ࡱ> Z\Yj5@ Tbjbj22 (XX       F9F9F98~9d9$E~(;p;;;;]<]<]<|}~}~}~}~}~}~}$mR}] J=]<]<J=J=}  ;;}rrrJ=V2 ; ;|}rJ=|}rr$r  $r;; 2F9o$rHr4 ~0E~$rqL$r4T6     $r$]<"<r<<]<]<]<}}d5"8$r"8H S HON VN NI B V S DNG VO PHN TCH HIU QU KINH T D N U T Trn Th Ho Trng trung hc Kinh t H Ni 1. Gii thiu h s hon vn ni b IRR (Internal Rate of Return). 1.1. H s hon vn ni b l mc li sut m d n c th t c m bo cho tng cc khon thu ca d n cn bng vi cc khon chi  thi gian mt bng hin ti. 1.2.  tnh IRR c nhiu phng php nhng tnh IRR theo phng php ni suy thng c s dng v vic tnh ton khng phc tp,  chnh xc hp l c th chp nhn c. Cng thc:  EMBED Equation.3  (1) Trong : IRR: H s hon vn ni b cn ni suy (%) r1: T sut chit khu thp hn ti  NPV1 > 0 gn st 0 nht r2: T sut chit khu cao hn ti  NPV2 < 0 gn st 0 nht. NPV: Gi tr hin ti thc IRR cn tm (ng vi NPV = 0) s nm gia r1 v r2 (xem [1] tr 159) Bn cht IRR c th hin trong cng thc sau:  EMBED Equation.3  (2) Trong : n: S nm hot ng ca d n t: Nm bt u thc hin d n c coi l nm gc CIt: Gi tr lung tin mt thu ti nm t COt: Gi tr lung tin mt chi ti nm t (gm chi ph u t v chi ph vn hnh hng nm ca d n) (xem [1] tr 157). ( Nguyn tc s dng ch tiu ny: Mt d n u t c chp nhn khi c IRR  EMBED Equation.3  r min Trong  r min l li sut i vay nu phi vay vn  u t, c th l t sut li nhun nh mc do nh nc qui nh, nu vn u t do ngn sch cp. C th l chi ph c hi nu s dng vn t c  u t. Trong trng hp so snh nhiu d n c lp  la chn th d n no c IRR cao nht s l d n tt nht. 2. ng dng h s IRR trong phn tch hiu qu vn u t (trng hp trm chit np lpg Hi Phng). 2.1. S liu tm tt ca d n. ( Tng s vn u t: 9785 tr. ng Trong : - Vn t c ca cng ty: 10% - Vn vay: 90% - Mc li vay vn bnh qun l 9%/nm ( Thi gian xy dng trm l 1 nm (nm 2000) ( Thi gian hot ng ca d n (bao gm c thi gian xy dng) l 16 nm (2000  2015) ( n gi chit np 0,63405 triu ng/tn ( Khu hao u trong 5 nm bng 3,485% vn u t ( Thu VAT (10%) Thu thu nhp doanh nghip bng 32% li tc chu thu. Trn c s cc ti liu k thut, thit k v d bo th phn LPG ti Hi Phng v cc tnh khc  min Bc Vit Nam. Ngi ta d kin sn lng bn LPG, doanh thu hng nm nh s liu trong Bng 1 (Gi tr thu nhp hng nm) v Bng 2 (D tr cc khon thu  chi hng nm ca d n). 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"""("P"""" #P#p###$ffff4ffffffffgg gξβξΣΣξξΣΣξξΣΣΣΣΣΣξΣξUhxEhxECJOJQJaJhxECJOJQJaJhxEhxECJOJQJaJo(hxEhxECJOJQJaJ"hxEhxE5CJOJQJaJo(hxEhxE5CJOJQJaJ?68<FHJLW DDDDD$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalLNR\fvYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkdq $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkdX $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal",8HRYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd? $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalRTXbn~YFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd& $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd $$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal",YFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal,.4>JZdYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 laldflvYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal YFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkdw$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal *:DYFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkd^$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lalDFLVbr|YFFFFF$d$Ifa$gdxEkdE$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal|~ YF"F"3D30$d$Ifa$gdxE$dxx`a$gdxEkd,$$Iflr$ Bdp04 lal b pRDB0/;$d$Ifa$gdxEd$IfgdxEd$IfgdxEkd$$Ifl4F$ !0!    4 lalf4$d$Ifa$gdxE ! !! !*!,!0!D!H!R!\!f!p!z!!!!!!!<;<;<;<D0;<;<;<;<D0;Ffd$IfgdxE$d$Ifa$gdxEFf-$d$Ifa$gdxE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!""<;<;<;<D0;<;<;<;<D0;Ffb"d$IfgdxE$d$Ifa$gdxEFf$d$Ifa$gdxE""" """$"&"("*"."P"R"\"f"p"z""""""""<;<;<;<D0;<;<;<;<HD0;Ff0)d$IfgdxE$d$Ifa$gdxEFf%$d$Ifa$gdxE"""""""""" ###"#*#2#<#F#P#R#V#p#x#<;<;<;<D0;<;<;<;<D0;Ff/d$IfgdxE$d$Ifa$gdxEFf,$d$Ifa$gdxEx#################fff<;<;<;<D0;<;<;<;<7Ff6$ !d$Ifa$gdxE$d$Ifa$gdxE$d$Ifa$gdxEFfe3$d$Ifa$gdxE643387Cn i thu chi-9918660136620362405305236354106Bng 2: d tr cn i thu chi (tip) SttCh tiuNm hot ngACc khon thu200820092010201120122013201420151Doanh thu913091309130913091309130913091302Vn u tBCc khon chi1Vn u t2Chi ph vn hnh159516281663170517421780181918603Thu VAT9139139139139139139139134Thu li tc211921092097208420722060204720345Tin li vay6Tng chi462746504673470247274723477948077Cn i thu chi450344804457442844034377435143232.2. Tnh ton cc ch tiu phn tch Cn c vo s liu trong bng 1 v bng 2 ta tnh : a: Ch tiu Gi tr hin ti thc (NPV) theo cng thc sau:  EMBED Equation.3  (3) Cc k hiu r, n, CIt, COt, tng t cng thc (1), (2) NCFt: gi tr lung tin mt thc c sau cn bng thu chi ti nm t Vn dng cng thc (3) ta tnh gi tr hin ti thc NPV Kt qu tnh ton: NPV(r = 9%) bng 14.935,123 triu ng b: Tnh ch tiu h s hon vn ni b IRR Vi kt qu m tm gi tr r1 = 23,5% V r2 = 24% Th NPV(r1) = 182.192 triu ng V NPV(r2) = - 73667,89 triu ng Vn dng cng thc (3) ta c:  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  Kt qu ny cho thy IRR = 23,86%, tc l nh hn r (r= 9%) ( d n t hiu qu kinh t cao v hon ton chp nhn c theo phng din ny. 3. Kt lun Qua vic vn dng ch tiu h s hon vn ni b IRR  phn tch hiu qu kinh t ca d n kh thi trm chit np LPG Hi Phng, c th rt ra mt s nhn xt nh sau: - u im + H s hon vn ni b IRR l ch tiu hay c s dng  m t tnh hp dn ca d n v IRR l ch tiu th hin tnh li nhun ca d n, mt mt n biu hin li sut m d n mang li trn vn u t, mt khc n th hin t l li vay vn ti a m d n c th chp nhn c. y l u im quan trng nht. Vic s dng tiu chun ny thch hp vi trng hp v l do no  ngi nh gi mun trnh vic xc nh t sut chit khu c th dng  nh gi gi tr hin ti thc ca d n (NPV) - Nhc im + Vic p dng ch tiu ny c th khng chnh xc nu tn ti cc khon cn bng thu chi thc (NCF) m ng k trong giai on vn hnh d n. Lc  NPV ca d n s i du nhiu ln khi chit khu theo t sut chit khu khc nhau v ng vi mi ln i du l mt ln xc nh IRR khc nhau m ta khng bit gi tr no l thch hp cho vic nh gi. + Tiu chun ny s cho bit kt qu sai lch trong trng hp so snh cc phng n loi tr nhau. + Vic tnh IRR s phc tp i vi nhng ngi tnh ton bng tay. 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