ࡱ> 5@ vbjbj22 ,lXX5@3338>35,Ǧb"7;;;;<=<=<=>@@@@@@$)R{Zd<=<"="<=<=d;;ŸŸŸ<=];;>Ÿ<=>Ÿ Ÿ;7 鮈C3:0ǦժժժX<=<=Ÿ<=<=<=<=<=dd$&)$ )PHNG PHP TNH TC  TNG NNG SUT CC NHN T TNG HP PGS.TS. Tng Vn Khin Vin trng Vin Khoa hc Thng k Nng sut cc nhn t tng hp (vit tt ting Anh l TFP) xt cho cng l kt qu sn xut mang li do nng cao hiu qu s dng vn v lao ng (cc nhn t hu hnh), nh vo tc ng ca cc nhn t v hnh nh i mi cng ngh, hp l ho sn xut, ci tin qun l, nng cao trnh  lao ng ca cng nhn,v.v... (gi chung l cc nhn t tng hp).  hiu r ni dung, bn cht ca ch tiu nng sut cc nhn t tng hp, iu kin p dng phng php v kh nng tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp bi vit s trnh by qu trnh hnh thnh cng thc tnh t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung, cch tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp theo phng php hch ton v theo hm sn xut Cobb-Douglass cing nh mi quan h gia cc phng php. 1. Cng thc tnh t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung. Khi nghin cu v nng sut trn c s ch tiu u ra l gi tr tng thm (k hiu l Y) v 2 ch tiu u vo: vn c nh (k hiu l K) v lao ng (k hiu l L), cng thc tnh mc nng sut tng hp chung (k hiu l P) nh sau:  EMBED Equation.3  (1) Trong  b l h s chuyn i t vn (tnh bng tin) v lao ng tnh bng ngi. V nh vy i lng b.K l lao ng quy i, lc  N = b.K + L v c gi l tng s lao ng x hi hoc tng s ngun lc sn xut. T  cng thc 1 suy ra: Y = P . N (2) T cng thc trn c:  EMBED Equation.3  Hoc IY = IP . IN (3) Trong : 0,1 k hiu cho k gc v k bo co; IY l ch s pht trin v gi tr tng thm; IP l ch s pht trin v nng sut tng hp chung; IN l ch s pht trin v ngun lc sn xut. Trn c s h thng ch s 3 (theo nguyn tc tnh s tuyt i ca ch s) ta c cng thc tnh kt qu sn xut (GTTT) mang li do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung ((Y(p)): (Y(p) = (P1 - P0). N1 (4) T  tip tc xy dng cng thc tnh t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut (GTTT) do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung ( EMBED Equation.3 ):  EMBED Equation.3  =  EMBED Equation.3  = IY - IN (5)  p dng c cng thc 5 cn phi tnh cc ch s gi tr tng thm (IY) v ch s ngun lc sn xut (IN). Trong thc t cng tc thng k vic tnh ch s gi tr tng thm c tin hnh mt cch thun tin trn c s s liu thng k v gi tr tng thm hng nm (theo gi so snh) c  cc cun nin gim hoc h thng s liu  tnh sn. Vn  cn li cn gii quyt l cch tnh ch s ngun lc sn xut (IN). Lao ng v vn l 2 i lng c n v tnh khc nhau (vn tnh bng tin cn lao ng tnh bng ngi), nn khng th cng trc tip vn vi lao ng ri em so snh gia cc thi k vi nhau  c ch s ngun lc sn xut.  c nhiu nh kinh t v thng k trn th gii a ra gii php khc phc kh khn trn bng cch quy i vn v lao ng hoc quy i lao ng v vn theo cc h s quy i vi nhng gi nh no  (theo cng thc 1 ta  gi thit c c h s quy i vn v lao ng b v khi  c tng s lao ng: N = b.K + L). Tuy nhin, nhng  ngh quy i nh trn l rt phc tp, hin vn cn  dng l thuyt v cha c nht tr cao nn cha a vo s dng. Ni cch khc, cha th p dng cng thc 5 ( dng khi qut)  tnh ton t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung trn c s ch s ngun lc c xc nh mt cch trc tip (quy i vn v lao ng v cng loi n v tnh  tng hp v so snh) 2. Tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp theo phng php hch ton Cng thc tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp ( EMBED Equation.3 ) Theo phng php hch ton do T chc Nng sut Chu a vo p dng c dng:  EMBED Equation.3  (6) Trong :  EMBED Equation.3  l tc  tng gi tr tng thm;  EMBED Equation.3 l tc  tng ca vn;  EMBED Equation.3 l tc  tng ca lao ng; ( v ( l h s ng gp ca vn v lao ng. ( =Thu nhp y  ca ngi L(7a)Gi tr tng thm v ( = 1 - ( (7b) Bin i cng thc 6 ta c:  EMBED Equation.3  =  EMBED Equation.3  (8) Trong  IY, IK v IL l cc ch s tc  pht trin (bng cc tc  tng tng ng l  EMBED Equation.3 ,  EMBED Equation.3 ,  EMBED Equation.3 cng vi 1). Tr li phn tch ch s pht trin ngun lc (IN) t cng thc 6. Khi tch ngun lc sn xut N thnh hai i lng c th (vn quy i v lao ng) th ch s pht trin ngun lc c dng:  EMBED Equation.3  (9a) Trong : K - vn v L - Lao ng .b - H s quy i vn v lao ng v bK  vn quy i v lao ng 0, 1  k hiu cho k gc v k bo co Ch s ngun lc theo cng thc 9a c th bin i  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  (9b) Trong   EMBED Equation.3 - t trng ca vn trong tng s vn v lao ng  EMBED Equation.3 - t trng ca lao ng trong tng s vn v lao ng v  EMBED Equation.3  Khi thay th t trng ca vn (dK) v t trng ca lao ng (dL) bng h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng (() trong vic to ra gi tr tng thm (gi thit t trng ca vn v lao ng tng ng t trng gi tr tng thm do vn v lao ng ro ra) th ch s pht trin ngun lc theo cng thc 9b c dng: IN = (IK + (IL (10) Thay cng thc 10 vo cng thc 5 s c:  EMBED Equation.3  (11) So snh cc cng thc 5, 8 v 11 nhn thy  EMBED Equation.3  Trong  ch s ngun lc (IN) c tnh nh l ch s bnh qun s hc gia quyn gia 2 ch s v vn (IK) v lao ng (IL) v cc quyn s l ( v ( (( + ( = 1) C c cc h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng (() theo phng php hch ton, cn c th xy dng c cng thc tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp nh cng thc 6 theo cch tip cn khc. Tht vy, khi ta tha nhn ( l h s ng gp ca vn v ( l h s ng gp ca lao ng (( + ( = 1) i vi vic to ra gi tr gia tng (Y) th cing c ngh)a l ch tiu gi tr gia tng c chia thnh hai phn: mt phn do vn to ra (Y ) bng ( nhn vi Y (Y = ( .Y) - c gi l gi tr tng thm ring phn ca vn, v mt phn do lao ng to ra (Y ) bng ( nhn vi Y (Y = (.Y) - c gi l gi tr tng thm ring phn ca lao ng. 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Trn c s phng trnh (13b) ta c h thng ch s:  EMBED Equation.3  hoc  EMBED Equation.3  = IPl x IL (14b) Trong :  EMBED Equation.3  - ch s gi tr tng thm ring phn ca lao ng IPl - ch s nng sut ring phn ca lao ng IL - ch s lao ng. T h thng ch s (14a) tnh c khi lng gi tr tng thm mang li do tng khi lng vn c nh:  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  (15a) T h thng ch s (14b) tnh c khi lng gi tr tng thm mang li do tng thm v s lng lao ng lm vic:  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  (15b) T cng thc (15a) c tc  tng ln ca gi tr tng thm do vn ng gp:  EMBED Equation.3  (16a) T cng thc (15b) c cng thc tnh tc  tng ln ca gi tr tng thm do lao ng ng gp:  EMBED Equation.3  (16b) Cng thc khi qut  tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp c dng: Tc  tng TFP=Tc  tng GTTT-Tc  tng GTTT do tng vn+Tc  tng GTTT do tng lao ng (17) Thay tc  tng gi tr tng thm ( EMBED Equation.3 ), tc  tng gi tr tng thm do vn ng gp ( EMBED Equation.3 nh cng thc 16a( v tc  tng gi tr tng thm do lao ng ng gp ( EMBED Equation.3  nh cng thc 16b( vo phng trnh (17) ta c:  EMBED Equation.3  (18) Nh vy vn  t ra  c chng minh (cng thc 18 chnh l cng thc 6). 3. Tnh tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp theo hm sn xut Cobb- Douglass Hm sn xut Cobb - Douglass nghin cu mi lin h gia kt qu sn xut (gi tr tng thm) vi vn v lao ng c dng:  EMBED Equation.3  (19) Trong :  EMBED Equation.3  l gi tr l thuyt v gi tr tng thm; P l mc nng sut bnh qun chung; K l vn c nh; L lao ng lm vic; ( h s ng gp ca vn; ( h s ng gp ca lao ng (vi ( + ( = 1). Tham s P v cc h s (, ( c th tnh c nh vo h phng trnh chun tc c xy dng trn c s p dng phng php bnh phng nh nht. Khi c c P, ( v ( (cc hng s) ln lt thay cc gi tr ca vn v lao ng tng nm i (Ki v Li) vo hm s ta s tnh c cc gi tr l thuyt ca cc nm  ( EMBED Equation.3 ) So snh gi tr l thuyt ca nm i vi nm trc nm i (i  1) ta s c:  EMBED Equation.3  (20) T cng thc 20 ta thy so snh gia  EMBED Equation.3  v  EMBED Equation.3 tham s P c c  t s v mu s nn trit tiu cho nhau, cn li s chnh lch gia 2 i lng ny  EMBED Equation.3 ch ph thuc vo s bin ng ca vn v lao ng v  chnh l ch s ngun lc (IN) phn nh s bin ng bnh qun chung ca hai i lng: ch s vn (IK) v ch s lao ng (IL): IN =  EMBED Equation.3 =  EMBED Equation.3  (21) V ( + ( = 1 Qua cch xy dng v bin i nh trn ta  tm c ch s pht trin ngun lc (IN) nh l s bnh qun hnh hc gia quyn gia 2 ch s pht trin v vn v lao ng vi quyn s l cc h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng ((). V d: C s liu v cc ch tiu ch yu ca ngnh sn xut  X qua cc nm thuc thi k 91-99 nh bng 1. T s liu bng 1 ta tnh ton cc ch tiu trung gian cn thit ri thay cc gi tr thc t ph hp vo h phng trnh chun tc v gii ra ta c: P = 23,56; ( = 0,642 ( = 1 - 0,642 = 0,358 Tip tc tnh cc ch s gi tr ti sn c nh v ch s lao ng qua cc nm v trn c s cc h s ( = 0,642 v ( = 0,358 p dng cng thc 20 ta tnh c ch s ngun lc nh ct 3 bng 2. BNG 1. MT S CH TIU CH YU QUA CC NM CA NGNH SN XUT  X NmGi tr tng thm theo gi 94 (tr.)Gi tr TSC theo gi 94 (tr.)Lao ng lm vic (ngi)K hiuYKLA123199117184216132170199219889228292231Bng 1 (Tip) A123199322381249602294199425454306822300199528140391812486199630856420392523199733480458762492199835408510602497199937032607452682 BNG 2. TNH CH S NGUN LC CHUNG CA TI SN C NH V LAO NG TTNmCh s gi tr TSC (IK)Ch s lao ng (IL)Ch s ngun lc (IN= EMBED Equation.3 )(*)AB12311991---219921,05631,02811,0461319931,09331,02821,0696419941,22921,00261,1428519951,27701,08091,2030619961,07291,01491,0518719971,09130,98771,0530819981,11301,00201,0719919991,18971,07411,1469B/q: 92-991,13791,02681,0968(*) Ghi ch: h s ( = 0,642 v ( = 0,358 tnh chung cho tt c cc nm. Theo s liu v tc  pht trin lin hon qua cc nm bnh qun chung ca vn v lao ng  ct 3 bng 2 ta tnh c tc  pht trin bnh qun nm thi k 92-99 ca ch tiu ny: IN = 1,0968 Vi tc  pht trin bnh qun nm thi k 91-99 ca gi tr tng thm ca ngnh  X IY = 110,07 v ngun lc sn xut tnh c  trn IN = 1,0968, p dng cng thc 5 ta tnh c t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung  EMBED Equation.3 : 110,07 - 109,68 = 0,39%. Qua qu trnh chng minh trn y cho thy tc  tng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp ( EMBED Equation.3 ) chnh l t l tng ln ca kt qu sn xut do nng cao nng sut tng hp chung v c tnh khi qut nh cng thc 5:  EMBED Equation.3 . Trong , ch s (tc ) pht trin ngun lc (IN) c tnh nh l a) ch s bnh qun s hc gia quyn gia 2 ch s vn (IK) v ch s lao ng (IL) vi quyn s l cc h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng (() nu tnh theo phng php hch ton v b) c tnh nh l ch s bnh qun hnh hc gia quyn gia 2 ch s vn (IK) v ch s lao ng (IL) vi quyn s l cc h s ng gp ca vn (() v h s ng gp ca lao ng (() nu tnh theo hm sn xut Cobb-Douglass. S khc nhau ca kt qu tnh ton tc  tng TFP theo phng php hch ton v phng php dng hm sn xut Cobb -Douglass ch yu ph thuc vo tr s khc nhau ca cc h s ng gp ca vn ( EMBED Equation.3 ) v h s ng gp ca lao ng ( EMBED Equation.3 ). 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