo cc nhn t tng trng kinh t. Theo quan im ca cc nc nhp khu du, nhng thay i v t gi ca ng bn t so vi ng USD cing ng mt vai tr quan trng i vi s bin ng gi du. i vi cc loi thc phm theo thi v li c vn  l: Trong khi c nhng bin ng ln mang tnh t bin th gi c ca cc mt hng ny vn theo xu hng gi c chung. iu ny c bit quan trng trong trng hp nu ta loi hn cc loi gi c ny ra khi CPI th s loi b c phn bin ng mang tnh cht lu di ca cc nhm ny nn s tch hn chng khi xu hng chung v do  c th s lm thay i xu hng. Chnh v vy nu loi b hon ton v thng xuyn cc cu phn gi c nhin liu v lng thc thc phm thi v th xu hng lm pht khng bao gi c phn nh y . Hn na vic tch hn nhn t tm thi ra khi nhn t lu di cing rt kh khn. Do ,  khc phc nhc im ny nhiu NHTW ang tng cng s dng m hnh ho t l lm pht c bn  nc mnh theo hai cch ch yu: mt l xc nh cc thnh phn gi c d bin ng v quy nh mt quyn s thp trong tnh ton, nh vy nhng thng tin v loi gi c ny khng hon ton mt i. Hai l chia tch s bin ng ch s gi c tiu dng, hoc cc nhm hng ho ring l cu thnh CPI thnh nhng phn mang tnh tm thi v phn mang tnh thng xuyn v lu di, trong  phn c tnh lu di s biu th xu hng lm pht v t l lm pht khi  s c xc nh tng ng cho k hn di hn 1 nm. 2. Lm pht c bn ca mt s quc gia trn th gii Xu hng t nhiu nm nay trn th gii c bit  nhng nc cng nghip tin tin nh M hay cc nc EU  xem xt t l Lm pht c bn lm c s cho vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t. Tuy nhin, tu tng nc m nhng iu chnh c bit v phm vi gii hn tnh ton CPI ph thuc vo iu kin hon cnh v khi nim ca tng c quan thng k trung ng ca mi nc. V d: NHTW Anh ch loi b cc khon chi ph tr li mua nh tr chm v nu li sut cho vay ngn hn tng s dn n s gia tng tm thi ca lm pht; Ngoi ra  trnh cc tc ng ngoi mong mun ca chnh sch ti chnh ln chnh sch tin t, cc NHTW Canada, Phn lan v Thy in u loi b yu t thu gin thu ra khi t l lm pht c bn; NHTW Thy in cn loi tr gi cc loi nhin liu v nhng bin ng gi hng nhp khu ra khi ch s ny v Thy in l nc c t l nhp khu cao; NHTW M, Canaa, Australia, ECB loi b ch s gi nhin liu v cc loi thc phm theo thi v cha ch bin hoc C quan thng k lin minh Chu u loi b gi c thc phm, ru, thuc l v nhin liu (tham kho bng trang sau). Mc ch ca vic loi tr nhin liu, thc phm theo thi v trong chng mc no  c thuc l v ru ti khu vc s dng ng Euro l  lun c c ch s ng tin cy hn v xu hng lm pht. Mc d tn ti nhiu cch o lng khc nhau, nhng cc nh ngh)a khng phi ty tin,  u cing vy, tng ng sau khi nim lm pht c bn l nhng bin ng nht thi v gi c lm mo m vic o lng xu hng lm pht chung u phi loi tr. Tuy nhin t l lm pht c bn khng phi l mt ch s hng u v s thay i xu hng gi c v lm pht c bn ng nhin l rt quan trng i vi nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch, nhng i vi cng chng iu m h quan tm li chnh l Mc gi chung (CPI) v chnh sch tin lng. Khi , khng cn cch no khc hn l phi quan tm n nhiu ch s kinh t khc. Do c t l lm pht cng b v t l lm pht c bn u c nhng li ch v cc mt hn ch, tt nht l nn theo di c hai ch s ny  nh gi y  v tnh hnh lm pht hay n nh gi c th trng. i vi mt s nc trn th gii, nhng thng tin v xu hng rt quan trng vn ang cn b b qua trong cch tnh lm pht (k c lm pht c bn). Do vy, ch s ny phi thng xuyn c xem xt v iu chnh li cch tnh cho ph hp tnh hnh thc t  tng nc, tng khu vc. 3. Qu trnh nghin cu v tnh ton lm pht c bn ca Vit Nam: Bt u t nm 1998 cho n nay  Vit Nam din bin ca mc cung tin (M2)  khng cn ng vi quy lut vn ng ca Ch s gi tiu dng, thm ch cn ngc quy lut ( th). Tuy nhin ring din bin ch s gi ca nhm lng thc thc phm (LT-TP) lun theo st ch s gi tiu dng. iu ny c gii thch l do cc cn sc pha cung  tc ng n CPI mnh hn cc cn sc pha cu c ngh)a l s thay i ca mc cung tin M2 tc ng khng mnh bng s thay i ca gi c lng thc - thc phm. Bt u t hin tng thi tit bt thng El Nino v La Nina nm 1998 lm sn lng lng thc ton cu gim mnh  y ch s gi lng thc - thc phm (LT- TP) tng cao nn tc ng mnh ti CPI. n giai on 1999-2001 Vit Nam  tri qua mt giai on lm pht rt thp, thm ch c gim pht (1999: 0,1%; 2000:-0,6%; 2001: 0,8%) trong khi chnh sch tin t li lin tc ni lng trong giai on ny, c th li sut cho vay gim t mc 14,4%/nm (1998) xung cn 9%/nm (2001). Nguyn nhn ch yu l do gi LT,TP v nhiu nng sn khc gim mnh trn th trng th gii nh thc, go, c ph, cao su& th hin bi ch s gi xut khu LT-TP ca Vit Nam lin tc gim mnh: 1999: -6%; 2000: -9,6%; 2001: -14,2%. 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Do  c th kt lun lm pht lc ny ch yu xut pht t pha cung nn khng cn l ch bo tt cho vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t (CSTT) v ng nhin s lin quan n vic hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh t v) m khc. Xut pht t nhng bt cp trn, thng 7/2000 ti Hi tho v  ti lm pht c bn v cch d bo lm pht do Trung tm o to v Nghin cu ca cc NHTW ng Nam (SEACEN) t chc cho cc quan chc ca cc NHTW cc nc Chu ti Malaysia (ch yu l cc nc ang pht trin nh Innxia, Malayxia, Mng C, Npan, Philipine, Thi Lan, Trung Quc, Vit Nam v Srilanca), tt c cc thnh vin tham d hi tho u  nhn thc c s cn thit v tm quan trng ca ch s Lm pht c bn trong vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t ni ring v cng tc iu hnh chnh sch v) m ni chung ca mt quc gia. ? Vit Nam, t nm 2001 n nay, Tng cc Thng k v Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN)  nhn c s h tr k thut ca Chnh ph Thy S v nhng kin thc c bn v phng php tnh Lm pht c bn. Sau thi gian chun b kin thc v s liu, ngy 03/06/2004, ti cuc hp Hi ng T vn CSTT Quc gia, trn c s kin ca NHNN, Ch tch Hi ng - Ph Th tng thng trc Nguyn Tn Ding  giao Tng cc Thng k ch tr, phi hp vi NHNN v cc B, Ngnh c lin quan nghin cu xc nh t l lm pht c bn v iu ny  c th hin ti Thng bo s 08/HTCTTQG ngy 16/06/2004. Hin nay TCTK v NHNN ang trong qu trnh hon thin vic tnh ton ch s Lm pht c bn v nu mi vic din ra nh theo ng k hoch th bt u t nm 2006 Vit Nam c th chuyn sang giai on cng b ni b v kt qu th nghim tnh ton lm pht c bn. C th ni vic tnh ton lm pht c bn l kh cng phu v phc tp i hi kin thc cing nh kinh nghim phn tch v nh gi xu hng bin ng ca gi c v c s quan trng nht  tnh ton t l lm pht c bn chnh l cht lng chun xc v tnh kp thi ca cc s liu thng k v gi c c tp hp v x l trong tnh ton. Do  nu cho rng ch cn loi tr nhm lng thc thc phm trong 10 nhm hng ho cp I ra khi CPI  tnh lm pht c bn th kt qu tnh ton ny khng th coi l t l LPCB m ch c th coi l t l lm pht gi cc mt hng phi Lng thc-thc phm v nhng l do sau: Th nht: Quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm ca Vit nam kh cao:  Vit Nam, Lng thc - thc phm l mt trong 10 nhm hng ha ca r hng ha dch v tiu dng v y l nhm c quyn s ln nht (47,9%). Trong khi  trn th gii, ngay c nhng nc pht trin, do i sng v thu nhp  mc cao nn chi tiu cho nhm Lng thc - thc phm l nh (c ngh)a l quyn s ca nhm Lng thc -thc phm nh) nhng qua tham kho kinh nghim cc nc mc d quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm l nh nhng cing cha thy c quc gia no loi tr trc tip c nhm Lng-thc thc phm khi tnh LPCB v c cc nhm c loi tr cing cha c nc no loi tr qu 30% quyn s. Mt khc, theo s liu thng k, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tnh theo sc mua tng ng (PPP) ca Vit Nam d ang tng nhng vn  mc thp l 1996 USD/nm ti thi im nm 2001. Nu so snh ch trong khi ASEAN, th thu nhp bnh qun PPP ca Vit Nam ch cao hn Lo (1575 USD/nm) v Campuchia (1446 USD/nm). Do , li cng khng th loi b nhm Lng thc- thc phm. Th hai: Loi b c nhm Lng thc thc phm th c th va loi b nhm, va b st: V nguyn tc,  tnh LPCB th cn loi b cc nhm hng c gi c thay i t bin, nht thi. Do , nhm loi b thng ch l nhm cp III m khng th l nhm cp I. V d: Nht, Ty ban Nha loi tr nhm Lng thc cha ch bin; Anh ch loi tr Li sut cm c; M loi tr Lng thc v Nng lng, nhng khng loi tr Thc phm. Trong trng hp ca Vit Nam, nhm Lng thc - thc phm (nhm cp I) bao gm nhiu nhm nh khc nhau (3 nhm cp II hoc 20 nhm cp III); ng thi mi nhm nh cing c mc  bin ng gi c khc nhau. Do , nu loi b c nhm ln Lng thc-thc phm gm 20 nhm hng cp III m mi nhm ny li c mc  bin ng gi khc nhau, nh th c th li  va loi nhm nhng nhm nh khng c nhng thay i t bin, li  va b st nhng nhm khc c nhng thay i t bin nhng khng nm trong nhm Lng thc- thc phm, v d nh xng du. Th ba, loi b hon ton c nhm lng thc, thc phm c th loi b nhm c thnh phn Lm pht c bn: Trong nhm lng thc - thc phm, bn cnh nhng bin ng gi mang tnh nht thi, cing khng loi tr kh nng c s bin ng gi mang tnh lu di. Do , nu loi b hon ton c nhm Lng thc -thc phm th s loi b c thnh phn bin ng gi mang tnh cht lu di v c bn. Th t: Liu quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm ca Vit Nam hin nay l 47,9% c qu cao? i vi Vit Nam, qu trnh iu chnh quyn s nhm Lng thc - thc phm ca TCTK nh sau: Trc thi im thng 7/2001, quyn s ca nhm Lng thc - thc phm cn  mc 60,86%. Vi mc cao nh vy, mt s B, Ngnh  c kin vi TCTK v vic xem xt li cho ph hp v quyn s cc nhm hng  tnh ton CPI c xc nh t t kho st t nm 1994. Trong khi , t nm 1994-2000 nn kinh t Vit Nam  c nhng bc tng trng mnh, thu nhp ca cc h gia nh cing  tng ln, nn t trng chi tiu cho lng thc thc phm ca cc h gia nh cing gim xung. n nm 2000 TCTK  tin hnh mt t kho st mi, theo  quyn s ca nhm Lng thc-thc phm  c iu chnh gim xung mc 47,9% t thng 7/2001. Vi quyn s mi 47,9% i vi nhm Lng thc - Thc phm, c kin cho rng mc ny vn cn cao. Tuy nhin, hin nay trn 70% dn s Vit Nam l nng dn, thu nhp cn thp, nn t trng chi tiu cho lng thc thc phm chim a s. Hn na, ngay i vi khu vc thnh th cing rt nhiu h gia nh c chi tiu cho Lng thc thc phm hng thng cing phi khong trn di 30%. Mt khc,  c c con s ny, trong nm 2000 TCTK  trc tip iu tra c cu chi tiu ca cc h gia nh, trong khi  cc kin khc ch da trn s phn on. LM PHT C BN CNG B V S DNG NI B CA MT S QUC GIA TRN TH GII Quc giaLm pht c bn cng b chnh thcLm pht c bn s dng ni bCanada CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc, nng lng v thu gin thu - CPI loi tr trc tip 8 hng mc hay bin ng nht (t trng 16%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tm - CPI loi tr c sp xp (t trng 15%)Thi LanCPI loi tr trc tip lng thc ti sng v gi nng lng (t trng 23%)- CPI loi tr trc tip (t trng 10%)CCh s lm pht c bn ca Kho Bc - CPI loi tr trc tip - CPI xc nh gi trung tmNew ZealandCPI loi tr trc tip tin li phi trSingaporeCPI loi tr trc tip chi ph v nh  v giao thng ng b ca t nhn - CPI loi tr trc tip cc mt hng bin ng (t trng 30%) - CPI loi tr c sp xp (t trng 15%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tmNht bnCPI loi tr trc tip hng lng thc ti sngPeruCPI loi tr trc tip 9 hng mc (lng thc, rau v hoa qu, giao thng  th), t trng 21,2%.MCPI loi tr trc tip lng thc v nng lngAnhCh s gi bn l (RPI) loi tr li sut cm c- CPI loi tr trc tip (t trng 15%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tmChi lCPI loi tr c sp xp 20% mt hng c bin ng gi gim nhiu nht; v 8% mt hng c bin ng gi tng nhiu nhtColombiaCPI loi tr trc tip lng thc nng nghip, dch v cng v giao thngcCPI loi tr trc tip thu gin thuTy Ban NhaCPI loi tr trc tip lng thc cha ch bin H LanCPI loi tr trc tip rau, hoa qu v nng lngIrelandCPI loi tr trc tip tin li cm c CPI loi tr trc tip tin li cm c, gi lng thc v nng lngB o NhaCPI loi tr trc tip lng thc cha ch bin v nng lngPhilippinesCPI loi tr trc tip go, ng, rau v hoa qu, du, du ho, du diesel, du ho chng ct kerosene, du kh ho lng (t trng 18,4%)Thu inCPI loi tr trc tip thu gin thu, gi mt s nhin liu v hng nhp khu (1) Tm dch t ting Anh "Underlying (Core) inflation rate" hay cn gi l Lm pht c bn Ti liu tham kho 1. Core inflation - NHTW Thy s, BHF 2. Chuyn kho "Ch s gi tiu dng" - Thng 4/2000 3. Tin t ngn hng th trng ti chnh - Frederic S.Mishkin 4. 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